Flames Going Forward

There's no shortage of pundits and armchair GM's trying to predict the inevitable roster moves facing the Calgary Flames in light of their early play-off exit.

Not that that's going to stop me from adding my voice to the uproar.

The first thing to consider is contracts. The most likely pruning to be done will no doubt involve those players at the end of their deals. Following is a list of Calgary's signed (into 2007) players:

Forwards:
Jarome Iginla - $7 mill.
Damond Langkow - 2.442 mill.
Tony Amonte - $1.85 mill.
Marcus Nilson - $1.365 mill.
Darren McCarty - $8,00 thou.
Jamie Lundmark - $575, thou.
Byron Ritchie - $450, thou.

Forward Total -------------> approx. $15 mill.

Defensemen:
Roman Hamrlik - $3.5 mill.
Rhett Warrener - $2.35 mill.
Robyn Regehr - $1.874 mill.
Jordan Leopold - $1.15 mill.
Dion Phaneuf - $785, thou.
Andrew Ference - $750, thou.

Defensemen Total -------------> approx. $11 mill.

Goaltenders:
Miika Kiprusoff - $3.33 mill.

Team Total -------------------> approx. $30 mill.

Obviously, the Flames have little to worry on the back-end. They have all 6 top guys as well as their franchise goalie spoken for. The major areas of concern, therefore, are the forwards. Currently, the Flames have 2 front line players signed (Langkow, Iginla), 5 third/forth liner types (Nilson, Amonte, McCarty, Lundmark, Ritchie). The resulting depth chart looks something like this:

? - Langkow - Iginla
Amonte - ? - ?
Nilson - Lundmark - ?
? - Ritchie - McCarty

(Between $10 - 15 mill. cap space to work with)

That leaves a lot of holes, especially in "scoring lines" category (big surprise).

The first place to look for gap fillers is, of course, the Flames own list of pending free agents, which includes:

Kristian Huselius
Chucky Kobasew
Matthew Lombardi
Shean Donovan
Chris Simon
Stephane Yelle
Cale Hulse
Bryan Marchment
Brian Boucher
Craig Macdonald
Mike Leclerc

Lets whittle that down some to make the decision process easier. Marchement will retire and Hulse will be punted (unless he signs for the league minimum). Im guessing Brian Boucher did little to endure himself to Sutter, so the back-up job behind Kipper will probably be Krahn's to run with. As for Leclerc...he can walk as far as Im concerned. He's another 3rd line winger on a team filled with 3rd line wingers (and a relatively expensive one to boot).

That leaves us with a bit of potential top-line talent (Huselius, Lombardi, Kobasew) and some grinders and checkers (Yelle, Donovan, Simon, MacDonald). According to my amateurish depth chart above, the Flames could use a 3rd line right winger, a 3rd/4th line left winger and potentially another centerman (since Ritchie is technically a 5th guy on most rosters). On the top lines, Calgary's in need of 2nd line center and right wing as well as a #1 line lefty.

The X-factor is, no doubt, Sutter's willingness to shop around for free agents during the summer. Looking at the depth chart it could be argued that Tony Amonte is no longer a top-6 forward any longer. Meaning the Flames need to sign all 3 of their top-line free agents AND coax at least one other top-tier talent out west.

My fantasy scenario?

Sutter breaks the bank and offers Patrik Elias $6 million and sticks him on the top line with Iginla. In between, he plops Lombardi, whom he re-signs this summer for a virtual song and dance thanks to his sub-standard stats from this past season. New first line:

Elias - Lombardi - Iginla

Next, Sutter fleshes out the 2nd line by re-signing two of our 20 goals scorers (Huselius and Kobasew) whom he could combine with Mr. consistent 50-odd-points-man-Langkow.

Huselius - Langkow - Kobasew

The 3rd line will probably include Nilson, Calgary's +/- leader during the regular season, and Donovan. The latter move could be argued, thanks to his lackluster season, but Dono is still a fast skater and a decent forechecker and penalty killer. Also, he'll come cheap thanks to his blah offensive production in 05/06.

In between them will most likely be Stephane Yelle - the only way I don't see Yelle returning to Calgary next year is a green-eyed agent looking for too many dollars or too-long a contract. Let's assume that doesn't happen, which would make the 3rd line a decent "shut-down" unit:

Nilson - Yelle - Donovan

The archetypal forth-line should consist of speed, energy and tenacity. The ability to pot the odd goal here and there is an added bonus. With that in mind, I'd imagine the trio of

Amonte - Lundmark - McCarty

fit the bill pretty nicely. Amonte and Lundmark have wheels, some chemistry and the ability to score 20+ goals between them. McCarty is the consumate heart-and-soul checker and a decent compliment to the other two.

Resultant Fantasy Depth Chart:

Elias - Lombardi - Iginla
Huselius - Langkow - Kobasew
Nilson- Yelle - Donovan
Amonte - Lundmark - McCarty

(MacDonald, Ritchie)

This arrangment leaves Chris Simon out in the cold. With Amonte already signed and Nilson a better checking alternative, I simply don't see any room for Simon on the Flames anymore. He's not consistent enough nor fast enough to fill a top-line roll and Calgary already has checkers to spare. I suppose one could argue keeping Simon over MacDonald - consider, however, that the latter is younger, faster and cheaper.

As for the rest of my fantasy, I think it's all pretty reasonable aside from the Elias thing. I suppose a [insert free agent here] tag would have been a little more realistic. But I can dream, can't I? Naturally, it doesn't have to Elias; there will be a number of highly desirable free agents in the FA pool this summer. Here is an unofficial list. Feel free to pick and choose according to your preferences.

Pursuing Free Agent Issues:

Can Calgary afford it?

The Flames sold out every home game this season and will no doubt do the same next season. It's probably in managements best interest to spend money in order to keep the product competitive and demand high.

Does Calgary have the cap room?

The long answer:

The Flames have about $30 million committed for next season. After signing Lombardi ($700,000), Kobasew ($1.5 million), Huselius ($1.8 million), Yelle ($1.2 million), MacDonald ($500,000), Donovan ($700,000) and Krahn ($650,000), the Flames will likely be left with a pay-roll around $37 million. Estimates are that the cap will be raised to the $45 million mark, potentially giving Calgary about $8 million in cap space to work with*.

(*Disclaimer - my estimates regarding new salaries are barely-educated guesses. It's incredibly difficult to say what players the hockey market will value or how their value will be effected by the increasing cap. Especially since we dont really know what the cap will be increasing to. Basically, I looked at each player's compensation from this season and gave it the ol' college try.)

The short answer:

probably.

Will Sutter be willing to pay for skill?

I sure hope so. The Flames have nobody on the farm who can step in and be an impact offensive player. After ranking 27th in the league in terms of goal-scoring and bowing out early in the play-offs, it's pretty clear Calgary needs (at least) another top 6 forward if they hope to be a competitive squad next year.

Will the Flames be able to convince free agents to come to Calgary?

Hard to say. While playing in a hockey mad market for a division leader probably carries some weight, the Flames have also become known as an"offensive stats neutralizer". Since a lot of players (and agents) rely on offensive stats to boost their market value, it may be a challenge for Sutter to lure a free agent or two away from other, "offense friendly" teams. Sutter scooped up Amonte and Hamrlik last summer, so I guess it remains to be seen if he can do it again.


Anyways, that's my take on things at this early juncture. If there's anything I've missed or if there are any free agents you'd prefer to see on the first line, feel free to let me know.