The newest debate raging amongst Flame's fan these days is: who will ride the left side on the #1 line come winter?
Course, the assumption is that both Iginla and Tanguay will be the primary fixtures on the top scoring unit. If you take Sutter's assertion that Tangs will be skating down the middle as a Flaming "C" at face value, then the left-winger to complete the trio becomes the lone unknown.
Considering the Flame's depth on the left side:
Kristian Huselius
Marcus Nilson
Jeff Friesen
(Eric Nystrom?)
the natural choice seems to be Kristian Huselius. He's got top-notch stickhandling and puck-distribution skills and is a great producer on the PP. Personally, however, I would prefer to see Juice on the 2nd unit with Damond Langkow and Chuck Kobasew (both de facto 2nd liners since Tanguay and Iginla are the unquestioned #1 guys at those respective positions). As I recall, Langkow and Juice were perhaps the only forward tandem that developed a modicum of chemistry last season. In addition, it would probably be beneficial to spread out the offensive threats across two lines (can't remember the last time I said that about the Flames) rather than concentrate all the firepower on the top unit. So, basically, Im hoping the Huselius-Tanguay-Iginla line is the first PP unit rather than the #1 even-strength unit.
Marcus Nilson? He's a checking line winger. He'll be killing penalties and playing against other #1 lines all year with Stephane Yelle no doubt. So scratch Nilson.
As for Eric Nystrom, Im not even sure he'll make the team...let alone get time with Tangs and Iginla.
Therefore, as far as natural left-wingers go, Jeff Friesen is the last choice. And considering his rather dreadful season last year, it doesn't seem to be a very savory one. For those uninformed few, Friesen played for the Capitals and the Ducks in 05/06 and only managed to accrue a paltry 11 points in 51 GP. That's a 17 point year had he played the full 82 games. Which is just bad. Really, really bad.
Fortunately, if one were to look at Friesen's career thus far, it's probably reasonable to consider last season an abberation - he's scored 20+ goals and 50+ points five times previously. He was drafted in the first round back '94 with the view of becoming a goal-scorer at the NHL level. So there's obviously some ability there. The question remains whether Friesen is actually a worthy reclamation project or just another failed experiment who is swiftly and inexorably sinking into career-4th-liner obscurity.
With that question in mind, I went about investigating Friesen's even-strength and powerplay production efficiency over the 2 seasons prior to 05/06. I figured by treating his most recent performance as the statistical abortion it appears to be, I may be able to determine his true utility as an offensive player...
In 02/03, Friesen played approximately 1259 total minutes, 1042 of which were ES and 207 were PP minutes. That year with the Devils he scored 43 ESP and 8 PPP. His ESP/60 and PPP/60 stats came out to about 2.48 and 2.32, respectively. While the former is superior to most Flames forwards (from the 05/06 season), it's probably a rather median figure in terms of top 6 forwards in the league. The latter number is pretty much pitiful, considering that Jordan Leopold's most recent ESP/60 stat was 3.25. Ouch.
In 03/04, Friesen's offensive production went down. He played similar minutes (1226 total, 1035 ES and 18 PP) but only produced 26 ESP and 11 PPP. That translates to an ESP/60 stat of approx. 1.51 and a PPP/60 stat of 3.53. While his PP proficiency managed to reach that of, say, a servicable 1st unit defenseman, his even-strength proficiency dived to the level of a 4th liner. Hmm...not good.
I figured I might as well average the numbers over the 2 seasons, so I summed the relevant ice-times and offensive stats and generated an "overall" ESP/60 stat of 1.99 and a PPP/60 figure of 2.89.
So, yeah...crappy. Nothing about these figures says "first-line winger" to me. If anything, Friesen seems to be charted on that course to obscurity I mentioned above. I suppose there are some other factors worth considering here - Friesen was stuck behind Patrik Elias on the depth charts in NJ, which no doubt limited (to a degree) the amount he played with "top-line talent". In addition, the Devils were hardly an offensive force from 02-04. In fact, even though Friesen managed a mere 37 points in 03/04, he actually placed 3rd on the Devils behind Gomez and Elias as far as point-getters were concerned (keep in mind, however, that the drop-off was a fairly significant one: Elias scored 81 points and Gomez 70). In addition, I suppose I could have employed Friesen's career numbers for this investigation, although it's questionable how relevant his 62 point performance in 96/97 would be, at least in terms of trying to predict his performance for the 05/06 season - to this end, his more recent numbers probably have more utility.
Overall, there's a good chance Friesen will get some time on the top line, by virtue of his being a left-winger, but he likely won't do a lot while there if the stats are to be trusted. Were I to guess, I'd predict Friesen will eventually be relegated to 3rd/4th line duty with Amonte and Lundmark.
As far as the #1 line goes...I'd personally prefer to see Lombo gunning down the left-wing with Iginla and Tangs (assuming he'll be re-signed, that is). With the Flame's sudden over-flow of centermen (Tanguay, Langkow, Yelle, Lundmark, Ritchie, Lombardi), converting one of the face-off men to the wing will no doubt be a necessity anyhow. Lombo is fast, an excellent passer and showed some chemistry with Iginla in his rookie season (IIRC). And he's left-handed. If the Flames management (ie Sutter) is serious about developing Lombardi into a offensive forward, I can't think of a better way to accomplish that feat than granting him significant ice-time with the likes of Iginla and Tanguay. While re-invigorating the career of a 30 year-old ex-goal-scorer (who appears to have settled into mediocrity) may be a worthwhile experiment...I'd prefer to bank on developing a future sniper in Lombardi with our potentially potent, first-line assests (Iginla, Tamguay) this coming season.
Monday, July 31, 2006
Thursday, July 27, 2006
Where For Art Thou Lombo?
Let's see...
Tanguay signed, Kobasew signed, Huselius signed. Check, check, check. Simon and Donovan let go, Zyuzin acquired. Yelle inked to a couple more years. Everything seems to be in order...
...except the Lombardi situation. WTF is going on there?
It's hard to guess, primarily because there have been precious few details released about the subject. Pretty much all I know is that Lombo didn't accept his qualifying offer. What I *think* that means he is technically a restricted FA - one who is most porbably trying to garner more money from the Flames.
Even with that in mind, it's hard to fathom how this situation has stretched on for so long. Lombo simply doesn't have the statistical leverage to argue for a "financially prohibitive" contract (prohibitive from a club/cap perspective) - he's played 134 NHL games and scored at a rate of 0.41 PPG during that time. Last season, Lombardi managed only 6 goals and 20 assists in 55 games. That's a 39 point season, extrapolated over 82 games. Which is nothing to write home about and hardly worthy of any sort of significant raise.
Perhaps it's the length that is causing the impasse. Because Lombo probably can't argue for anything above $1 million/season, Sutter may be fishing for a longer term contract - say three or four years. Four years at $1 million per would no doubt become a steal should Lombardi actually blossom into a top 6 forward. Course, Lombo's agent knows this and is arguing for the raise + a shorter term contract. Two years max?
I guess the final sticking point could be bonuses/incentives. The agent in question probably realizes that:
1.) His client doesn't have impressive stats and therefore can't demand a big base salary.
2.) The Flames consider him an offensive prospect and hope to develop him into a scoring center.
Therefore, the big money for Matthew may reside in performance incentives. Can't argue for $2 million in base pay? Go for the "$500,000 for 20 goals" and "$750,000 for 60 points" clauses. On the other side of the table, Sutter undoubtedly knows that big performance incentives will drain most of the value on the dollar he'd be gleaning from a player like Lombo: getting "more" for "less" from young, homegrown talent is basically the new way to win in a salary-capped league. Hence the delay. Sutter doesn't want to lock Lombardi in for a few years at a relatively meagre salary figure only to have to pay out "fair value" should he actually perform.
I'm pulling this outta my ass, for anyone who hasn't come to that conclusion already. Hell, maybe all parties concerned went on vacation and agreed to negotiate in August and there's nothing more to it than that. However, going into the off-season I would have assumed Lombardi's to be one of the easier contracts to get negotiated and signed...which leads to the paranoid ramblings above.
Whatever the cause of the delay, I hope he's re-signed soon: $1 million/year, 4 years, (incentives minimal).
Tanguay signed, Kobasew signed, Huselius signed. Check, check, check. Simon and Donovan let go, Zyuzin acquired. Yelle inked to a couple more years. Everything seems to be in order...
...except the Lombardi situation. WTF is going on there?
It's hard to guess, primarily because there have been precious few details released about the subject. Pretty much all I know is that Lombo didn't accept his qualifying offer. What I *think* that means he is technically a restricted FA - one who is most porbably trying to garner more money from the Flames.
Even with that in mind, it's hard to fathom how this situation has stretched on for so long. Lombo simply doesn't have the statistical leverage to argue for a "financially prohibitive" contract (prohibitive from a club/cap perspective) - he's played 134 NHL games and scored at a rate of 0.41 PPG during that time. Last season, Lombardi managed only 6 goals and 20 assists in 55 games. That's a 39 point season, extrapolated over 82 games. Which is nothing to write home about and hardly worthy of any sort of significant raise.
Perhaps it's the length that is causing the impasse. Because Lombo probably can't argue for anything above $1 million/season, Sutter may be fishing for a longer term contract - say three or four years. Four years at $1 million per would no doubt become a steal should Lombardi actually blossom into a top 6 forward. Course, Lombo's agent knows this and is arguing for the raise + a shorter term contract. Two years max?
I guess the final sticking point could be bonuses/incentives. The agent in question probably realizes that:
1.) His client doesn't have impressive stats and therefore can't demand a big base salary.
2.) The Flames consider him an offensive prospect and hope to develop him into a scoring center.
Therefore, the big money for Matthew may reside in performance incentives. Can't argue for $2 million in base pay? Go for the "$500,000 for 20 goals" and "$750,000 for 60 points" clauses. On the other side of the table, Sutter undoubtedly knows that big performance incentives will drain most of the value on the dollar he'd be gleaning from a player like Lombo: getting "more" for "less" from young, homegrown talent is basically the new way to win in a salary-capped league. Hence the delay. Sutter doesn't want to lock Lombardi in for a few years at a relatively meagre salary figure only to have to pay out "fair value" should he actually perform.
I'm pulling this outta my ass, for anyone who hasn't come to that conclusion already. Hell, maybe all parties concerned went on vacation and agreed to negotiate in August and there's nothing more to it than that. However, going into the off-season I would have assumed Lombardi's to be one of the easier contracts to get negotiated and signed...which leads to the paranoid ramblings above.
Whatever the cause of the delay, I hope he's re-signed soon: $1 million/year, 4 years, (incentives minimal).
Friday, July 21, 2006
Tanguay - To Score or Not to Score
I finally got around to compiling some "basic plus" stats for Tanguay - namely the ESP/60 and PPP/60 numbers. I also managed to dredge up the stats for some of the other Av's forwards last year - mainly to place Tanguay in the context of his teammates.
Anyhoo, here are the results:
Observations:
- Overall, Im fairly pleased with the results. Tanguay played more than 930 minutes of even strength hockey last season and, as you can see, he managed to produce points at a pretty significant clip (3.15 points per 60 minutes). He played the third most (forward) ES minutes on the team (behind Sakic and Laperriere) and still managed to be tops in terms of ESP/60. From a Calgary Flames perspective, this is very good news. As you may or may not know from the previous work I put in, the Flames were nothing short of horrible at ES scoring in 05/06. Calgary's top (high minutes) player, Jarome Iginla, only scored at a rate of 1.80/60 minutes last year: that's barely over half of Tanguay's number! Hell, even Ian Laperriere did better than Jarome! Clearly, the Flames needed some help in this department. While there are probably some team/systemic issues that contributed to Calgary's weak ESP stats, adding the top ESP player from the Avs is still a big step in the right direction.
- The PPP/60 results were a little surprising, largely due to the number Andrew Brunette managed to put up. It's not like he benefitted from a couple of 2nd assists on the occasional PP shift either - Brunette played 310 PP minutes, good for 4th most among forwards. As for Tanguay, he played 354 minutes (2nd behind Sakics 438) and managed to generate about 4.92 points/60 minutes played. Comparison-wise, Tanguay's PPP/60 and PP minutes played stats are almost identical to Damond Langkow's numbers from last season (4.94 PPP/60, 352 minutes). Between the two teams overall, the rookie Marek Svatos managed to score the highest in terms of powerplay efficiency (5.62 PPP/60), while Kristian Huselius came in a close second (5.54 PPP/60). Svatos played about 70 less minutes less than Juice on the PP thanks to his injury shortened season, but it's hard to say whether that would make a huge difference (I have no interest in trying to calculate variance and statistical significance...sorry).
As I mentioned, Im pleased with the results. Tanguay's main strength, ES production, was the Flame's primary area of weakness last season. The challenge, or course, will be to adequately harnass the potential for more ES goals that Tanguay's addition brings. He obviously CAN get the job done, but the question remains WILL HE be able to do it under the relatively "offensively oppressive" Flames system...
Anyhoo, here are the results:
Observations:
- Overall, Im fairly pleased with the results. Tanguay played more than 930 minutes of even strength hockey last season and, as you can see, he managed to produce points at a pretty significant clip (3.15 points per 60 minutes). He played the third most (forward) ES minutes on the team (behind Sakic and Laperriere) and still managed to be tops in terms of ESP/60. From a Calgary Flames perspective, this is very good news. As you may or may not know from the previous work I put in, the Flames were nothing short of horrible at ES scoring in 05/06. Calgary's top (high minutes) player, Jarome Iginla, only scored at a rate of 1.80/60 minutes last year: that's barely over half of Tanguay's number! Hell, even Ian Laperriere did better than Jarome! Clearly, the Flames needed some help in this department. While there are probably some team/systemic issues that contributed to Calgary's weak ESP stats, adding the top ESP player from the Avs is still a big step in the right direction.
- The PPP/60 results were a little surprising, largely due to the number Andrew Brunette managed to put up. It's not like he benefitted from a couple of 2nd assists on the occasional PP shift either - Brunette played 310 PP minutes, good for 4th most among forwards. As for Tanguay, he played 354 minutes (2nd behind Sakics 438) and managed to generate about 4.92 points/60 minutes played. Comparison-wise, Tanguay's PPP/60 and PP minutes played stats are almost identical to Damond Langkow's numbers from last season (4.94 PPP/60, 352 minutes). Between the two teams overall, the rookie Marek Svatos managed to score the highest in terms of powerplay efficiency (5.62 PPP/60), while Kristian Huselius came in a close second (5.54 PPP/60). Svatos played about 70 less minutes less than Juice on the PP thanks to his injury shortened season, but it's hard to say whether that would make a huge difference (I have no interest in trying to calculate variance and statistical significance...sorry).
As I mentioned, Im pleased with the results. Tanguay's main strength, ES production, was the Flame's primary area of weakness last season. The challenge, or course, will be to adequately harnass the potential for more ES goals that Tanguay's addition brings. He obviously CAN get the job done, but the question remains WILL HE be able to do it under the relatively "offensively oppressive" Flames system...
Wednesday, July 19, 2006
Nerding Out...Cont'd
So I kept one of my promises from this recent post and calculated the 05/06 PPP/60 (Power Play Points per 60 minutes) for each Flames player.
Here are the results:
Observations:
- Andrew Ference was surprisingly efficient at producing points with the man advantage. While his number is higher than The Dion's, keep in mind that he only played about 219 PP minutes last season - significantly less than Phaneuf's 436 minutes. In fact, if memory serves, Ference gathered a great deal of his powerplay points feeding Phaneuf passes while Hamrlik was down with injury. That being said, it seems like he should probably be granted some significant PP time next season, with or without Hamrlik in the line-up.
- Kristian Huselius is, apparently, The Man on the powerplay. At least as far as the forwards are concerned (don't want to anger The Dion). He played the third most minutes of any forward on the PP (next to Iginla and Langkow) and still managed to put up a pretty significant number. I think we know who'll be flanking Tanguay and Iginla on the first unit next year. At least, we know who should be.
- Hamrlik was brought in last summer with the hopes he'd be an offensive weapon on the point during the man advantage. Didn't really happen. Even though he was injured a great deal, Hamrlik played on the PP slightly more than Ference (251 minutes vs. 219). but managed to be less efficient at producing points. Hopefully this coming season Hammer can
a.) stay healthy and
b.) produce at a better rate on the PP.
Especially for his $3.5 million. Hell, even Robyn Regehr, he of the "defensive defenseman" persuasion produced at an equivalent rate. For now, I guess I can give Hamrlik the benefit of the doubt and assume his various injuries were impeding his offensive abilities. Although, it would be nice to see Roman's career PPP/60 stat - maybe it's the expectations about Hamrlik's production that are out of line?
- Surprisingly, Langkow was slightly better than Iginla in this department last year. Although, I don't know how much significantly different 4.94 is from 4.21 (keep in mind, Langkow played almost 100 minutes less than Jarome).
