Friesen: The First Line Controversy

The newest debate raging amongst Flame's fan these days is: who will ride the left side on the #1 line come winter?

Course, the assumption is that both Iginla and Tanguay will be the primary fixtures on the top scoring unit. If you take Sutter's assertion that Tangs will be skating down the middle as a Flaming "C" at face value, then the left-winger to complete the trio becomes the lone unknown.

Considering the Flame's depth on the left side:

Kristian Huselius
Marcus Nilson
Jeff Friesen
(Eric Nystrom?)

the natural choice seems to be Kristian Huselius. He's got top-notch stickhandling and puck-distribution skills and is a great producer on the PP. Personally, however, I would prefer to see Juice on the 2nd unit with Damond Langkow and Chuck Kobasew (both de facto 2nd liners since Tanguay and Iginla are the unquestioned #1 guys at those respective positions). As I recall, Langkow and Juice were perhaps the only forward tandem that developed a modicum of chemistry last season. In addition, it would probably be beneficial to spread out the offensive threats across two lines (can't remember the last time I said that about the Flames) rather than concentrate all the firepower on the top unit. So, basically, Im hoping the Huselius-Tanguay-Iginla line is the first PP unit rather than the #1 even-strength unit.

Marcus Nilson? He's a checking line winger. He'll be killing penalties and playing against other #1 lines all year with Stephane Yelle no doubt. So scratch Nilson.

As for Eric Nystrom, Im not even sure he'll make the team...let alone get time with Tangs and Iginla.

Therefore, as far as natural left-wingers go, Jeff Friesen is the last choice. And considering his rather dreadful season last year, it doesn't seem to be a very savory one. For those uninformed few, Friesen played for the Capitals and the Ducks in 05/06 and only managed to accrue a paltry 11 points in 51 GP. That's a 17 point year had he played the full 82 games. Which is just bad. Really, really bad.

Fortunately, if one were to look at Friesen's career thus far, it's probably reasonable to consider last season an abberation - he's scored 20+ goals and 50+ points five times previously. He was drafted in the first round back '94 with the view of becoming a goal-scorer at the NHL level. So there's obviously some ability there. The question remains whether Friesen is actually a worthy reclamation project or just another failed experiment who is swiftly and inexorably sinking into career-4th-liner obscurity.

With that question in mind, I went about investigating Friesen's even-strength and powerplay production efficiency over the 2 seasons prior to 05/06. I figured by treating his most recent performance as the statistical abortion it appears to be, I may be able to determine his true utility as an offensive player...

In 02/03, Friesen played approximately 1259 total minutes, 1042 of which were ES and 207 were PP minutes. That year with the Devils he scored 43 ESP and 8 PPP. His ESP/60 and PPP/60 stats came out to about 2.48 and 2.32, respectively. While the former is superior to most Flames forwards (from the 05/06 season), it's probably a rather median figure in terms of top 6 forwards in the league. The latter number is pretty much pitiful, considering that Jordan Leopold's most recent ESP/60 stat was 3.25. Ouch.

In 03/04, Friesen's offensive production went down. He played similar minutes (1226 total, 1035 ES and 18 PP) but only produced 26 ESP and 11 PPP. That translates to an ESP/60 stat of approx. 1.51 and a PPP/60 stat of 3.53. While his PP proficiency managed to reach that of, say, a servicable 1st unit defenseman, his even-strength proficiency dived to the level of a 4th liner. Hmm...not good.

I figured I might as well average the numbers over the 2 seasons, so I summed the relevant ice-times and offensive stats and generated an "overall" ESP/60 stat of 1.99 and a PPP/60 figure of 2.89.

So, yeah...crappy. Nothing about these figures says "first-line winger" to me. If anything, Friesen seems to be charted on that course to obscurity I mentioned above. I suppose there are some other factors worth considering here - Friesen was stuck behind Patrik Elias on the depth charts in NJ, which no doubt limited (to a degree) the amount he played with "top-line talent". In addition, the Devils were hardly an offensive force from 02-04. In fact, even though Friesen managed a mere 37 points in 03/04, he actually placed 3rd on the Devils behind Gomez and Elias as far as point-getters were concerned (keep in mind, however, that the drop-off was a fairly significant one: Elias scored 81 points and Gomez 70). In addition, I suppose I could have employed Friesen's career numbers for this investigation, although it's questionable how relevant his 62 point performance in 96/97 would be, at least in terms of trying to predict his performance for the 05/06 season - to this end, his more recent numbers probably have more utility.

Overall, there's a good chance Friesen will get some time on the top line, by virtue of his being a left-winger, but he likely won't do a lot while there if the stats are to be trusted. Were I to guess, I'd predict Friesen will eventually be relegated to 3rd/4th line duty with Amonte and Lundmark.

As far as the #1 line goes...I'd personally prefer to see Lombo gunning down the left-wing with Iginla and Tangs (assuming he'll be re-signed, that is). With the Flame's sudden over-flow of centermen (Tanguay, Langkow, Yelle, Lundmark, Ritchie, Lombardi), converting one of the face-off men to the wing will no doubt be a necessity anyhow. Lombo is fast, an excellent passer and showed some chemistry with Iginla in his rookie season (IIRC). And he's left-handed. If the Flames management (ie Sutter) is serious about developing Lombardi into a offensive forward, I can't think of a better way to accomplish that feat than granting him significant ice-time with the likes of Iginla and Tanguay. While re-invigorating the career of a 30 year-old ex-goal-scorer (who appears to have settled into mediocrity) may be a worthwhile experiment...I'd prefer to bank on developing a future sniper in Lombardi with our potentially potent, first-line assests (Iginla, Tamguay) this coming season.