- Stephane Yelle: better than Kobasew, Amonte and Lombardi on the PP? Only thanks to a small sample size...he played a mere 60 minutes 5on4 last season. Should Yelle ever get a regular PP shift (he won't), expect that number to go WAY down.
- Jordan Leopold was pretty bad in this department too last year. Course, you already know that.
As useless as this information seems to be (Leopold isn't even a Flame anymore), it might be interesting for comparison purposes once hockey gets going again. With the apparent promise of more offense next season, it'll be worthwhile to examine each player's performance in light of this past year's stats.
Next up...Tanguay, Friesen and Zyuzin ESP and PPP.
Here are the results:
Observations:
- Andrew Ference was surprisingly efficient at producing points with the man advantage. While his number is higher than The Dion's, keep in mind that he only played about 219 PP minutes last season - significantly less than Phaneuf's 436 minutes. In fact, if memory serves, Ference gathered a great deal of his powerplay points feeding Phaneuf passes while Hamrlik was down with injury. That being said, it seems like he should probably be granted some significant PP time next season, with or without Hamrlik in the line-up.
- Kristian Huselius is, apparently, The Man on the powerplay. At least as far as the forwards are concerned (don't want to anger The Dion). He played the third most minutes of any forward on the PP (next to Iginla and Langkow) and still managed to put up a pretty significant number. I think we know who'll be flanking Tanguay and Iginla on the first unit next year. At least, we know who should be.
- Hamrlik was brought in last summer with the hopes he'd be an offensive weapon on the point during the man advantage. Didn't really happen. Even though he was injured a great deal, Hamrlik played on the PP slightly more than Ference (251 minutes vs. 219). but managed to be less efficient at producing points. Hopefully this coming season Hammer can
a.) stay healthy and
b.) produce at a better rate on the PP.
Especially for his $3.5 million. Hell, even Robyn Regehr, he of the "defensive defenseman" persuasion produced at an equivalent rate. For now, I guess I can give Hamrlik the benefit of the doubt and assume his various injuries were impeding his offensive abilities. Although, it would be nice to see Roman's career PPP/60 stat - maybe it's the expectations about Hamrlik's production that are out of line?
- Surprisingly, Langkow was slightly better than Iginla in this department last year. Although, I don't know how much significantly different 4.94 is from 4.21 (keep in mind, Langkow played almost 100 minutes less than Jarome).
- Stephane Yelle: better than Kobasew, Amonte and Lombardi on the PP? Only thanks to a small sample size...he played a mere 60 minutes 5on4 last season. Should Yelle ever get a regular PP shift (he won't), expect that number to go WAY down.
- Jordan Leopold was pretty bad in this department too last year. Course, you already know that.
As useless as this information seems to be (Leopold isn't even a Flame anymore), it might be interesting for comparison purposes once hockey gets going again. With the apparent promise of more offense next season, it'll be worthwhile to examine each player's performance in light of this past year's stats.
Next up...Tanguay, Friesen and Zyuzin ESP and PPP.
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
Nerding Out
Pursuant to this post over at Battle of Alberta, I figured I'd try my hand at conjuring some "basic plus" stats for Calgary players from the previous regular season.
I decided that my first, trembling step into statistical geekdom would be to do some ESP/60 (even strength points produced per 60 minutes worth of ice-time) . To that end, I went over to nhl.com and simply copied the available ice-time stats into an excel spreadsheet. Observe:
The data was sorted according to total ice-time over the course of the year from most to least (yup, that's Dion Phaneuf leading the team). Also included in the dataset (but outside of the screencapture to the left) was total PP and SH ice-time as well as averaged ES, PP and SH ice-time per game.
Some items of interest before we proceed: Jordan Leopold was 3rd on the team in terms of total ice-time, even though he only played 74 games. While his ESP/60 stat is abysmal (as you will see below), it should be noted that his was a fairly significant loss, defensive-minutes-wise, on the back-end. Let's hope that the Zyuzin can step in and adequately fill that hole next year...
Anyways, back on track. Next, I rounded the total even-strenght ice-time for each player to the nearest minute. While this may skew the results a tiny bit, the degree of error is probably negligible.
After gathering the ice-time info, I transcribed all of the ES, PP and SH point totals for each player into the speadsheet. The final step was to set-up the ol' formula bar to calculate ESP/60 employing the data mentioned.
The results:
The Observations:
- Some players, like Germyn, Giordano, Ritchie and Macdonald were excluded. They didn't play enough minutes nor gather enough points to generate any kind of significant number.
- Lundmark, Leclerc and Lombardi's ESP/60 numbers are somewhat inflated due to (relatively) small sample size. They each played only 437, 514 and 566 ES minutes repsectively. In addition, Mike Leclerc's ESP stat is probably totally irrelevant in terms of production as a Flame: he only played 15 of his 50 games in Calgary silks and produced a mere 5 points in that time. Some encouragement may be gleaned from both Lombardi and Lundmark's decent numbers, though. Especially considering that Lundmark scored 10 points in 12 games with Calgary, despite only averaging about 8-10 minutes per game. It's hard to say how much their numbers would dip if they were consistently given more minutes against harder (say, top 2 defensemen) opposition.
- Chris Simon was actually better at producing at ES than I expected. He didn't get a lot of ice-time, 636 minutes in 72 games, which likely speaks to his utility as an all around player.
- Despite his relatively sub-par season, Jarome was still the top ES producer (for a high minutes player) on the team. I would be interested to see how this compared to other top point-getters across the league (not too favorably I would guess).
- Dion Phanuef was the best ES scoring defenseman, despite getting most of his points on the PP (although his number is still below the likes of Stephane Yelle).
- Shean Donovan and Juice were actually pretty comparable in terms of production at ES. Keep in mind, though, that Huselius had a terrible start to the year in Florida (8 points in 24 GP). In addition, Huselius gathered more than half of his points on the PP (28 of 47).
- As we all knew, Jordan Leopold had a horrendous season, offensively (His PP stats are only marginally better). I expect him to be at least twice as good (0.76 ESP/60) with Colorado next season.
I'll look into doing up some ESP numbers for Tanguay (if I feel like it) in the near future. It'll be interesting to see how he compares - course his ESP production on a team like Colorado will undoubtedly be a little chubby as compared to the Flame's roster. I suppose I could interpret his ESP number in the context of the entire avalanche team...
...*sigh* this is a lot of work.
In the meantime, I may put together some PPP/60 for Flames players from last year. Or... I may just revert to linking to tsn.ca reports and making glib comments. I guess we'll see.
I decided that my first, trembling step into statistical geekdom would be to do some ESP/60 (even strength points produced per 60 minutes worth of ice-time) . To that end, I went over to nhl.com and simply copied the available ice-time stats into an excel spreadsheet. Observe:
The data was sorted according to total ice-time over the course of the year from most to least (yup, that's Dion Phaneuf leading the team). Also included in the dataset (but outside of the screencapture to the left) was total PP and SH ice-time as well as averaged ES, PP and SH ice-time per game.Some items of interest before we proceed: Jordan Leopold was 3rd on the team in terms of total ice-time, even though he only played 74 games. While his ESP/60 stat is abysmal (as you will see below), it should be noted that his was a fairly significant loss, defensive-minutes-wise, on the back-end. Let's hope that the Zyuzin can step in and adequately fill that hole next year...
Anyways, back on track. Next, I rounded the total even-strenght ice-time for each player to the nearest minute. While this may skew the results a tiny bit, the degree of error is probably negligible.
After gathering the ice-time info, I transcribed all of the ES, PP and SH point totals for each player into the speadsheet. The final step was to set-up the ol' formula bar to calculate ESP/60 employing the data mentioned.
The results:
The Observations:- Some players, like Germyn, Giordano, Ritchie and Macdonald were excluded. They didn't play enough minutes nor gather enough points to generate any kind of significant number.
- Lundmark, Leclerc and Lombardi's ESP/60 numbers are somewhat inflated due to (relatively) small sample size. They each played only 437, 514 and 566 ES minutes repsectively. In addition, Mike Leclerc's ESP stat is probably totally irrelevant in terms of production as a Flame: he only played 15 of his 50 games in Calgary silks and produced a mere 5 points in that time. Some encouragement may be gleaned from both Lombardi and Lundmark's decent numbers, though. Especially considering that Lundmark scored 10 points in 12 games with Calgary, despite only averaging about 8-10 minutes per game. It's hard to say how much their numbers would dip if they were consistently given more minutes against harder (say, top 2 defensemen) opposition.
- Chris Simon was actually better at producing at ES than I expected. He didn't get a lot of ice-time, 636 minutes in 72 games, which likely speaks to his utility as an all around player.
- Despite his relatively sub-par season, Jarome was still the top ES producer (for a high minutes player) on the team. I would be interested to see how this compared to other top point-getters across the league (not too favorably I would guess).
- Dion Phanuef was the best ES scoring defenseman, despite getting most of his points on the PP (although his number is still below the likes of Stephane Yelle).
- Shean Donovan and Juice were actually pretty comparable in terms of production at ES. Keep in mind, though, that Huselius had a terrible start to the year in Florida (8 points in 24 GP). In addition, Huselius gathered more than half of his points on the PP (28 of 47).
- As we all knew, Jordan Leopold had a horrendous season, offensively (His PP stats are only marginally better). I expect him to be at least twice as good (0.76 ESP/60) with Colorado next season.
I'll look into doing up some ESP numbers for Tanguay (if I feel like it) in the near future. It'll be interesting to see how he compares - course his ESP production on a team like Colorado will undoubtedly be a little chubby as compared to the Flame's roster. I suppose I could interpret his ESP number in the context of the entire avalanche team...
...*sigh* this is a lot of work.
In the meantime, I may put together some PPP/60 for Flames players from last year. Or... I may just revert to linking to tsn.ca reports and making glib comments. I guess we'll see.
Friday, July 14, 2006
Jerseys
Chunkymoose copy and paste this into your profile:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/596/1066/200/chunky_moose.jpg
Madmac copy and paste this into your profile:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/596/1066/200/madmac.jpg
Metrognome copy and paste this into your profile:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/596/1066/200/metrognome_78.jpg
Cantaloupehalves Copy and paste this into your profile:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/596/1066/200/cantaloupe.jpg
Thursday, July 13, 2006
Chasing Gomez
Time for some (non-erotic) fantasizing...
So everyone knows the New Jersey Devils are in cap trouble. And I mean BIG TIME cap trouble. According to tsn, their current signed roster looks like:
- Elias - 7.5
- Brodeur - 5.2
- Rafalski - 4.2
- Madden - 3.893
- Malakhov - 3.6
- Mogiliny - 3.5
- White - 3
- Langenbrunner - 2.8
- McGillis - 2.2
- Brylin - 1.52
- Matvichuk - 1.368
- Lukowich - 1
- Wiemer - .950
- 5 guys ranging from .836 - .450
-----------------------------------------
Total - $43.93 million
Notable RFA's left to sign: Scott Gomez (30 goals, 80 points last season) and Brian Gionta (48 goals, 90 points last season).
Ouch. I can't fathom how galling it must be for ol' Lou to have those $7 million anchors, Malakhov and Mogilny, dragging down the payroll. Talk about learning a lesson the hard way.
Anyways, I digress. Assuming tsn's numbers are completely correct (which usually they aren't, but let's pretend) what we have here is a team that:
1.) Has (once they re-sign him) a young, skilled center with "Gretzky-like vision" who has to play with "skilled linemates to be effective". And...
2.) A desperate need to dump salary.
Hmmm. Seems like a fit to me. Granted, Gomez has been on Flames fan's wishlists for a long time - his swift skating and passing abilities make him a natural fit to center Iginla. Of course, New Jersey has had little reason to trade him.
Until now.
Already bumping against the cap ceiling, the Devils have approximately $6-7 million/year in potential contracts for RFA's Gomez and Gionta . If not more. Considering the kind of stats both players put up in 05/06, $6 million combined for each is a conservative estimate.
So what is a Lou to do?
He can't get rid of the Mogilny or Malakhov abortions. He's stuck with them. Nor can he trade Brodeur - the Devils don't have another starter waiting in the wings. The lumbering dinosaur of a contract he gave to Elias dissaudes any deals there. And he'd have to get rid of a lot of Wiemers, Brylins and Lukowichs to make any sort of significant dent in the payroll.
Here's my suggestion (ie fantasy):
Trade Rafalski to Edmonton for a much cheaper blueliner (MA Bergeron?) and some prospects/picks. Edmonton has a lot of cap space, a desperate need for a top minute d-man and bunch of "potentials" garnered from the Pronger trade. The move gets him a 14 goal scorer on the blueline, some future assets and frees up more than $3 million in cap space (Rafalski's 4.2 - Bergeron's .969).
Next, sign Gomez to something like a $4 million/year contract and trade him to...wait for it...CALGARY for Mat. Lombardi+prospect/picks. This way, Lou gets back a CHEAP, young, offensive center who can play at the NHL level right away, more future assets and conserves most of the space he created by dumping Rafalski...which, of course, would leave him with enough room to re-sign Gionta at the $3 million/year he'll be asking for. Or near enough, at least. Another minor move - say dealing someone like a Sergei Brylin to Washington for a 3rd rounder - would probably need to happen to make this scenario at all workable. But, hey, it's possible right? Right??
So does this actually work from a Calgary Flames perspective? Let's see...
The acquisition of Gomez would give Calgary a fairly formidable group of top 6 forwards:
Tanguay - Gomez - Iginla
Huselius - Langkow - Kobasew
Drool-inducing, no? Especially for offense-starved Flames fans.
In addition, this kind of move would help de-clutter all the "young potential 2nd/3rd line centers" in the Flame's cupboard. With Langkow, Lundmark and Lombardi already in the NHL and prospects Boyd, Seitsonen, Ryder and the recently signed Russian Olympian Andrei Tarathukin in the system (plus the 4+ centers Calgary drafted this summer), the team is quickly heading towards a big ol' cluster-eff-log-jam down the middle.
As far as cap issues go, a $4 million/year Gomez would probably push the Flames to the limit. The fantasy gets (even more) unlikely at this point without dumping some salary - say a Rhett Warrener or Roman Hamrlik for a draft pick or two.
Probable? No. Sutter loves his defensive depth. I think he literally lies awake in the middle of the night, sweating and anxious, at the thought of having the likes of Mark Giordano patrolling the blueline on a regular basis.
To make the fantasy even more convoluted, I may as well ask if it would be worth giving up a Hamrlik (and Lombardi) for a Gomez. Would it? Would the potential for an injection of 70-80 points and a more diversified offensive attack off-set the effects of having a greater amount of quality shots and chances (and thus, more goals) against?
I can honestly say "yes", with the confidence of man that cheers for a team that has the best goaltender in hockey. Probably above and beyond anyone else in the league, the Flames could stand to take a few more risks, in terms of defensive personnel, without suffering dire consequences. The resualtant equation looks like:
(Kipper in net+Gomez out front+young defenseman on the back-end) - (Lombardi+future assets+Hamrlik) = net gain in goal differential.
By my math at least. Not that I was ever that great at math.
Anyways, that's my fantasy. Knowing that there are tons of GM's looking at the NJ situation and spinning out similar scenario's in their heads pretty much assures that something like this won't actually happen (for Calgary). And, like my earlier Elias musings, I don't really think this has much grounding in reality.
Sure is fun to consider though.
So everyone knows the New Jersey Devils are in cap trouble. And I mean BIG TIME cap trouble. According to tsn, their current signed roster looks like:
- Elias - 7.5
- Brodeur - 5.2
- Rafalski - 4.2
- Madden - 3.893
- Malakhov - 3.6
- Mogiliny - 3.5
- White - 3
- Langenbrunner - 2.8
- McGillis - 2.2
- Brylin - 1.52
- Matvichuk - 1.368
- Lukowich - 1
- Wiemer - .950
- 5 guys ranging from .836 - .450
-----------------------------------------
Total - $43.93 million
Notable RFA's left to sign: Scott Gomez (30 goals, 80 points last season) and Brian Gionta (48 goals, 90 points last season).
Ouch. I can't fathom how galling it must be for ol' Lou to have those $7 million anchors, Malakhov and Mogilny, dragging down the payroll. Talk about learning a lesson the hard way.
Anyways, I digress. Assuming tsn's numbers are completely correct (which usually they aren't, but let's pretend) what we have here is a team that:
1.) Has (once they re-sign him) a young, skilled center with "Gretzky-like vision" who has to play with "skilled linemates to be effective". And...
2.) A desperate need to dump salary.
Hmmm. Seems like a fit to me. Granted, Gomez has been on Flames fan's wishlists for a long time - his swift skating and passing abilities make him a natural fit to center Iginla. Of course, New Jersey has had little reason to trade him.
Until now.
Already bumping against the cap ceiling, the Devils have approximately $6-7 million/year in potential contracts for RFA's Gomez and Gionta . If not more. Considering the kind of stats both players put up in 05/06, $6 million combined for each is a conservative estimate.
So what is a Lou to do?
He can't get rid of the Mogilny or Malakhov abortions. He's stuck with them. Nor can he trade Brodeur - the Devils don't have another starter waiting in the wings. The lumbering dinosaur of a contract he gave to Elias dissaudes any deals there. And he'd have to get rid of a lot of Wiemers, Brylins and Lukowichs to make any sort of significant dent in the payroll.
Here's my suggestion (ie fantasy):
Trade Rafalski to Edmonton for a much cheaper blueliner (MA Bergeron?) and some prospects/picks. Edmonton has a lot of cap space, a desperate need for a top minute d-man and bunch of "potentials" garnered from the Pronger trade. The move gets him a 14 goal scorer on the blueline, some future assets and frees up more than $3 million in cap space (Rafalski's 4.2 - Bergeron's .969).
Next, sign Gomez to something like a $4 million/year contract and trade him to...wait for it...CALGARY for Mat. Lombardi+prospect/picks. This way, Lou gets back a CHEAP, young, offensive center who can play at the NHL level right away, more future assets and conserves most of the space he created by dumping Rafalski...which, of course, would leave him with enough room to re-sign Gionta at the $3 million/year he'll be asking for. Or near enough, at least. Another minor move - say dealing someone like a Sergei Brylin to Washington for a 3rd rounder - would probably need to happen to make this scenario at all workable. But, hey, it's possible right? Right??
So does this actually work from a Calgary Flames perspective? Let's see...
The acquisition of Gomez would give Calgary a fairly formidable group of top 6 forwards:
Tanguay - Gomez - Iginla
Huselius - Langkow - Kobasew
Drool-inducing, no? Especially for offense-starved Flames fans.
In addition, this kind of move would help de-clutter all the "young potential 2nd/3rd line centers" in the Flame's cupboard. With Langkow, Lundmark and Lombardi already in the NHL and prospects Boyd, Seitsonen, Ryder and the recently signed Russian Olympian Andrei Tarathukin in the system (plus the 4+ centers Calgary drafted this summer), the team is quickly heading towards a big ol' cluster-eff-log-jam down the middle.
As far as cap issues go, a $4 million/year Gomez would probably push the Flames to the limit. The fantasy gets (even more) unlikely at this point without dumping some salary - say a Rhett Warrener or Roman Hamrlik for a draft pick or two.
Probable? No. Sutter loves his defensive depth. I think he literally lies awake in the middle of the night, sweating and anxious, at the thought of having the likes of Mark Giordano patrolling the blueline on a regular basis.
To make the fantasy even more convoluted, I may as well ask if it would be worth giving up a Hamrlik (and Lombardi) for a Gomez. Would it? Would the potential for an injection of 70-80 points and a more diversified offensive attack off-set the effects of having a greater amount of quality shots and chances (and thus, more goals) against?
I can honestly say "yes", with the confidence of man that cheers for a team that has the best goaltender in hockey. Probably above and beyond anyone else in the league, the Flames could stand to take a few more risks, in terms of defensive personnel, without suffering dire consequences. The resualtant equation looks like:
(Kipper in net+Gomez out front+young defenseman on the back-end) - (Lombardi+future assets+Hamrlik) = net gain in goal differential.
By my math at least. Not that I was ever that great at math.
Anyways, that's my fantasy. Knowing that there are tons of GM's looking at the NJ situation and spinning out similar scenario's in their heads pretty much assures that something like this won't actually happen (for Calgary). And, like my earlier Elias musings, I don't really think this has much grounding in reality.
Sure is fun to consider though.
Monday, July 10, 2006
The Fall of the House of Legace and Other Oddities
It's almost become worthy of a carnival freakshow - purusing NHL headlines on TSN everyday makes one wonder what odd, grotesque or disturbing bit of news will pop up next. For instance:
- The latest menage-et-trade between Ottawa, Chicago and San Jose yielded more than one headscratcher. The deal went like this - Chicago traded Mark Bell to San Jose for Tom Priessing and Josh Hennessy (a prospect), who then turned around and flipped those players in a package (plus another prospect and a pick) to Ottawa for a return of Martin Havlat and Brian Smolinski.
First oddity - why is San Jose trading defensemen? As of right now they have 3 under contract: youngster Matt Carle, Scott Hannan and Kyle McLaren. At least with Priessing they had a relatively comfortable top 4 on the back-end. Now? Three guys left and a waning UFA list. While the Sharks still have a tradable asset in Nabokov to move for some help on the blueline, the market doesn't seem to be working in their favor currently - quality defensemen are the hottest thing going (see contracts for: Chara, Jovo, Redden, Kubina, Corvo, Johnsson, etc.) while there's more "supply" than "demand" for goaltenders (Just ask Manny Legace). So while Mark Bell might help the Shark's secondary attack, I'm not sure it was worth trimming an already thin defense corps. to land him.
Second oddity - There are reports that Martin Havlat has signed a 3 year, $18 million deal with the Hawks. Let's be clear here - Havlat has tremendous offensive upside and is an exciting young sniper...but, come on, 6 big bills per season!! For Havlat!? He's never played more than 72 games in a year and has never scored more than 31 goals! How he manages to garner franchise player type money is beyond me.
And I guess we can surmise that winning and/or playing in a quality organization were NOT the things Havlat was going to pursue in what would have been his UFA summer next year. His reluctance to make a longer-term commitment coupled with his absurd Blackhawkian-pay-day make this deal intelligible from a Senator standpoint. With players like Spezza, Alfreddson, Heatley and Redden already on the roster, shedding Havlat's injury-prone-money-grubbing-opponent-kicking ass makes a lot of sense. In addition, Ottawa got the Hawks to take on Smolinski's useless presence (and salary figure) in the deal as well. Not to mention getting a young up-and-comer like Priessing to boot.
Score. At least SOMEONE'S doing something right.
- The glut of goaltenders on the market notwithstanding, it's probably tough for some people to comprehend how Manny Legace hasn't been aggressively pursued yet. His stats from last season are stellar: 2.19 GAA (good for 3rd in the league), 0.915 SP (8th) had 7 shut-outs and a 37-8-3-7 record. Granted, one has to consider that Legace played for the best regular season team in the league, in the weakest division. However, in the last 4 seasons with the Red Wings, Legace's SP has never been lower than 0.911 and his GAA has never plunged below 2.42. In the last 2 seasons, Legace has played 92 games (5, 230 minues) and has lost only 18 of them (in regulation). Surely, Manny deserves a moderate amount of credit for numbers this impressive - team and division aside. At 33 years old he must be worth, at the very LEAST, a one year go 'round. Especially when ancient fossils like Hasek, Belfour and Roloson are still haunting the league's creases.
So what's wrong with Manny? It can't be simply the strong team/weak division issue. Well, if this article is to be believed, it was Legace's play-off performance that dissuaded the Red Wings from signing him (and, therefore, anyone else as well). While Legace was less than Stellar this past April, the team in front of him was decidedly less than good as well...which makes me think it's MORE than just a shakey 7 games that is keeping GM's away from the Legace Well - keep in mind that JFJ decided to trade for Andrew Raycroft: a deal that won him probably the worst tender in the NHL last season AND cost him a top-notch propsect in Rask.
Aside from JFJ's incompetence, there's gotta more to it. On the face of it, the decision to do that deal for Raycroft when Legace could have been had for nothing looks absurd to even the most mentally challenged hockey fan...
I think one of the best clues as to why ML has become a social pariah can be found in this post from Abel to Yzerman, aptly dubbed "Out of the Mouth of Legace". Anyone who followed the Red Wings/Oilers (or read the above blog during that time) can probably attest to the very public and almost juvenile mental collapse of Legace during the series. "I feel like going out and hanging myself" was Manny's response to being upset in game 7. Hmmm...not the kind of thing that inspires confidence in a teammate. Kinda sounds like the twitchy, anxious, bound-to-die character that inhabits most action/horror flicks - you know, like Bill Paxton's sissy-army-guy from Aliens: "Game over man! GAME OVER!!"
A later post from Abel to Yzerman says as much: it wasn't Legace's play that soured his teammates and coaches on him - it was his attitude. And sadly for Manny THAT may be a lot harder thing for prospective employers to get over than, say, a season of bad stats...
- On a somewhat related note, there's indications that Ken Holland is getting ready to sign Ed Belfour. Let's see...very old, very injury prone and coming off a very bad year. Uh...with options like JS Giguere and Nabokov to be had via trade one has to wonder what Holland is thinking. Didn't he take note of the Hasek/Ottawa fiasco? It's a move so baffling and idiotic, from what seems to be a sensible GM, it almost smacks of some shady, "blackmaily"-type dealings. Does Belfour have some Holland+five iron+goat pictures in his possession? Or maybe Eddie simply bribed Ken with an offer he couldn't refuse? Whatever the reason, Im fairly certain that the Eagle (should he definitively land in Detroit) will prove to be the Red Wings undoing next season.
- The latest menage-et-trade between Ottawa, Chicago and San Jose yielded more than one headscratcher. The deal went like this - Chicago traded Mark Bell to San Jose for Tom Priessing and Josh Hennessy (a prospect), who then turned around and flipped those players in a package (plus another prospect and a pick) to Ottawa for a return of Martin Havlat and Brian Smolinski.
First oddity - why is San Jose trading defensemen? As of right now they have 3 under contract: youngster Matt Carle, Scott Hannan and Kyle McLaren. At least with Priessing they had a relatively comfortable top 4 on the back-end. Now? Three guys left and a waning UFA list. While the Sharks still have a tradable asset in Nabokov to move for some help on the blueline, the market doesn't seem to be working in their favor currently - quality defensemen are the hottest thing going (see contracts for: Chara, Jovo, Redden, Kubina, Corvo, Johnsson, etc.) while there's more "supply" than "demand" for goaltenders (Just ask Manny Legace). So while Mark Bell might help the Shark's secondary attack, I'm not sure it was worth trimming an already thin defense corps. to land him.
Second oddity - There are reports that Martin Havlat has signed a 3 year, $18 million deal with the Hawks. Let's be clear here - Havlat has tremendous offensive upside and is an exciting young sniper...but, come on, 6 big bills per season!! For Havlat!? He's never played more than 72 games in a year and has never scored more than 31 goals! How he manages to garner franchise player type money is beyond me.
And I guess we can surmise that winning and/or playing in a quality organization were NOT the things Havlat was going to pursue in what would have been his UFA summer next year. His reluctance to make a longer-term commitment coupled with his absurd Blackhawkian-pay-day make this deal intelligible from a Senator standpoint. With players like Spezza, Alfreddson, Heatley and Redden already on the roster, shedding Havlat's injury-prone-money-grubbing-opponent-kicking ass makes a lot of sense. In addition, Ottawa got the Hawks to take on Smolinski's useless presence (and salary figure) in the deal as well. Not to mention getting a young up-and-comer like Priessing to boot.
Score. At least SOMEONE'S doing something right.
- The glut of goaltenders on the market notwithstanding, it's probably tough for some people to comprehend how Manny Legace hasn't been aggressively pursued yet. His stats from last season are stellar: 2.19 GAA (good for 3rd in the league), 0.915 SP (8th) had 7 shut-outs and a 37-8-3-7 record. Granted, one has to consider that Legace played for the best regular season team in the league, in the weakest division. However, in the last 4 seasons with the Red Wings, Legace's SP has never been lower than 0.911 and his GAA has never plunged below 2.42. In the last 2 seasons, Legace has played 92 games (5, 230 minues) and has lost only 18 of them (in regulation). Surely, Manny deserves a moderate amount of credit for numbers this impressive - team and division aside. At 33 years old he must be worth, at the very LEAST, a one year go 'round. Especially when ancient fossils like Hasek, Belfour and Roloson are still haunting the league's creases.
So what's wrong with Manny? It can't be simply the strong team/weak division issue. Well, if this article is to be believed, it was Legace's play-off performance that dissuaded the Red Wings from signing him (and, therefore, anyone else as well). While Legace was less than Stellar this past April, the team in front of him was decidedly less than good as well...which makes me think it's MORE than just a shakey 7 games that is keeping GM's away from the Legace Well - keep in mind that JFJ decided to trade for Andrew Raycroft: a deal that won him probably the worst tender in the NHL last season AND cost him a top-notch propsect in Rask.
Aside from JFJ's incompetence, there's gotta more to it. On the face of it, the decision to do that deal for Raycroft when Legace could have been had for nothing looks absurd to even the most mentally challenged hockey fan...
I think one of the best clues as to why ML has become a social pariah can be found in this post from Abel to Yzerman, aptly dubbed "Out of the Mouth of Legace". Anyone who followed the Red Wings/Oilers (or read the above blog during that time) can probably attest to the very public and almost juvenile mental collapse of Legace during the series. "I feel like going out and hanging myself" was Manny's response to being upset in game 7. Hmmm...not the kind of thing that inspires confidence in a teammate. Kinda sounds like the twitchy, anxious, bound-to-die character that inhabits most action/horror flicks - you know, like Bill Paxton's sissy-army-guy from Aliens: "Game over man! GAME OVER!!"
A later post from Abel to Yzerman says as much: it wasn't Legace's play that soured his teammates and coaches on him - it was his attitude. And sadly for Manny THAT may be a lot harder thing for prospective employers to get over than, say, a season of bad stats...
- On a somewhat related note, there's indications that Ken Holland is getting ready to sign Ed Belfour. Let's see...very old, very injury prone and coming off a very bad year. Uh...with options like JS Giguere and Nabokov to be had via trade one has to wonder what Holland is thinking. Didn't he take note of the Hasek/Ottawa fiasco? It's a move so baffling and idiotic, from what seems to be a sensible GM, it almost smacks of some shady, "blackmaily"-type dealings. Does Belfour have some Holland+five iron+goat pictures in his possession? Or maybe Eddie simply bribed Ken with an offer he couldn't refuse? Whatever the reason, Im fairly certain that the Eagle (should he definitively land in Detroit) will prove to be the Red Wings undoing next season.
Tuesday, July 04, 2006
F'ed in the A
I guess I should stop ignoring the White Elephant in the room and post something about the Pronger trade...
Let's see. Pronger for Lupul and a prospect (Smid) and some high picks (first rounder, a conditional first rounder and a second rounder).
Yup, it's an "F" alright: an F right in the A.
Or at least it seems to be - from an Oiler's perspective, anyways. Especially considering the short-term ramifications. Take a look at the Greaser's current blueline brigade, for instance:
- Steve Staios
- Jason Smith
- MA Bergeron
- Matt Greene
- (Syvret, Smid)?
One can almost hear Spacek's agent cackling gleefully. Not only did this weekend's activity set the bar obscenely high for slightly above average defensemen (like Spacek), but he now has mountains of leverage in the form of KLowe desperation which he will no doubt turn into a long-term, lucrative deal for his client. Just another gentleman caller looking to woo the Oil with his "rapist wit" (apologies to Dumb and Dumber).
Not that the Oil won't be well used and lubed by the time that comes around. First, Pronger screws them by demanding the trade. Then, a little drunk from their SCF run, they bow to the pressures of Roli and Pisani and overpay to keep them around. Then that wily ol' Burke sneaks up on them in the showers and delivers the above deal to boot.
Ouch.
Course, it's not really ALL bad. Edmonton has a ton of cap room and a pretty deep core of young, scoring forwards...especially with the addition of Lupul. IF Lowe can somehow patch the gaping 30 minute hole left by Pronger through trades or free agency, they might escape this whole debacle sans Pronger and pride but otherwise intact.
So what's left in the UFA pool anyways? Not much.
Gone are premium names like Redden, Chara, Jovo and Blake. Heck, even most of the 2nd-tier d-men have been claimed - McKee, Witt, Ward, Zyuzin, Kuba, Kubina, Gill, Pothier, Corvo, Mitchell, Johnsson - all snatched up between Saturday and Monday.
Which means there's certainly no ONE guy out there that can take Pronger's place in Edmonton. Here are some players who are (unofficially) still available:
Radoslav Suchy, Jason Woolley, Shane Hnidy, Daniel Tjarnqvist, Jiri Slegr, Ian Moran, Rory Fitzpatrick, Cale Hulse, Bryan Marchment, Jamie Pushor, John Erskine, Dick Tarnstrom, Joel Kwiatkowski, Jamie Allison, Alex Karpovtsev, Todd Simpson, Tommy Albelin, Joel Bouchard, Jason Strudwick, Brad Norton, Lyle Odelein, Patrick Traverse, Cory Cross, Igor Ulanov, Jamie Rivers, Chris McAllister, Kevin Dallman, Mathieu Biron, Jason Doig, Brad Brown
Assuming they'll re-sign Spacek, Edmonton will probably want at least one more d-man that can play 20 minutes a night. Radoslav Suchy maybe? Dallman? Erskine? Jason Woolley?? Of course, what if they DON'T re-sign Spacek? Which 2 of the above would you take to play top 4 minutes??? *shudder*
It's an unpleasant prospect to be certain. 'Course, there's always the trade route...though, considering the leagues frothing-at-the-mouth demand for quality defensemen currently, one can figure that a top 4 guy will come at a pretty significant cost. Is Hemsky, Stoll or Horcoff worth a top 4 guy? Would one of each even be enough in the current market?
Tough questions, tough call. Grabia has an exhaustive post at the Battle of Alberta for those of you that are morbidly curious about the future facing ol' Shelbyville...
As for the Anaheim perspective - well...
you give up a young up-coming scorer...something you have in spades anyhow. You acquire one of the top 5 d-men in the league, even though you ALREADY HAVE one of those in Niedermayer. With those two anchors on the back-end it almost doesn't matter who else they decide to dress on the blueline. Oh...and they have cap room to spare. Scary.
If Anaheim is able to garner the kind of seasons they got out of Selanne, Getzlaf, MacDonald and co. again next year, they could be a force to be reckoned with. One thing's for certain, though - the Battle of California is sure going to be interesting to watch.
Let's see. Pronger for Lupul and a prospect (Smid) and some high picks (first rounder, a conditional first rounder and a second rounder).
Yup, it's an "F" alright: an F right in the A.
Or at least it seems to be - from an Oiler's perspective, anyways. Especially considering the short-term ramifications. Take a look at the Greaser's current blueline brigade, for instance:
- Steve Staios
- Jason Smith
- MA Bergeron
- Matt Greene
- (Syvret, Smid)?
One can almost hear Spacek's agent cackling gleefully. Not only did this weekend's activity set the bar obscenely high for slightly above average defensemen (like Spacek), but he now has mountains of leverage in the form of KLowe desperation which he will no doubt turn into a long-term, lucrative deal for his client. Just another gentleman caller looking to woo the Oil with his "rapist wit" (apologies to Dumb and Dumber).
Not that the Oil won't be well used and lubed by the time that comes around. First, Pronger screws them by demanding the trade. Then, a little drunk from their SCF run, they bow to the pressures of Roli and Pisani and overpay to keep them around. Then that wily ol' Burke sneaks up on them in the showers and delivers the above deal to boot.
Ouch.
Course, it's not really ALL bad. Edmonton has a ton of cap room and a pretty deep core of young, scoring forwards...especially with the addition of Lupul. IF Lowe can somehow patch the gaping 30 minute hole left by Pronger through trades or free agency, they might escape this whole debacle sans Pronger and pride but otherwise intact.
So what's left in the UFA pool anyways? Not much.
Gone are premium names like Redden, Chara, Jovo and Blake. Heck, even most of the 2nd-tier d-men have been claimed - McKee, Witt, Ward, Zyuzin, Kuba, Kubina, Gill, Pothier, Corvo, Mitchell, Johnsson - all snatched up between Saturday and Monday.
Which means there's certainly no ONE guy out there that can take Pronger's place in Edmonton. Here are some players who are (unofficially) still available:
Radoslav Suchy, Jason Woolley, Shane Hnidy, Daniel Tjarnqvist, Jiri Slegr, Ian Moran, Rory Fitzpatrick, Cale Hulse, Bryan Marchment, Jamie Pushor, John Erskine, Dick Tarnstrom, Joel Kwiatkowski, Jamie Allison, Alex Karpovtsev, Todd Simpson, Tommy Albelin, Joel Bouchard, Jason Strudwick, Brad Norton, Lyle Odelein, Patrick Traverse, Cory Cross, Igor Ulanov, Jamie Rivers, Chris McAllister, Kevin Dallman, Mathieu Biron, Jason Doig, Brad Brown
Assuming they'll re-sign Spacek, Edmonton will probably want at least one more d-man that can play 20 minutes a night. Radoslav Suchy maybe? Dallman? Erskine? Jason Woolley?? Of course, what if they DON'T re-sign Spacek? Which 2 of the above would you take to play top 4 minutes??? *shudder*
It's an unpleasant prospect to be certain. 'Course, there's always the trade route...though, considering the leagues frothing-at-the-mouth demand for quality defensemen currently, one can figure that a top 4 guy will come at a pretty significant cost. Is Hemsky, Stoll or Horcoff worth a top 4 guy? Would one of each even be enough in the current market?
Tough questions, tough call. Grabia has an exhaustive post at the Battle of Alberta for those of you that are morbidly curious about the future facing ol' Shelbyville...
As for the Anaheim perspective - well...
you give up a young up-coming scorer...something you have in spades anyhow. You acquire one of the top 5 d-men in the league, even though you ALREADY HAVE one of those in Niedermayer. With those two anchors on the back-end it almost doesn't matter who else they decide to dress on the blueline. Oh...and they have cap room to spare. Scary.
If Anaheim is able to garner the kind of seasons they got out of Selanne, Getzlaf, MacDonald and co. again next year, they could be a force to be reckoned with. One thing's for certain, though - the Battle of California is sure going to be interesting to watch.
The Free Agent Feeding Frenzy
The madness began Saturday. And I don't think it's going to stop any time soon.
Looking at the large and lengthy deals being thrown at the various UFA's this weekend, "madness" is certainly an appropriate term. It almost seems like "Mad" Mike Milbury imposed his habit of conjuring albatross-type-contracts upon a sizable portion of the NHL's general managers - which is all the more baffling in light of the salary-capped CBA.
So, without further foreplay...let's examine the wreckage.
Saturday:
- Boston inks Chara and Savard to a massive five year deals, each worth 7.5 and 4 million per season respectively. This looks to me like a green GM earnestly trying to make a big splash in his new position. Both contracts are too long and too fat - Savard can't play defense, has never seen the post season and has inflated offensive stats thanks to playing alongside guys like Hossa and Kovalchuk on the PP. While Chara is indeed a premium blueliner, his huge, lanky frame probably comes with more risk from wear and tear than other players - that, and he always seems to struggle in the post-season. If either of these guys stumble in their first couple of seasons with Boston, the Bruins are gonna be stuck with $11.5 million worth of onerus headaches per season.
- The Flames replace Jordan Leopold with Andrei Zyuzin. Zyuzin can play top 4 minutes and comes at the relatively low price of 1.4/season. The Sutter connection should have disuaded from picking the wrong Wild d-man in this post.
- Carolina signs John Grahame. Meh.
- Chicago picks up Patrick Lalime. Great, now they have two horrible former #1 goalies.
- Detroit re-signs Chris Osgood. YAWN. The Red Wings better start looking for a new starter pretty soon. At least they didn't sign Lalime.
- Edmonton picks up Pisani and Roloson to 4 and 3 year deals respectively. As mentioned previously here, that's just too long (and too much) for both players. Roloson, a career back-up until last season, is now being paid more than Kiprusoff - and he's 36. Pisani had a career season and superb play-offs, but let's face it; he's a third line forward who's a Shean Donovan away from averaging 9 goals and 25 points a season for the next 4 years.
- The Kings coax Rob Blake back into the fold with a well-paying, but short, 2 year contract. That sounds about right.
- The Wild revolution continues with Minnesota adding Mark Parrish, Keith Carney and Kim Johnsson. Yikes. It looks like the Wild have finally grown weary of finishing last in the NW division.
- The Devils re-sign Langenbrunner to a 5 year, 2.8/season deal. Decent amount of money for a play-0ff performer, which probably mitigates the excessive length of the contract.
- The Rangers lock up Matt Cullen and the oft-forgotten Karel Rachunek. Cullen's 4 year, $11.2 million contract isn't a terrible burden, provided his career season last year wasn't a total aberration. He'll bring some grit and balance to New York's line-up. Not sure about Rachunek's deal, but Im guessing it'll be a brief 1 or 2 year "try out" contract. Im sure the Rags are hoping for another Roszival-type revelation in Rachunek.
- Ottawa shores up their goaltending and defense by adding former Hurricane Martin Gerber and offensively minded d-man Joe Corvo. Expect Gerber and Emery to split starting duties in the Capital next season. Corvo will probably get first unit PP time with Redden. Corvo's 4 year, 10.5/season contract is a risk, but could become a steal should he flourish in the fertile soil that is the Ottawa Senators.
- Phoenix grabs Jovo-cop for a staggering $6.5/season for 5 years. Too much and too long for an incomplete rearguard. Jovo is a big, mean, give-away machine. They should have signed someone nice and defensive, like Witt or McKee. Maybe the desert dogs will have the last laugh if Jovo leads the league in points by a defenseman next year. Course, I may still have the last laugh if he's -15.
- Tampa Bay signs...Andy Delmore? Why do teams keep picking this guy up? They also snagged my coveted Filip Kuba for 3 years, 3 million per. Nice length, too much money. Why is T-bay in cap trouble again?
- And now for some laughers - Toronto signs Pavel Kubina to a 4 year, $20 million deal and Hal Gill to a 3 year, $6.3 million contract. Yup, Pavel Kubina, he who has never broken the 40 point total and has never been better than +9 is being paid 5 MILLION DOLLARS. PER SEASON. Then there's Hal "the Glacier" Gill. Over 2 million a year for a guy who can neither skate nor score. I hope they pair him with Belak.
So now the Leafs have nearly $20 million in cap space tied up in 4 defensemen - and none of them are what I would consider clear cut "#1" guys. Smart. S-M-R-T.
- Vancouver bolsters their depleted blueline with Willie Mitchell. While the Canucks were badly in need of some depth on the back-end, Im not sure that paying a defensive defenseman $14 million over 4 years is a wise choice. At least he's a combined +44 over his last 3 seasons I guess.
- Washington plucks Pothier from the FA pool for $10 million over 4 years. This helps the Capitals get closer to the salary-basement while getting better on the back-end.
Worst Signings of the day:
Kubina, Roloson, Chara. In that order.
Sunday:
- Boston grabs our own erstwhile checker, Shean Donovan. His speed, grit and gap-toothed grin will be missed. His maddening inconsistency and offensive-zone hooking penalties will not.
- Florida grabs Ruslan salei for 4 years/12.1 million. $3mill./year? For SALEI? Most points in a season =20. Best plus/minus = +17. Well...I guess if Kubina's getting 5 mill...
- Nashville inks Jason Arnott to a 5 year/$22.5 million contract. Looks like Nashville's wish to get bigger down the middle made them overpay a tad. Arnott is a career 20-goal scorer who had a big (read: contract) season last year. If he doesn't come close to replicating his 30 goal/70 point numbers in Predators colors, they may be left lamenting the length of this contract.
- The Devils exascerbate their cap concerns by re-signing Patrik Elias to a monstrous 7 year, $42 million deal. He'll be 37 at end of this contract! Now, Elias is an elite first line left-winger...but there are simply too many variables and thus too much risk involved with a contract of this length - if Elias' play suddenly drops off 3 or 4 years from now, which is a possibility (see: Bill Guerin), the Devils will be stuck with this albatross for another 3 or 4 seasons. I can understand the compulsion to re-sign your marquee forward...but come on.
- The Islander's snag the ultimate journeyman Mike Sillinger to a relatively sane 3 year/$6.6 million deal. While I doubt he will have a repeat of his 30 goal season, he will no doubt bring some experience, leadership and stability to the Islanders forward corps. Good signing (can't remember the last time I said that about an Islander's deal).
- Alyn McCauley goes to the Kings. Three years, 6 million, not too bad.
- St. Louis removes Jay McKee from the market with a 4 year/$16 million contract. Jay McKee, who's career high is 5 goals. Good defensive defenseman, great shot-blocker...worth $4 million a year? No. I guess the Columbus Blue Jacket/Adam Foote experience hasn't really taught anyone anything.
Worst Signings of the Day:
Elias, McKee, Arnott.
Monday:
- Atlanta grabs Steve Rucchin. 3 years for about $2.8million a year, the Thrashers add a veteran 2-way presence for a pretty decent price.
- Rangers sign Aaron Ward to a 2 year/$5.5 million contract. Ward is only 33, but already has a ton of post-season experience and should stabilize the Rangers bottom-two pairing. Seems a little pricey at 2.75/year, but considering some of the other d-man deals going down...
- The Blues pick-up Guerin, Weight and Dan Hinote. Heck, they might actually have a NHL caliber roster next year. Weight will return for 3.5 mill./season for two years, while Guerin nabbed a one year contract for some mystery amount. The details surrounding the hinote deal are still fuzzy.
While adding the likes of aging stars Guerin and Weight may seem like a gamble, the Blues had very little to lose and a lot to gain. At the very least, neither of the ex-Oilers are inked for a long period of time, so the risk is minimal.
- Mike Griere and Curtis Brown both sign with the San Jose Sharks. The Griere contract is $1.75 million over 3 years. Both players were probably brought in to fill the checking-line holes left by the departures of Scott Thornton and Alyn McCauley.
- The Islanders sign Witt to a 3 year $(?) contract. Hard to evaluate the quality of this signing right now without the dollar amount. Im sure it's something absurd, given what similar guys like Willie Mitchell and Jay McKee were able to obtain. At least it's "only" a 3 year deal.
Worst Signings of the Day...none.
More to come...
Looking at the large and lengthy deals being thrown at the various UFA's this weekend, "madness" is certainly an appropriate term. It almost seems like "Mad" Mike Milbury imposed his habit of conjuring albatross-type-contracts upon a sizable portion of the NHL's general managers - which is all the more baffling in light of the salary-capped CBA.
So, without further foreplay...let's examine the wreckage.
Saturday:
- Boston inks Chara and Savard to a massive five year deals, each worth 7.5 and 4 million per season respectively. This looks to me like a green GM earnestly trying to make a big splash in his new position. Both contracts are too long and too fat - Savard can't play defense, has never seen the post season and has inflated offensive stats thanks to playing alongside guys like Hossa and Kovalchuk on the PP. While Chara is indeed a premium blueliner, his huge, lanky frame probably comes with more risk from wear and tear than other players - that, and he always seems to struggle in the post-season. If either of these guys stumble in their first couple of seasons with Boston, the Bruins are gonna be stuck with $11.5 million worth of onerus headaches per season.
- The Flames replace Jordan Leopold with Andrei Zyuzin. Zyuzin can play top 4 minutes and comes at the relatively low price of 1.4/season. The Sutter connection should have disuaded from picking the wrong Wild d-man in this post.
- Carolina signs John Grahame. Meh.
- Chicago picks up Patrick Lalime. Great, now they have two horrible former #1 goalies.
- Detroit re-signs Chris Osgood. YAWN. The Red Wings better start looking for a new starter pretty soon. At least they didn't sign Lalime.
- Edmonton picks up Pisani and Roloson to 4 and 3 year deals respectively. As mentioned previously here, that's just too long (and too much) for both players. Roloson, a career back-up until last season, is now being paid more than Kiprusoff - and he's 36. Pisani had a career season and superb play-offs, but let's face it; he's a third line forward who's a Shean Donovan away from averaging 9 goals and 25 points a season for the next 4 years.
- The Kings coax Rob Blake back into the fold with a well-paying, but short, 2 year contract. That sounds about right.
- The Wild revolution continues with Minnesota adding Mark Parrish, Keith Carney and Kim Johnsson. Yikes. It looks like the Wild have finally grown weary of finishing last in the NW division.
- The Devils re-sign Langenbrunner to a 5 year, 2.8/season deal. Decent amount of money for a play-0ff performer, which probably mitigates the excessive length of the contract.
- The Rangers lock up Matt Cullen and the oft-forgotten Karel Rachunek. Cullen's 4 year, $11.2 million contract isn't a terrible burden, provided his career season last year wasn't a total aberration. He'll bring some grit and balance to New York's line-up. Not sure about Rachunek's deal, but Im guessing it'll be a brief 1 or 2 year "try out" contract. Im sure the Rags are hoping for another Roszival-type revelation in Rachunek.
- Ottawa shores up their goaltending and defense by adding former Hurricane Martin Gerber and offensively minded d-man Joe Corvo. Expect Gerber and Emery to split starting duties in the Capital next season. Corvo will probably get first unit PP time with Redden. Corvo's 4 year, 10.5/season contract is a risk, but could become a steal should he flourish in the fertile soil that is the Ottawa Senators.
- Phoenix grabs Jovo-cop for a staggering $6.5/season for 5 years. Too much and too long for an incomplete rearguard. Jovo is a big, mean, give-away machine. They should have signed someone nice and defensive, like Witt or McKee. Maybe the desert dogs will have the last laugh if Jovo leads the league in points by a defenseman next year. Course, I may still have the last laugh if he's -15.
- Tampa Bay signs...Andy Delmore? Why do teams keep picking this guy up? They also snagged my coveted Filip Kuba for 3 years, 3 million per. Nice length, too much money. Why is T-bay in cap trouble again?
- And now for some laughers - Toronto signs Pavel Kubina to a 4 year, $20 million deal and Hal Gill to a 3 year, $6.3 million contract. Yup, Pavel Kubina, he who has never broken the 40 point total and has never been better than +9 is being paid 5 MILLION DOLLARS. PER SEASON. Then there's Hal "the Glacier" Gill. Over 2 million a year for a guy who can neither skate nor score. I hope they pair him with Belak.
So now the Leafs have nearly $20 million in cap space tied up in 4 defensemen - and none of them are what I would consider clear cut "#1" guys. Smart. S-M-R-T.
- Vancouver bolsters their depleted blueline with Willie Mitchell. While the Canucks were badly in need of some depth on the back-end, Im not sure that paying a defensive defenseman $14 million over 4 years is a wise choice. At least he's a combined +44 over his last 3 seasons I guess.
- Washington plucks Pothier from the FA pool for $10 million over 4 years. This helps the Capitals get closer to the salary-basement while getting better on the back-end.
Worst Signings of the day:
Kubina, Roloson, Chara. In that order.
Sunday:
- Boston grabs our own erstwhile checker, Shean Donovan. His speed, grit and gap-toothed grin will be missed. His maddening inconsistency and offensive-zone hooking penalties will not.
- Florida grabs Ruslan salei for 4 years/12.1 million. $3mill./year? For SALEI? Most points in a season =20. Best plus/minus = +17. Well...I guess if Kubina's getting 5 mill...
- Nashville inks Jason Arnott to a 5 year/$22.5 million contract. Looks like Nashville's wish to get bigger down the middle made them overpay a tad. Arnott is a career 20-goal scorer who had a big (read: contract) season last year. If he doesn't come close to replicating his 30 goal/70 point numbers in Predators colors, they may be left lamenting the length of this contract.
- The Devils exascerbate their cap concerns by re-signing Patrik Elias to a monstrous 7 year, $42 million deal. He'll be 37 at end of this contract! Now, Elias is an elite first line left-winger...but there are simply too many variables and thus too much risk involved with a contract of this length - if Elias' play suddenly drops off 3 or 4 years from now, which is a possibility (see: Bill Guerin), the Devils will be stuck with this albatross for another 3 or 4 seasons. I can understand the compulsion to re-sign your marquee forward...but come on.
- The Islander's snag the ultimate journeyman Mike Sillinger to a relatively sane 3 year/$6.6 million deal. While I doubt he will have a repeat of his 30 goal season, he will no doubt bring some experience, leadership and stability to the Islanders forward corps. Good signing (can't remember the last time I said that about an Islander's deal).
- Alyn McCauley goes to the Kings. Three years, 6 million, not too bad.
- St. Louis removes Jay McKee from the market with a 4 year/$16 million contract. Jay McKee, who's career high is 5 goals. Good defensive defenseman, great shot-blocker...worth $4 million a year? No. I guess the Columbus Blue Jacket/Adam Foote experience hasn't really taught anyone anything.
Worst Signings of the Day:
Elias, McKee, Arnott.
Monday:
- Atlanta grabs Steve Rucchin. 3 years for about $2.8million a year, the Thrashers add a veteran 2-way presence for a pretty decent price.
- Rangers sign Aaron Ward to a 2 year/$5.5 million contract. Ward is only 33, but already has a ton of post-season experience and should stabilize the Rangers bottom-two pairing. Seems a little pricey at 2.75/year, but considering some of the other d-man deals going down...
- The Blues pick-up Guerin, Weight and Dan Hinote. Heck, they might actually have a NHL caliber roster next year. Weight will return for 3.5 mill./season for two years, while Guerin nabbed a one year contract for some mystery amount. The details surrounding the hinote deal are still fuzzy.
While adding the likes of aging stars Guerin and Weight may seem like a gamble, the Blues had very little to lose and a lot to gain. At the very least, neither of the ex-Oilers are inked for a long period of time, so the risk is minimal.
- Mike Griere and Curtis Brown both sign with the San Jose Sharks. The Griere contract is $1.75 million over 3 years. Both players were probably brought in to fill the checking-line holes left by the departures of Scott Thornton and Alyn McCauley.
- The Islanders sign Witt to a 3 year $(?) contract. Hard to evaluate the quality of this signing right now without the dollar amount. Im sure it's something absurd, given what similar guys like Willie Mitchell and Jay McKee were able to obtain. At least it's "only" a 3 year deal.
Worst Signings of the Day...none.
More to come...
Wednesday, June 28, 2006
The UFA shopping list
In line with my suggestion that the Flames will be shopping for another d-man come July, I've decided to put forward some possibilities based on this recent article detailing those blueliners who will be UFA's starting this Saturday.
The Cream:
Jovo-cop, Redden, Chara, Blake
Calgary neither needs nor could afford any of these fellers. In fact, I personally wouldn't even want the likes of Jovo on the Flames anyhow - he's a defensive liability whenever he's on the ice.
The Crop:
Jay Mckee, Filip Kuba, Kim Johnsson, Joe Corvo, Brian Pothier, Willie Mitchell, Brendan Witt, Andrei Zyuzin, Danny Markov, Jaroslav Spacek
Some definate possibilities exist within this group. Im guessing the likes of Kim Johnsson, Jay McKee and Willie Mitchell will be priced slightly above what Sutter would be willing to pay (2.5+ million). So let's throw those names out. Not only was Spacek a former Oiler, but he was also the infamous "bench torpedo" that so greviously injured Byron Ritchie during a game against the Hawks last season. So just say "no" to Jaroslav.
On the other hand, Filip Kuba is definately an interesting possibility. He's pretty big (6' 3", 200+ pounds) and mobile. Last season he had 6 goals and 25 points in 65 games with the wild, so there's some offense there as well. Oddly, Kuba was previously Flames property - he was acquired from the Panthers for Rocky Thompson!
Brian Pothier had a decent season among the various stars on the Senators blueline last year. He played 77 games, garnered 35 points and was a +29 (although, which Senator WASN'T +25 or more). He's not as big as Kuba (6', 195) but he'd make a solid 6th d-man in a pinch. He'd probably come relatively cheap.
Danny Markov is another name that bears consideration. He's fairly quick and has 472 games on NHL experience under his belt. He only managed 11 assists during his injury shortened season in 05/06, so he might come at a bargain price.
Joe Corvo might be the most interesting possibility. It depends on whether his "career year" numbers from last season - 14 goals, 40 points, +16 are an aberration or not. He's played 3 seasons at the NHL level and never been a minus player. His apparent ability to put the puck in the net would give Calgary someone else to put on the 2nd powerplay unit behind Hammer and Phaneuf. Unfortunately, Corvo's decent offensive stats will probably draw a lot of attention from other franchises, no doubt inflating his price beyond what Calgary would be willing to pay...
The Rest:
Dick Tarnstrom, Aki Berg, Tom Poti, Eric Weinrich, Keith Carney, Ken Klee, Brian Leetch, Sean Brown, Nolan Baumgartner, Niclas Wallin, Hal Gill...
Most of what's left is, frankly, crap. Many are, or have become, marginal NHL players at this point. Berg, Tarnstrom, Baumgartner and Brown should probably be playing in the AHL. The game has passed by the likes of Weinrich and Carney. Brian Leetch is a future hall of famer, but his price tag would be too high for what he brings to the table these days. Tom Poti is fast, creative with the puck, allergic to hard work and a head case. Hal Gill is huge and probably as swift as a glacier...etc etc...
At this point, I should note that it's a fools errand to try to predict Sutter's moves anyhow. From robbing San Jose for Kiprusoff to snagging Tanguay for Leopold, his moves almost always seem to come out of left field. I could probably list every single defensmen available on the market, rationally weigh each players pros and cons, come to what seems to be a pretty reasonable conclusion and still be about 10 steps away from the actual deal once it comes down. By no means will it stop me from speculating, far from it, but it does mean I get to insulate myself from my inevitable failure of accurately predicting the acquisition.
With that in mind, I'd offically like to see Calgary go after:
Kuba, Pothier, Markov and Corvo.
If there's anyone or anything I've missed, feel free to let me know.
The Cream:
Jovo-cop, Redden, Chara, Blake
Calgary neither needs nor could afford any of these fellers. In fact, I personally wouldn't even want the likes of Jovo on the Flames anyhow - he's a defensive liability whenever he's on the ice.
The Crop:
Jay Mckee, Filip Kuba, Kim Johnsson, Joe Corvo, Brian Pothier, Willie Mitchell, Brendan Witt, Andrei Zyuzin, Danny Markov, Jaroslav Spacek
Some definate possibilities exist within this group. Im guessing the likes of Kim Johnsson, Jay McKee and Willie Mitchell will be priced slightly above what Sutter would be willing to pay (2.5+ million). So let's throw those names out. Not only was Spacek a former Oiler, but he was also the infamous "bench torpedo" that so greviously injured Byron Ritchie during a game against the Hawks last season. So just say "no" to Jaroslav.
On the other hand, Filip Kuba is definately an interesting possibility. He's pretty big (6' 3", 200+ pounds) and mobile. Last season he had 6 goals and 25 points in 65 games with the wild, so there's some offense there as well. Oddly, Kuba was previously Flames property - he was acquired from the Panthers for Rocky Thompson!
Brian Pothier had a decent season among the various stars on the Senators blueline last year. He played 77 games, garnered 35 points and was a +29 (although, which Senator WASN'T +25 or more). He's not as big as Kuba (6', 195) but he'd make a solid 6th d-man in a pinch. He'd probably come relatively cheap.
Danny Markov is another name that bears consideration. He's fairly quick and has 472 games on NHL experience under his belt. He only managed 11 assists during his injury shortened season in 05/06, so he might come at a bargain price.
Joe Corvo might be the most interesting possibility. It depends on whether his "career year" numbers from last season - 14 goals, 40 points, +16 are an aberration or not. He's played 3 seasons at the NHL level and never been a minus player. His apparent ability to put the puck in the net would give Calgary someone else to put on the 2nd powerplay unit behind Hammer and Phaneuf. Unfortunately, Corvo's decent offensive stats will probably draw a lot of attention from other franchises, no doubt inflating his price beyond what Calgary would be willing to pay...
The Rest:
Dick Tarnstrom, Aki Berg, Tom Poti, Eric Weinrich, Keith Carney, Ken Klee, Brian Leetch, Sean Brown, Nolan Baumgartner, Niclas Wallin, Hal Gill...
Most of what's left is, frankly, crap. Many are, or have become, marginal NHL players at this point. Berg, Tarnstrom, Baumgartner and Brown should probably be playing in the AHL. The game has passed by the likes of Weinrich and Carney. Brian Leetch is a future hall of famer, but his price tag would be too high for what he brings to the table these days. Tom Poti is fast, creative with the puck, allergic to hard work and a head case. Hal Gill is huge and probably as swift as a glacier...etc etc...
At this point, I should note that it's a fools errand to try to predict Sutter's moves anyhow. From robbing San Jose for Kiprusoff to snagging Tanguay for Leopold, his moves almost always seem to come out of left field. I could probably list every single defensmen available on the market, rationally weigh each players pros and cons, come to what seems to be a pretty reasonable conclusion and still be about 10 steps away from the actual deal once it comes down. By no means will it stop me from speculating, far from it, but it does mean I get to insulate myself from my inevitable failure of accurately predicting the acquisition.
With that in mind, I'd offically like to see Calgary go after:
Kuba, Pothier, Markov and Corvo.
If there's anyone or anything I've missed, feel free to let me know.
Monday, June 26, 2006
Enter the "Tanger"
...Feels good to be blogging after my extended hiatus...
Onto the good news -
A few months removed from the trade deadline and shortly after a disappointingly lacklustre play-off run, Sutter finally made the kind of move Flames fans have been shrilly requesting for the last two seasons...
Enter Alex Tanguay - a legitimate first line left winger to play with Jarome Iginla. Im not sure if I should weep and thank the heavens or inspect Hell to see if it has entered that ever-elusive status of "frozen over"...
Anyways, according to his TSN scouting report, Tanguay has speed and skill to spare. In the last 3 NHL seasons, Tangs has scored 80 goals and 144(!) assists in just 222 games. Thanks in no small part to belonging to a highly sucessful Colorado avalanche franchise, Tanguay has more than 80 games of play-off experience to his credit, despite being only 26 years old.
(A brief word of caution regarding Tanguay: he's been fortunate enough to play with the likes of Forsberg, Sakic and Hejduk during his time with Colorado. No doubt that has lead to some unavoidable "padding" of his goals and assists stats. However, having seen him play numerous times in the past, Im confident that his value isn't solely based on illusory numbers)
In short, he's everything the Flames could have wanted in their pursuit for a first-line talent. He can score AND pass. He's fast. He's good in shoot-outs (thank God!). He's young and he knows what it takes to succeed in the post-season. While I suggested Patrik Elias as a fantasy roster addition in this post in May, I am by no means disappointed by the Tanguay acquisition.
Naturally, the only negative for Flames fans is the loss of Jordan Leopold. While he took a step backwards in terms of offensive production last season, it should be made clear, in no uncertain terms, that Leo is an excellent defensemen: he's slick with the puck and smooth skating. He can play top minutes and in difficult situations. he's a 25 minute/night guy and he's only 25 years old. All this for only $1.15million (this season at least). He will be sorely missed in Calgary.
So now the guessing game begins. Let's start with the forward lines:
Tanguay - Lombardi* - Iginla
Assuming Sutter actually allows any sort of trio to adhere to one another for more than 2 shifts next season, this is the scoring line I'd prefer to see. Speed and shifty play-making abilities in Lombo and Tangs. The power and finish of Iginla. Playing between two stars would only help Lombardi's development as well.
(*based on the assumption that Lombardi is tendered a qualifying offer in the next few days, of course)
Huselius - Langkow - Kobasew
A lot of people are going to pencil in Langkow on the top line...and probably for good reason. However, I think his inclusion would help to considerably solidify the 2nd unit - everyone knows Huselius and Kobasew are hardly dynamos in their own end of the rink. Langkow's veteran, 2-way presence between Juice and Chuckles means less 3on1's and multiple minuses in their stats columns at the end of the year. Also, his (almost guaranteed) 20+ goals and chemistry with Huselius are hardly detrimental.
That leaves the bottom six forwards, which are a virtual toss-up. At this point, it looks like Simon, Donovan and Leclerc won't be invited back next year. That leaves Nilson, Yelle, Amonte, McCarty, Ritchie, Lundmark and possibly a farmhand or two (Nystrom) left to fill out the checking duties.
Nilson - Yelle - Amonte
Nystrom - Lundmark - McCarty
(Ritchie)
One can only hope that Nilson, Amonte and Lundmark can provide some sort of secondary attack next season. Of course, with what should be a more potent top 6, the need for more goals from the supporting cast may be less pressing...
What of the Defense pairings you ask? Let's take a look:
Regehr - Phaneuf
One can wager after the dismal play-offs they had that the duo of Hamrlik and Phaneuf are probably finished. Not to mention that the Dion is probably ready to make the step into top pairing-type ice time. Regehr, of course, is still the undisputed #1 d-man on the team.
Hamrlik - Warrener
If Sutter doesn't feel Phaneuf is ready for top-two duties (laugh), Hamrlik may see time with Regehr. I penciled in Warrener here because Andrew "Brain-Cramp" Ference still scares me in a top 4 role. While Rhett looked a little slow at times last year, he still manages to be solid in his own end (usually). However, if the Ference version that appeared in the Flames/Duck series can show up consistently in the regular season, expect Andrew to get the call...
Ference - ?
At this point, it has to be assumed that one of Giordano, Baby Regehr or Tim Ramholt will be filling the 6th defensemen slot next year. Personally, I don't think Sutter will be completely satisfied with that top 6 - a lengthy injury to even one of the players above would tax the Flame's depth pretty significantly. Does that mean Hulse will get another shot? Doubtful, but expect Sutter to be hunting for an experienced 5th/6th d-man type in the FA market this summer.
Those are my musings, for now. Stay tuned for more Sutter moves (and further needless over-analysis on them here) in the weeks to come...
Onto the good news -
A few months removed from the trade deadline and shortly after a disappointingly lacklustre play-off run, Sutter finally made the kind of move Flames fans have been shrilly requesting for the last two seasons...
Enter Alex Tanguay - a legitimate first line left winger to play with Jarome Iginla. Im not sure if I should weep and thank the heavens or inspect Hell to see if it has entered that ever-elusive status of "frozen over"...
Anyways, according to his TSN scouting report, Tanguay has speed and skill to spare. In the last 3 NHL seasons, Tangs has scored 80 goals and 144(!) assists in just 222 games. Thanks in no small part to belonging to a highly sucessful Colorado avalanche franchise, Tanguay has more than 80 games of play-off experience to his credit, despite being only 26 years old.
(A brief word of caution regarding Tanguay: he's been fortunate enough to play with the likes of Forsberg, Sakic and Hejduk during his time with Colorado. No doubt that has lead to some unavoidable "padding" of his goals and assists stats. However, having seen him play numerous times in the past, Im confident that his value isn't solely based on illusory numbers)
In short, he's everything the Flames could have wanted in their pursuit for a first-line talent. He can score AND pass. He's fast. He's good in shoot-outs (thank God!). He's young and he knows what it takes to succeed in the post-season. While I suggested Patrik Elias as a fantasy roster addition in this post in May, I am by no means disappointed by the Tanguay acquisition.
Naturally, the only negative for Flames fans is the loss of Jordan Leopold. While he took a step backwards in terms of offensive production last season, it should be made clear, in no uncertain terms, that Leo is an excellent defensemen: he's slick with the puck and smooth skating. He can play top minutes and in difficult situations. he's a 25 minute/night guy and he's only 25 years old. All this for only $1.15million (this season at least). He will be sorely missed in Calgary.
So now the guessing game begins. Let's start with the forward lines:
Tanguay - Lombardi* - Iginla
Assuming Sutter actually allows any sort of trio to adhere to one another for more than 2 shifts next season, this is the scoring line I'd prefer to see. Speed and shifty play-making abilities in Lombo and Tangs. The power and finish of Iginla. Playing between two stars would only help Lombardi's development as well.
(*based on the assumption that Lombardi is tendered a qualifying offer in the next few days, of course)
Huselius - Langkow - Kobasew
A lot of people are going to pencil in Langkow on the top line...and probably for good reason. However, I think his inclusion would help to considerably solidify the 2nd unit - everyone knows Huselius and Kobasew are hardly dynamos in their own end of the rink. Langkow's veteran, 2-way presence between Juice and Chuckles means less 3on1's and multiple minuses in their stats columns at the end of the year. Also, his (almost guaranteed) 20+ goals and chemistry with Huselius are hardly detrimental.
That leaves the bottom six forwards, which are a virtual toss-up. At this point, it looks like Simon, Donovan and Leclerc won't be invited back next year. That leaves Nilson, Yelle, Amonte, McCarty, Ritchie, Lundmark and possibly a farmhand or two (Nystrom) left to fill out the checking duties.
Nilson - Yelle - Amonte
Nystrom - Lundmark - McCarty
(Ritchie)
One can only hope that Nilson, Amonte and Lundmark can provide some sort of secondary attack next season. Of course, with what should be a more potent top 6, the need for more goals from the supporting cast may be less pressing...
What of the Defense pairings you ask? Let's take a look:
Regehr - Phaneuf
One can wager after the dismal play-offs they had that the duo of Hamrlik and Phaneuf are probably finished. Not to mention that the Dion is probably ready to make the step into top pairing-type ice time. Regehr, of course, is still the undisputed #1 d-man on the team.
Hamrlik - Warrener
If Sutter doesn't feel Phaneuf is ready for top-two duties (laugh), Hamrlik may see time with Regehr. I penciled in Warrener here because Andrew "Brain-Cramp" Ference still scares me in a top 4 role. While Rhett looked a little slow at times last year, he still manages to be solid in his own end (usually). However, if the Ference version that appeared in the Flames/Duck series can show up consistently in the regular season, expect Andrew to get the call...
Ference - ?
At this point, it has to be assumed that one of Giordano, Baby Regehr or Tim Ramholt will be filling the 6th defensemen slot next year. Personally, I don't think Sutter will be completely satisfied with that top 6 - a lengthy injury to even one of the players above would tax the Flame's depth pretty significantly. Does that mean Hulse will get another shot? Doubtful, but expect Sutter to be hunting for an experienced 5th/6th d-man type in the FA market this summer.
Those are my musings, for now. Stay tuned for more Sutter moves (and further needless over-analysis on them here) in the weeks to come...
Tuesday, May 09, 2006
Flames Going Forward
There's no shortage of pundits and armchair GM's trying to predict the inevitable roster moves facing the Calgary Flames in light of their early play-off exit.
Not that that's going to stop me from adding my voice to the uproar.
The first thing to consider is contracts. The most likely pruning to be done will no doubt involve those players at the end of their deals. Following is a list of Calgary's signed (into 2007) players:
Forwards:
Jarome Iginla - $7 mill.
Damond Langkow - 2.442 mill.
Tony Amonte - $1.85 mill.
Marcus Nilson - $1.365 mill.
Darren McCarty - $8,00 thou.
Jamie Lundmark - $575, thou.
Byron Ritchie - $450, thou.
Forward Total -------------> approx. $15 mill.
Defensemen:
Roman Hamrlik - $3.5 mill.
Rhett Warrener - $2.35 mill.
Robyn Regehr - $1.874 mill.
Jordan Leopold - $1.15 mill.
Dion Phaneuf - $785, thou.
Andrew Ference - $750, thou.
Defensemen Total -------------> approx. $11 mill.
Goaltenders:
Miika Kiprusoff - $3.33 mill.
Team Total -------------------> approx. $30 mill.
Obviously, the Flames have little to worry on the back-end. They have all 6 top guys as well as their franchise goalie spoken for. The major areas of concern, therefore, are the forwards. Currently, the Flames have 2 front line players signed (Langkow, Iginla), 5 third/forth liner types (Nilson, Amonte, McCarty, Lundmark, Ritchie). The resulting depth chart looks something like this:
? - Langkow - Iginla
Amonte - ? - ?
Nilson - Lundmark - ?
? - Ritchie - McCarty
(Between $10 - 15 mill. cap space to work with)
That leaves a lot of holes, especially in "scoring lines" category (big surprise).
The first place to look for gap fillers is, of course, the Flames own list of pending free agents, which includes:
Kristian Huselius
Chucky Kobasew
Matthew Lombardi
Shean Donovan
Chris Simon
Stephane Yelle
Cale Hulse
Bryan Marchment
Brian Boucher
Craig Macdonald
Mike Leclerc
Lets whittle that down some to make the decision process easier. Marchement will retire and Hulse will be punted (unless he signs for the league minimum). Im guessing Brian Boucher did little to endure himself to Sutter, so the back-up job behind Kipper will probably be Krahn's to run with. As for Leclerc...he can walk as far as Im concerned. He's another 3rd line winger on a team filled with 3rd line wingers (and a relatively expensive one to boot).
That leaves us with a bit of potential top-line talent (Huselius, Lombardi, Kobasew) and some grinders and checkers (Yelle, Donovan, Simon, MacDonald). According to my amateurish depth chart above, the Flames could use a 3rd line right winger, a 3rd/4th line left winger and potentially another centerman (since Ritchie is technically a 5th guy on most rosters). On the top lines, Calgary's in need of 2nd line center and right wing as well as a #1 line lefty.
The X-factor is, no doubt, Sutter's willingness to shop around for free agents during the summer. Looking at the depth chart it could be argued that Tony Amonte is no longer a top-6 forward any longer. Meaning the Flames need to sign all 3 of their top-line free agents AND coax at least one other top-tier talent out west.
My fantasy scenario?
Sutter breaks the bank and offers Patrik Elias $6 million and sticks him on the top line with Iginla. In between, he plops Lombardi, whom he re-signs this summer for a virtual song and dance thanks to his sub-standard stats from this past season. New first line:
Elias - Lombardi - Iginla
Next, Sutter fleshes out the 2nd line by re-signing two of our 20 goals scorers (Huselius and Kobasew) whom he could combine with Mr. consistent 50-odd-points-man-Langkow.
Huselius - Langkow - Kobasew
The 3rd line will probably include Nilson, Calgary's +/- leader during the regular season, and Donovan. The latter move could be argued, thanks to his lackluster season, but Dono is still a fast skater and a decent forechecker and penalty killer. Also, he'll come cheap thanks to his blah offensive production in 05/06.
In between them will most likely be Stephane Yelle - the only way I don't see Yelle returning to Calgary next year is a green-eyed agent looking for too many dollars or too-long a contract. Let's assume that doesn't happen, which would make the 3rd line a decent "shut-down" unit:
Nilson - Yelle - Donovan
The archetypal forth-line should consist of speed, energy and tenacity. The ability to pot the odd goal here and there is an added bonus. With that in mind, I'd imagine the trio of
Amonte - Lundmark - McCarty
fit the bill pretty nicely. Amonte and Lundmark have wheels, some chemistry and the ability to score 20+ goals between them. McCarty is the consumate heart-and-soul checker and a decent compliment to the other two.
Resultant Fantasy Depth Chart:
Elias - Lombardi - Iginla
Huselius - Langkow - Kobasew
Nilson- Yelle - Donovan
Amonte - Lundmark - McCarty
(MacDonald, Ritchie)
This arrangment leaves Chris Simon out in the cold. With Amonte already signed and Nilson a better checking alternative, I simply don't see any room for Simon on the Flames anymore. He's not consistent enough nor fast enough to fill a top-line roll and Calgary already has checkers to spare. I suppose one could argue keeping Simon over MacDonald - consider, however, that the latter is younger, faster and cheaper.
As for the rest of my fantasy, I think it's all pretty reasonable aside from the Elias thing. I suppose a [insert free agent here]tag would have been a little more realistic. But I can dream, can't I? Naturally, it doesn't have to Elias; there will be a number of highly desirable free agents in the FA pool this summer. Here is an unofficial list. Feel free to pick and choose according to your preferences.
Pursuing Free Agent Issues:
Can Calgary afford it?
The Flames sold out every home game this season and will no doubt do the same next season. It's probably in managements best interest to spend money in order to keep the product competitive and demand high.
Does Calgary have the cap room?
The long answer:
The Flames have about $30 million committed for next season. After signing Lombardi ($700,000), Kobasew ($1.5 million), Huselius ($1.8 million), Yelle ($1.2 million), MacDonald ($500,000), Donovan ($700,000) and Krahn ($650,000), the Flames will likely be left with a pay-roll around $37 million. Estimates are that the cap will be raised to the $45 million mark, potentially giving Calgary about $8 million in cap space to work with*.
(*Disclaimer - my estimates regarding new salaries are barely-educated guesses. It's incredibly difficult to say what players the hockey market will value or how their value will be effected by the increasing cap. Especially since we dont really know what the cap will be increasing to. Basically, I looked at each player's compensation from this season and gave it the ol' college try.)
The short answer:
probably.
Will Sutter be willing to pay for skill?
I sure hope so. The Flames have nobody on the farm who can step in and be an impact offensive player. After ranking 27th in the league in terms of goal-scoring and bowing out early in the play-offs, it's pretty clear Calgary needs (at least) another top 6 forward if they hope to be a competitive squad next year.
Will the Flames be able to convince free agents to come to Calgary?
Hard to say. While playing in a hockey mad market for a division leader probably carries some weight, the Flames have also become known as an"offensive stats neutralizer". Since a lot of players (and agents) rely on offensive stats to boost their market value, it may be a challenge for Sutter to lure a free agent or two away from other, "offense friendly" teams. Sutter scooped up Amonte and Hamrlik last summer, so I guess it remains to be seen if he can do it again.
Anyways, that's my take on things at this early juncture. If there's anything I've missed or if there are any free agents you'd prefer to see on the first line, feel free to let me know.
Not that that's going to stop me from adding my voice to the uproar.
The first thing to consider is contracts. The most likely pruning to be done will no doubt involve those players at the end of their deals. Following is a list of Calgary's signed (into 2007) players:
Forwards:
Jarome Iginla - $7 mill.
Damond Langkow - 2.442 mill.
Tony Amonte - $1.85 mill.
Marcus Nilson - $1.365 mill.
Darren McCarty - $8,00 thou.
Jamie Lundmark - $575, thou.
Byron Ritchie - $450, thou.
Forward Total -------------> approx. $15 mill.
Defensemen:
Roman Hamrlik - $3.5 mill.
Rhett Warrener - $2.35 mill.
Robyn Regehr - $1.874 mill.
Jordan Leopold - $1.15 mill.
Dion Phaneuf - $785, thou.
Andrew Ference - $750, thou.
Defensemen Total -------------> approx. $11 mill.
Goaltenders:
Miika Kiprusoff - $3.33 mill.
Team Total -------------------> approx. $30 mill.
Obviously, the Flames have little to worry on the back-end. They have all 6 top guys as well as their franchise goalie spoken for. The major areas of concern, therefore, are the forwards. Currently, the Flames have 2 front line players signed (Langkow, Iginla), 5 third/forth liner types (Nilson, Amonte, McCarty, Lundmark, Ritchie). The resulting depth chart looks something like this:
? - Langkow - Iginla
Amonte - ? - ?
Nilson - Lundmark - ?
? - Ritchie - McCarty
(Between $10 - 15 mill. cap space to work with)
That leaves a lot of holes, especially in "scoring lines" category (big surprise).
The first place to look for gap fillers is, of course, the Flames own list of pending free agents, which includes:
Kristian Huselius
Chucky Kobasew
Matthew Lombardi
Shean Donovan
Chris Simon
Stephane Yelle
Cale Hulse
Bryan Marchment
Brian Boucher
Craig Macdonald
Mike Leclerc
Lets whittle that down some to make the decision process easier. Marchement will retire and Hulse will be punted (unless he signs for the league minimum). Im guessing Brian Boucher did little to endure himself to Sutter, so the back-up job behind Kipper will probably be Krahn's to run with. As for Leclerc...he can walk as far as Im concerned. He's another 3rd line winger on a team filled with 3rd line wingers (and a relatively expensive one to boot).
That leaves us with a bit of potential top-line talent (Huselius, Lombardi, Kobasew) and some grinders and checkers (Yelle, Donovan, Simon, MacDonald). According to my amateurish depth chart above, the Flames could use a 3rd line right winger, a 3rd/4th line left winger and potentially another centerman (since Ritchie is technically a 5th guy on most rosters). On the top lines, Calgary's in need of 2nd line center and right wing as well as a #1 line lefty.
The X-factor is, no doubt, Sutter's willingness to shop around for free agents during the summer. Looking at the depth chart it could be argued that Tony Amonte is no longer a top-6 forward any longer. Meaning the Flames need to sign all 3 of their top-line free agents AND coax at least one other top-tier talent out west.
My fantasy scenario?
Sutter breaks the bank and offers Patrik Elias $6 million and sticks him on the top line with Iginla. In between, he plops Lombardi, whom he re-signs this summer for a virtual song and dance thanks to his sub-standard stats from this past season. New first line:
Elias - Lombardi - Iginla
Next, Sutter fleshes out the 2nd line by re-signing two of our 20 goals scorers (Huselius and Kobasew) whom he could combine with Mr. consistent 50-odd-points-man-Langkow.
Huselius - Langkow - Kobasew
The 3rd line will probably include Nilson, Calgary's +/- leader during the regular season, and Donovan. The latter move could be argued, thanks to his lackluster season, but Dono is still a fast skater and a decent forechecker and penalty killer. Also, he'll come cheap thanks to his blah offensive production in 05/06.
In between them will most likely be Stephane Yelle - the only way I don't see Yelle returning to Calgary next year is a green-eyed agent looking for too many dollars or too-long a contract. Let's assume that doesn't happen, which would make the 3rd line a decent "shut-down" unit:
Nilson - Yelle - Donovan
The archetypal forth-line should consist of speed, energy and tenacity. The ability to pot the odd goal here and there is an added bonus. With that in mind, I'd imagine the trio of
Amonte - Lundmark - McCarty
fit the bill pretty nicely. Amonte and Lundmark have wheels, some chemistry and the ability to score 20+ goals between them. McCarty is the consumate heart-and-soul checker and a decent compliment to the other two.
Resultant Fantasy Depth Chart:
Elias - Lombardi - Iginla
Huselius - Langkow - Kobasew
Nilson- Yelle - Donovan
Amonte - Lundmark - McCarty
(MacDonald, Ritchie)
This arrangment leaves Chris Simon out in the cold. With Amonte already signed and Nilson a better checking alternative, I simply don't see any room for Simon on the Flames anymore. He's not consistent enough nor fast enough to fill a top-line roll and Calgary already has checkers to spare. I suppose one could argue keeping Simon over MacDonald - consider, however, that the latter is younger, faster and cheaper.
As for the rest of my fantasy, I think it's all pretty reasonable aside from the Elias thing. I suppose a [insert free agent here]
Pursuing Free Agent Issues:
Can Calgary afford it?
The Flames sold out every home game this season and will no doubt do the same next season. It's probably in managements best interest to spend money in order to keep the product competitive and demand high.
Does Calgary have the cap room?
The long answer:
The Flames have about $30 million committed for next season. After signing Lombardi ($700,000), Kobasew ($1.5 million), Huselius ($1.8 million), Yelle ($1.2 million), MacDonald ($500,000), Donovan ($700,000) and Krahn ($650,000), the Flames will likely be left with a pay-roll around $37 million. Estimates are that the cap will be raised to the $45 million mark, potentially giving Calgary about $8 million in cap space to work with*.
(*Disclaimer - my estimates regarding new salaries are barely-educated guesses. It's incredibly difficult to say what players the hockey market will value or how their value will be effected by the increasing cap. Especially since we dont really know what the cap will be increasing to. Basically, I looked at each player's compensation from this season and gave it the ol' college try.)
The short answer:
probably.
Will Sutter be willing to pay for skill?
I sure hope so. The Flames have nobody on the farm who can step in and be an impact offensive player. After ranking 27th in the league in terms of goal-scoring and bowing out early in the play-offs, it's pretty clear Calgary needs (at least) another top 6 forward if they hope to be a competitive squad next year.
Will the Flames be able to convince free agents to come to Calgary?
Hard to say. While playing in a hockey mad market for a division leader probably carries some weight, the Flames have also become known as an"offensive stats neutralizer". Since a lot of players (and agents) rely on offensive stats to boost their market value, it may be a challenge for Sutter to lure a free agent or two away from other, "offense friendly" teams. Sutter scooped up Amonte and Hamrlik last summer, so I guess it remains to be seen if he can do it again.
Anyways, that's my take on things at this early juncture. If there's anything I've missed or if there are any free agents you'd prefer to see on the first line, feel free to let me know.
Thursday, May 04, 2006
The Hollow Men
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.
Words can hardly ring truer for Calgary Flames fans today. Their season came to a bitter end at the hands of the Duck's last night - and the Flames barely put up a fight.
Shape without form, shade without colour,
Paralysed force, gesture without motion
Eliot was probably aiming at weightier subjects than hockey when he wrote this poem. However, it's so eerily appropriate, I couldn't resist applying it to Calgary's play-off efforts...
Paralysed force, indeed.
Billed as a relentlessly hard working team that tended to will itself to victory, despite their lack of scoring talent, the Flames instead looked like an apprehensive collection of rookies and weaklings for the most part. All during the most critical game of the season to boot. It was the way they began the season, and unfortuantely, the way they ended it as well.
Yup, even with all the "experience", the superior goaltending and the solid blueline corps, the Flames couldn't find a way to escape themselves. In the end, Flames(a), the Mr. Hyde version that tended to haunt the club all season long, was the squad that showed up in the pinch. It was the squad that couldn't muster a single decent scoring chance on back-up goaltenders or win a puck battle in the corner. And it's the squad that may linger in the memories of the hockey-world, despite the Flames rather successful regular season.
The hope only
Of empty men.
The third period of empty men, it seemed. Calgary never looked like they had the stuff to comeback. It appeared to me like a bunch of guys going through the motions with the knowledge that their actions would have no real impact.
Between the idea
And the reality[...]
Falls the Shadow
The idea, of course, was that Calgary would out hit and out work the Ducks in this series. The reality is they were beaten at their own game. The shadow of doubt cast between theory and execution was Calgary's own inconsistency (underscored by a lack of scoring talent) and the Duck's willingness and ability to adapt to Calgary's game plan and improve upon it. In the end, the Flames either didn't have the heart or the horses to accomplish their post-season goals, and now they are left lamenting their weaknesses.
This is the dead land...
And so the Flames end up in play-off purgatory: the land of "unfullfilled promise". Littered by other disappointments ("ahoy, Nashville!") choke-artists ("Greetings, Dallas!") and underachievers ("Afternoon, Detroit!"), and haunted by all the might've could-have-beens ("We would have won if Bertuzzi hadn't been suspended"). The skulls of past losers and the fresh corpses of recent victims litter this land. And it stinks...
Positives:
- None that I can think of.
Negatives:
- Zero Offense. The Power play was useless and the forecheck was laughable. Any rare opportunity that cropped up was squandered.
- Average defense. The Ducks gained the zone with relative ease most of the evening. Kipper was screened on both shots by his own players. The 2nd goal was caused by a horrible clearing attempt by Hamrlik.
- Effort. The Flames seemed to be stuck in neutral all night. They almost never won a puck battle or a puck race. They couldn't make it past the Duck's blueline half the time and couldn't string 2 passes together in sequence.
- Roman Hamrlik, Tony Amonte, Chuck Kobasew, Lombardi, Simon...all basically useless last night.
- Pre-mature end to the season.
Next up - A year in review.
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.
Words can hardly ring truer for Calgary Flames fans today. Their season came to a bitter end at the hands of the Duck's last night - and the Flames barely put up a fight.
Shape without form, shade without colour,
Paralysed force, gesture without motion
Eliot was probably aiming at weightier subjects than hockey when he wrote this poem. However, it's so eerily appropriate, I couldn't resist applying it to Calgary's play-off efforts...
Paralysed force, indeed.
Billed as a relentlessly hard working team that tended to will itself to victory, despite their lack of scoring talent, the Flames instead looked like an apprehensive collection of rookies and weaklings for the most part. All during the most critical game of the season to boot. It was the way they began the season, and unfortuantely, the way they ended it as well.
Yup, even with all the "experience", the superior goaltending and the solid blueline corps, the Flames couldn't find a way to escape themselves. In the end, Flames(a), the Mr. Hyde version that tended to haunt the club all season long, was the squad that showed up in the pinch. It was the squad that couldn't muster a single decent scoring chance on back-up goaltenders or win a puck battle in the corner. And it's the squad that may linger in the memories of the hockey-world, despite the Flames rather successful regular season.
The hope only
Of empty men.
The third period of empty men, it seemed. Calgary never looked like they had the stuff to comeback. It appeared to me like a bunch of guys going through the motions with the knowledge that their actions would have no real impact.
Between the idea
And the reality[...]
Falls the Shadow
The idea, of course, was that Calgary would out hit and out work the Ducks in this series. The reality is they were beaten at their own game. The shadow of doubt cast between theory and execution was Calgary's own inconsistency (underscored by a lack of scoring talent) and the Duck's willingness and ability to adapt to Calgary's game plan and improve upon it. In the end, the Flames either didn't have the heart or the horses to accomplish their post-season goals, and now they are left lamenting their weaknesses.
This is the dead land...
And so the Flames end up in play-off purgatory: the land of "unfullfilled promise". Littered by other disappointments ("ahoy, Nashville!") choke-artists ("Greetings, Dallas!") and underachievers ("Afternoon, Detroit!"), and haunted by all the might've could-have-beens ("We would have won if Bertuzzi hadn't been suspended"). The skulls of past losers and the fresh corpses of recent victims litter this land. And it stinks...
Positives:
- None that I can think of.
Negatives:
- Zero Offense. The Power play was useless and the forecheck was laughable. Any rare opportunity that cropped up was squandered.
- Average defense. The Ducks gained the zone with relative ease most of the evening. Kipper was screened on both shots by his own players. The 2nd goal was caused by a horrible clearing attempt by Hamrlik.
- Effort. The Flames seemed to be stuck in neutral all night. They almost never won a puck battle or a puck race. They couldn't make it past the Duck's blueline half the time and couldn't string 2 passes together in sequence.
- Roman Hamrlik, Tony Amonte, Chuck Kobasew, Lombardi, Simon...all basically useless last night.
- Pre-mature end to the season.
Next up - A year in review.
Tuesday, May 02, 2006
Flames vs. Ducks - Game Six Review: Whip or Leash?
Leave it to the Flames to follow up their best game of the series with their worst (let's try to ignore the fact that the officiating pretty much turned the game into a farce for now).
Ugh.
Which reminds me of a something I noticed during the regular season...as I pointed out in this post back in March, there seems to be 2 distinct Calgary Flames teams this year:
Flames(a) first appeared in October. They tend to be slower, more passive, less apt to win puck battles, less able to hold onto leads and just plain bad on special teams. Flames(a) typically appeared on the road this year, see: first roadtrip, last roadtrip, eastern swing in January.
Flames(b) are the November Flames. They tend to be faster, tougher on the boards and killer on special teams. Flames(b) typically appeared at home this year, see: November extended home-stand, April home-stand.
During this series, Calgary has alternated between it's two identities - game 3 and 5 were Flames(b) while games 2,4 and 6 were Flames(a) (game 1 was a wash). They seem consistently stuck in this cycle of inconsistency:
from dictating to passive.
Dominating to submissive. And for the love of God I wish they'd choose one and stick with it. Wield the whip or wear the leash. Be Zed or be the gimp, but please just pick one and go with it.
As for last night, I don't think there's any question that it was the Flames(a) squad that took to the ice. Almost zero offensive pressure generated after the first period, including a powerplay so pensive and inept that they almost universally failed to penetrate the offensive zone when they had the man advantage.
In contrast to Flames(b) in game 5, Flames(a) were limp on the forecheck and flacid on the back-check. Passes were frequently too far ahead or too far behind. Poor decision making also seemed to sweep through the team like wild fire - for example, Robyn Regehr lugs the puck into the neutral zone and then fails to shoot it deep into the Duck's end (for no good reason). The Ducks counter-attack, Regehr can't recover, and Selanne pots a top-shelf back-hander (that is subsequently waved off by the galatically moronic officials). All caused by a brain-malfunction on what is an elementary play - repeat after me, peewee players: DON'T GIVE THE PUCK AWAY AT THE OPPOSITION'S BLUELINE. ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE A PINCHING DEFENSEMAN. Duh!
And that's how it goes for Flames(a). The forecheck slows down, the confidence wanes and then little, simple plays start going wrong all over the ice. For an eloquent example, just picture Warrener sliding, face-first, towards Niedermayer as the puck deflects off his skate for the game-losing goal.
Sigh.
I suppose the good news is that we are back on the positive side of the cycle for game 7. Wednesday should feature Flames(b), according to the pattern established in this current series. And, should they manage to appear, I eanestly hope the dominating Flames stick around for the remainder of the post-season...because teasing the fans with this on-again, off-again performance is probably the most sadistic part of all.
Positives:
- Phaneuf's pasting of Fedoruk in the 3rd.
Negatives:
- Discipline, forechecking, powerplay, offense, defense. You name it. All ranged from bland to bad.
- Officiating. So terrible it makes my face twitch just thinking about it. Deserves a whole other post.
Ugh.
Which reminds me of a something I noticed during the regular season...as I pointed out in this post back in March, there seems to be 2 distinct Calgary Flames teams this year:
Flames(a) first appeared in October. They tend to be slower, more passive, less apt to win puck battles, less able to hold onto leads and just plain bad on special teams. Flames(a) typically appeared on the road this year, see: first roadtrip, last roadtrip, eastern swing in January.
Flames(b) are the November Flames. They tend to be faster, tougher on the boards and killer on special teams. Flames(b) typically appeared at home this year, see: November extended home-stand, April home-stand.
During this series, Calgary has alternated between it's two identities - game 3 and 5 were Flames(b) while games 2,4 and 6 were Flames(a) (game 1 was a wash). They seem consistently stuck in this cycle of inconsistency:
from dictating to passive.
Dominating to submissive. And for the love of God I wish they'd choose one and stick with it. Wield the whip or wear the leash. Be Zed or be the gimp, but please just pick one and go with it.
As for last night, I don't think there's any question that it was the Flames(a) squad that took to the ice. Almost zero offensive pressure generated after the first period, including a powerplay so pensive and inept that they almost universally failed to penetrate the offensive zone when they had the man advantage.
In contrast to Flames(b) in game 5, Flames(a) were limp on the forecheck and flacid on the back-check. Passes were frequently too far ahead or too far behind. Poor decision making also seemed to sweep through the team like wild fire - for example, Robyn Regehr lugs the puck into the neutral zone and then fails to shoot it deep into the Duck's end (for no good reason). The Ducks counter-attack, Regehr can't recover, and Selanne pots a top-shelf back-hander (that is subsequently waved off by the galatically moronic officials). All caused by a brain-malfunction on what is an elementary play - repeat after me, peewee players: DON'T GIVE THE PUCK AWAY AT THE OPPOSITION'S BLUELINE. ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE A PINCHING DEFENSEMAN. Duh!
And that's how it goes for Flames(a). The forecheck slows down, the confidence wanes and then little, simple plays start going wrong all over the ice. For an eloquent example, just picture Warrener sliding, face-first, towards Niedermayer as the puck deflects off his skate for the game-losing goal.
Sigh.
I suppose the good news is that we are back on the positive side of the cycle for game 7. Wednesday should feature Flames(b), according to the pattern established in this current series. And, should they manage to appear, I eanestly hope the dominating Flames stick around for the remainder of the post-season...because teasing the fans with this on-again, off-again performance is probably the most sadistic part of all.
Positives:
- Phaneuf's pasting of Fedoruk in the 3rd.
Negatives:
- Discipline, forechecking, powerplay, offense, defense. You name it. All ranged from bland to bad.
- Officiating. So terrible it makes my face twitch just thinking about it. Deserves a whole other post.
Monday, May 01, 2006
Just One More...
Just one more win will do a lot for the Calgary Flames...
Finally, they'd be able to shake off that cloying "cinderella/One-hit-wonder" aura that has surrounded them since their cup run last season.
One more win would help cement all the positives of their division-leading season, 103 point season and simultaneously blur and subdue all of it's disappointments. Iginla wallowing amongst the league's medicore forwards on the scoring charts will mean about as much as a Vancouver fan's opinion during the play-offs...with another win.
Another lone victory would also extend and augment my shameless obsession. More stats! More blogs! More messageboards! More gut-wrenching overtimes! Think "Requiem for a Dream":
without all the interpersonal pathos of course.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, one more victory would move Calgary ever closer to a potential 2nd round Battle of Alberta (and the Stanely Cup, I guess)! I think even Patton would salivate at the mere thought of that all-out war.
So, for the sake of all the above, please win one more, Calgary. I don't think I can face rehabilitation just yet.
Finally, they'd be able to shake off that cloying "cinderella/One-hit-wonder" aura that has surrounded them since their cup run last season.
One more win would help cement all the positives of their division-leading season, 103 point season and simultaneously blur and subdue all of it's disappointments. Iginla wallowing amongst the league's medicore forwards on the scoring charts will mean about as much as a Vancouver fan's opinion during the play-offs...with another win.
Another lone victory would also extend and augment my shameless obsession. More stats! More blogs! More messageboards! More gut-wrenching overtimes! Think "Requiem for a Dream":
without all the interpersonal pathos of course.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, one more victory would move Calgary ever closer to a potential 2nd round Battle of Alberta (and the Stanely Cup, I guess)! I think even Patton would salivate at the mere thought of that all-out war.
So, for the sake of all the above, please win one more, Calgary. I don't think I can face rehabilitation just yet.
Flames vs. Ducks - Game Five Review (brief)
Despite falling two goals short (of their series high 5 goals in a game), I felt that the Flame's victory on Saturday night was probably their strongest game of the series. While the final score was 3-2, the Ducks were never seemed like much of a threat through most of the contest.
In fact, I find it challenging to remember even a single decent mallard scoring chance outside of the final 5 minutes of the 3rd period.
Not much else needs to be said methinks. Iginla's playing like he was two years ago at this time, everyone's healthy and the series if up for the taking...good news all around.
Positives:
- Jarome Iginla. Four goals in 2 games. It's nice to have you back, Iggy.
- Matthew Lombardi. There's little chance he reads this blog - nevertheless, Lombardi seemed to respond to being tossed into last game's "negative" category with his best performance thus far.
- Andrew Ference. Who is this and what has he done with the real Ference? Not that we want the old Ference back or anything.
- Damond Langkow. A quiet and solid all around contributor.
- Robyn Regehr. Seems to get meaner every game.
Negatives:
- Allowed the Ducks back in the game near the end of the 3rd by sitting back and taking penalties.
- Officiating. Only partially negative because there were only 10 power plays all night. However, at least half the penalties called were EXTREMELY nominal (or not penalties at all). It was amusing listening to Andy Murray trying to be polite about the referees during CBC's broadcast.
Next up - Game 6!
In fact, I find it challenging to remember even a single decent mallard scoring chance outside of the final 5 minutes of the 3rd period.
Not much else needs to be said methinks. Iginla's playing like he was two years ago at this time, everyone's healthy and the series if up for the taking...good news all around.
Positives:
- Jarome Iginla. Four goals in 2 games. It's nice to have you back, Iggy.
- Matthew Lombardi. There's little chance he reads this blog - nevertheless, Lombardi seemed to respond to being tossed into last game's "negative" category with his best performance thus far.
- Andrew Ference. Who is this and what has he done with the real Ference? Not that we want the old Ference back or anything.
- Damond Langkow. A quiet and solid all around contributor.
- Robyn Regehr. Seems to get meaner every game.
Negatives:
- Allowed the Ducks back in the game near the end of the 3rd by sitting back and taking penalties.
- Officiating. Only partially negative because there were only 10 power plays all night. However, at least half the penalties called were EXTREMELY nominal (or not penalties at all). It was amusing listening to Andy Murray trying to be polite about the referees during CBC's broadcast.
Next up - Game 6!
Friday, April 28, 2006
Flames vs. Ducks - Game Four Review
Besides a tied series, the Flame's loss to the Ducks yielded a couple of controversies as well:
1.) The high-sticking penalty assessed to Yelle near the end of the 3rd period was not, in fact, a penalty according to the NHL rulebook. For a lengthier discussion on the topic, see this post by Matt over at the Battle of Alberta.
2.) Rob Niedermayer's skate may have been a factor in the overtime GWG. Observe -
Looks like goalie interference to me.
So...Yelle shouldn't have been in the box in overtime and the goal probably shouldn't have counted.
But that's not (completely) why the Flames were losers last night.
If you look closely at the picture above, you'll find a truer example of why Calgary failed to go up 3-1 over the Ducks. Take a look: It's not Kipper or Niedermayer - it's Shean Donovan. And, just out of frame, is Shean Donovan's man, Sean O'Donnell, who is about 1/5th of a second away from celebrating his surprisingly clear look (and therefore) easy shot at the Calgary net.
So...Why was O' Donnell left completely uncovered by Dono (who chose to further crowd the front of the net for no apparent reason)? Who knows? But it's bonehead plays like that one that cause teams to lose games (controversy or no). A veteran penalty killer causelessly leaves his man uncovered and you end up lameting bad officiating rather than celebrating a victory. If Donovan is in position on that play, O'Donnell doesn't get a clear shot and Yelle's back on the ice.
Donovan's not the only guilt party this time, however. The entire club came out listless and disorganized (in the second period, especially). Guys named "Hamrlik", "Simon" and "Phaneuf" (among others) had terrible games all around. I mean, have you ever seen a break-away like Getzlaf's at the professional hockey level before? He skated up the middle, from his own end , and wasn't even touched by either defender (who were both back on the blueline at the time).
I was fairly stunned by that one.
At first I wondered if the "D" had been caught in a change or a pinch or had fallen down, were abducted by aliens, etc, etc...something to explain the embarassingly open lane Getzlaf had to the Calgary net.
There was no explanation. Except, perhaps; slow, stupid hockey.
The lone bright spot for Calgary was probably Jarome Iginla. Iggy single-handedly turned the contest around in the 3rd and changed a potential blow-out into a tie game. Too bad whatever he had didn't rub off on the rest of the team last night...
Positives:
- Jarome Iginla. Two goals in first 3 minutes of the 3rd. Best Flames forward.
- Andrew Ference. He's gone from an inconsistent 6th defenseman to a reliable top 4 man in the last 4 games. Impressive.
- Jordan Leopold. A quiet, but still excellent, game.
Negatives:
- Roman Hamrlik and Dion Phaneuf. Both near the bottom of the league in terms of +/-. Neither looks comfortable or even competent out there right now.
- Chris Simon. Took a giant step-backwards from his game 3. Did little of note and never finished a body-check.
- Shean Donovan. See above.
- Powerplay. A complete reversal from last game. I can't even recall one decent scoring chance from the 6 PP opportunities Calgary had over the course of the game.
- Kristian Huselius. In contrast to his first 3 games, Juice was total non-entity yesterday.
- Matthew Lombardi. When is this kid going to start fulfilling his roll as an offensive weapon? I think he has all of 1 assist in the series so far.
- Entire second period. Allow 2 goals and create absolutely no offensive pressure. Brutal.
Next up - Game 5!
1.) The high-sticking penalty assessed to Yelle near the end of the 3rd period was not, in fact, a penalty according to the NHL rulebook. For a lengthier discussion on the topic, see this post by Matt over at the Battle of Alberta.
2.) Rob Niedermayer's skate may have been a factor in the overtime GWG. Observe -
Looks like goalie interference to me.
So...Yelle shouldn't have been in the box in overtime and the goal probably shouldn't have counted.
But that's not (completely) why the Flames were losers last night.
If you look closely at the picture above, you'll find a truer example of why Calgary failed to go up 3-1 over the Ducks. Take a look: It's not Kipper or Niedermayer - it's Shean Donovan. And, just out of frame, is Shean Donovan's man, Sean O'Donnell, who is about 1/5th of a second away from celebrating his surprisingly clear look (and therefore) easy shot at the Calgary net.
So...Why was O' Donnell left completely uncovered by Dono (who chose to further crowd the front of the net for no apparent reason)? Who knows? But it's bonehead plays like that one that cause teams to lose games (controversy or no). A veteran penalty killer causelessly leaves his man uncovered and you end up lameting bad officiating rather than celebrating a victory. If Donovan is in position on that play, O'Donnell doesn't get a clear shot and Yelle's back on the ice.
Donovan's not the only guilt party this time, however. The entire club came out listless and disorganized (in the second period, especially). Guys named "Hamrlik", "Simon" and "Phaneuf" (among others) had terrible games all around. I mean, have you ever seen a break-away like Getzlaf's at the professional hockey level before? He skated up the middle, from his own end , and wasn't even touched by either defender (who were both back on the blueline at the time).
I was fairly stunned by that one.
At first I wondered if the "D" had been caught in a change or a pinch or had fallen down, were abducted by aliens, etc, etc...something to explain the embarassingly open lane Getzlaf had to the Calgary net.
There was no explanation. Except, perhaps; slow, stupid hockey.
The lone bright spot for Calgary was probably Jarome Iginla. Iggy single-handedly turned the contest around in the 3rd and changed a potential blow-out into a tie game. Too bad whatever he had didn't rub off on the rest of the team last night...
Positives:
- Jarome Iginla. Two goals in first 3 minutes of the 3rd. Best Flames forward.
- Andrew Ference. He's gone from an inconsistent 6th defenseman to a reliable top 4 man in the last 4 games. Impressive.
- Jordan Leopold. A quiet, but still excellent, game.
Negatives:
- Roman Hamrlik and Dion Phaneuf. Both near the bottom of the league in terms of +/-. Neither looks comfortable or even competent out there right now.
- Chris Simon. Took a giant step-backwards from his game 3. Did little of note and never finished a body-check.
- Shean Donovan. See above.
- Powerplay. A complete reversal from last game. I can't even recall one decent scoring chance from the 6 PP opportunities Calgary had over the course of the game.
- Kristian Huselius. In contrast to his first 3 games, Juice was total non-entity yesterday.
- Matthew Lombardi. When is this kid going to start fulfilling his roll as an offensive weapon? I think he has all of 1 assist in the series so far.
- Entire second period. Allow 2 goals and create absolutely no offensive pressure. Brutal.
Next up - Game 5!
Thursday, April 27, 2006
Cripple the Quackers
Chance for the Flames to deal a crippling blow to the Ducks tonight. I would be pretty damn happy if the boys somehow managed to go up by two games. I was initially hoping for a split coming out of the Duck Pond - but now Im hungry for a road sweep. It would increase the probability that Calgary could end the series relatively quickly and rest before heading into the next round.
I guess Im counting chickens before they hatch. Calgary still needs to win 2 games against what is (and will be) a fast, hungry and determined foe. Anaheim will be particularly grumpy tonight: the Flames embarassed them on home ice and put one of their teammates in the hospital. That's a lot of potential motivation. Not to mention the whole "falling 2 games behind" thing.
Yeah, the Duck's are gonna be fired up this evening. The key(s) to victory will no doubt be weathering the early storm, playing disciplined and continuing to take advantage of powerplays. A big game by our superstars, Iginla and Kiprusoff, will also be a much needed ingredient for a Flames win. Neither Iggy nor Kipper have been particularly sublime the last two matches, so they may be due.
On a general hockey note, it will be interesting to see what adjustments Carlyle has made to his team, specifically the penalty-kill. After watching Huselius dipsy-doodle his way to 3 points from the half-boards last game, you gotta think the Duck's will want to shift their focus that-a-way. Of course, does that mean a shift back to the original Flame's PP strategy? It sure is nice to have the option, that's for sure.
It's also been whispered on local radio shows that JS Giguere will be manning the Anaheim nets tonight.
And I have no problem with that at all.
So far, JS has surrendered 8 goals to our "pop-gun" offense in only 2 contests. He certainly hasn't shown the form that lead the Ducks to the finals 2 seasons ago yet in this series (in fact, he hasn't really show it at any given point since), so I think it's safe to declare that the Flame's have the surperior goaltending in this match-up. If Calgary can continue to squeeze a questionable goal or two out of Giguere while playing smart hockey in their own end of the rink (read: no half dozen odd-man rushes), the chances of winning tonight's game, and the series, are very, very good.
I guess Im counting chickens before they hatch. Calgary still needs to win 2 games against what is (and will be) a fast, hungry and determined foe. Anaheim will be particularly grumpy tonight: the Flames embarassed them on home ice and put one of their teammates in the hospital. That's a lot of potential motivation. Not to mention the whole "falling 2 games behind" thing.
Yeah, the Duck's are gonna be fired up this evening. The key(s) to victory will no doubt be weathering the early storm, playing disciplined and continuing to take advantage of powerplays. A big game by our superstars, Iginla and Kiprusoff, will also be a much needed ingredient for a Flames win. Neither Iggy nor Kipper have been particularly sublime the last two matches, so they may be due.
On a general hockey note, it will be interesting to see what adjustments Carlyle has made to his team, specifically the penalty-kill. After watching Huselius dipsy-doodle his way to 3 points from the half-boards last game, you gotta think the Duck's will want to shift their focus that-a-way. Of course, does that mean a shift back to the original Flame's PP strategy? It sure is nice to have the option, that's for sure.
It's also been whispered on local radio shows that JS Giguere will be manning the Anaheim nets tonight.
And I have no problem with that at all.
So far, JS has surrendered 8 goals to our "pop-gun" offense in only 2 contests. He certainly hasn't shown the form that lead the Ducks to the finals 2 seasons ago yet in this series (in fact, he hasn't really show it at any given point since), so I think it's safe to declare that the Flame's have the surperior goaltending in this match-up. If Calgary can continue to squeeze a questionable goal or two out of Giguere while playing smart hockey in their own end of the rink (read: no half dozen odd-man rushes), the chances of winning tonight's game, and the series, are very, very good.
Wednesday, April 26, 2006
Smarter Not Harder
That's more like it!
The Flames burned the Ducks last night, no doubt engendering a collective sigh of relief from their fans.
Big hits, opportunistic scoring, solid defense. That's the team we know and love.
While the temptation is to herald an increased work ethic, I think last night's win was more about playing smarter than harder. I was never under the impression that the Flames weren't trying a whole lot in the first two contests; in fact, I think they worked their asses off. Unfortunately, when you spin your wheels in the mud, putting the pedal to the medal doesn't get you very far.
No, I think this win was more about coaching and focus. Sutter obviously made some adjustments: the powerplay, in particular, went under the knife and became a new creature altogether:
Gone was the "shoot and skate hard" entry strategy.
Gone was the "blast from the point" scoring plan.
Instead, Sutter instilled his PP unit(s) with an almost gentle patience - wait stoically at the Duck's blueline for an opening in order to skate the puck into the zone. With the o-zone safely penetrated, set-up the attack around the newly crowned PP quarterback, Kristian Huselius. Next, Huselius would dip and dangle, scanning the ice so he could thread a pass or risk a shot. Things were never rushed, often in control. The result was 3 (nearly 4) powerplay goals.
Clearly Sutter recognized that Carlyle and company had decided to focus on Dion and the point shot in their penalty kill. In response, Sutter shifted the Flame's focus to the side-boards and Huselius' puck control. This obviously opened up the potential for more scoring chances down low, especially with Anaheim cheating towards the point...
...and guess what?! It worked! One could almost imagine Darryl eagerly dry-washing his hands on the bench, muttering, "it's all going according to plan..."
Of course, that wasn't the extent of Sutter's alterations:
Amonte played on the first line a lot (not sure if that accomplished anything), the veteran blueliners played more than the rookie and Simon and Lundmark drew into the line-up. After his GWG assist, Im hoping Simon will remain a fixture in the roster. As for the Dion, I think it's probably a wise move to ease him into his first play-offs...I assume he'll get better as the series goes along and he becomes less the "nervous kid". Im lukewarm on whether the Amonte move should stay or go.
As for the players themselves, they seemed to settle down and focus on playing "Calgary hockey". It was a much smarter game, defense-wise, than the prior 4-3 loss to be sure. I'm not certain if the Ducks managed to pry even a single odd-man rush from the Flames last night (as compared to the half dozen they got on Sunday). So why the turn-around? I think the combination of "needing a win" (+) more ice for the vets (+) playing pressureless in front of the Duck's crowd helped in that regard.
Another not-insignificant point to consider is that the Flames pretty much schooled the Ducks despite many of their top players having a "just okay" game. Iginla was fairly quiet all evening. Dion Phaneuf played for only 15 minutes. Kiprusoff let in 2 shots from the point! And yet, Calgary managed to pot 5 en route to a 3 goal margin in the victory.
This, Flames fans, is probably the most encouraging part of all.
Positives:
- Take a 2-1 series lead.
- Kristian Huselius. Has already collected 5 points in 3 games. Easily the most dangerous Flame in the offensive zone.
- Rhett Warrener. See video.
- Chris Simon. Gets back into the line-up and makes a great play to set-up Kobasew for the GWG.
- Powerplay. Goes 3 for 7 on the night. the difference maker.
- Darren McCarty. Scores his second goal of the series and then later blocks a Duck shot with his FACE.
Negatives:
- Penalty-kill. Allows two goals after being perfect in the first 2 games.
- Undisciplined. Have to cut down on the penalties. Ducks have already had 4 5on3 advantages in this series.
- Tony Amonte. Moved up to the first line and looked rather confused. muffed a 2on1 by shooting lamely into the side of the net.
Next up - Game 4!
The Flames burned the Ducks last night, no doubt engendering a collective sigh of relief from their fans.
Big hits, opportunistic scoring, solid defense. That's the team we know and love.
While the temptation is to herald an increased work ethic, I think last night's win was more about playing smarter than harder. I was never under the impression that the Flames weren't trying a whole lot in the first two contests; in fact, I think they worked their asses off. Unfortunately, when you spin your wheels in the mud, putting the pedal to the medal doesn't get you very far.
No, I think this win was more about coaching and focus. Sutter obviously made some adjustments: the powerplay, in particular, went under the knife and became a new creature altogether:
Gone was the "shoot and skate hard" entry strategy.
Gone was the "blast from the point" scoring plan.
Instead, Sutter instilled his PP unit(s) with an almost gentle patience - wait stoically at the Duck's blueline for an opening in order to skate the puck into the zone. With the o-zone safely penetrated, set-up the attack around the newly crowned PP quarterback, Kristian Huselius. Next, Huselius would dip and dangle, scanning the ice so he could thread a pass or risk a shot. Things were never rushed, often in control. The result was 3 (nearly 4) powerplay goals.
Clearly Sutter recognized that Carlyle and company had decided to focus on Dion and the point shot in their penalty kill. In response, Sutter shifted the Flame's focus to the side-boards and Huselius' puck control. This obviously opened up the potential for more scoring chances down low, especially with Anaheim cheating towards the point...
...and guess what?! It worked! One could almost imagine Darryl eagerly dry-washing his hands on the bench, muttering, "it's all going according to plan..."
Of course, that wasn't the extent of Sutter's alterations:
Amonte played on the first line a lot (not sure if that accomplished anything), the veteran blueliners played more than the rookie and Simon and Lundmark drew into the line-up. After his GWG assist, Im hoping Simon will remain a fixture in the roster. As for the Dion, I think it's probably a wise move to ease him into his first play-offs...I assume he'll get better as the series goes along and he becomes less the "nervous kid". Im lukewarm on whether the Amonte move should stay or go.
As for the players themselves, they seemed to settle down and focus on playing "Calgary hockey". It was a much smarter game, defense-wise, than the prior 4-3 loss to be sure. I'm not certain if the Ducks managed to pry even a single odd-man rush from the Flames last night (as compared to the half dozen they got on Sunday). So why the turn-around? I think the combination of "needing a win" (+) more ice for the vets (+) playing pressureless in front of the Duck's crowd helped in that regard.
Another not-insignificant point to consider is that the Flames pretty much schooled the Ducks despite many of their top players having a "just okay" game. Iginla was fairly quiet all evening. Dion Phaneuf played for only 15 minutes. Kiprusoff let in 2 shots from the point! And yet, Calgary managed to pot 5 en route to a 3 goal margin in the victory.
This, Flames fans, is probably the most encouraging part of all.
Positives:
- Take a 2-1 series lead.
- Kristian Huselius. Has already collected 5 points in 3 games. Easily the most dangerous Flame in the offensive zone.
- Rhett Warrener. See video.
- Chris Simon. Gets back into the line-up and makes a great play to set-up Kobasew for the GWG.
- Powerplay. Goes 3 for 7 on the night. the difference maker.
- Darren McCarty. Scores his second goal of the series and then later blocks a Duck shot with his FACE.
Negatives:
- Penalty-kill. Allows two goals after being perfect in the first 2 games.
- Undisciplined. Have to cut down on the penalties. Ducks have already had 4 5on3 advantages in this series.
- Tony Amonte. Moved up to the first line and looked rather confused. muffed a 2on1 by shooting lamely into the side of the net.
Next up - Game 4!
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