Flames Going Forward

There's no shortage of pundits and armchair GM's trying to predict the inevitable roster moves facing the Calgary Flames in light of their early play-off exit.

Not that that's going to stop me from adding my voice to the uproar.

The first thing to consider is contracts. The most likely pruning to be done will no doubt involve those players at the end of their deals. Following is a list of Calgary's signed (into 2007) players:

Forwards:
Jarome Iginla - $7 mill.
Damond Langkow - 2.442 mill.
Tony Amonte - $1.85 mill.
Marcus Nilson - $1.365 mill.
Darren McCarty - $8,00 thou.
Jamie Lundmark - $575, thou.
Byron Ritchie - $450, thou.

Forward Total -------------> approx. $15 mill.

Defensemen:
Roman Hamrlik - $3.5 mill.
Rhett Warrener - $2.35 mill.
Robyn Regehr - $1.874 mill.
Jordan Leopold - $1.15 mill.
Dion Phaneuf - $785, thou.
Andrew Ference - $750, thou.

Defensemen Total -------------> approx. $11 mill.

Goaltenders:
Miika Kiprusoff - $3.33 mill.

Team Total -------------------> approx. $30 mill.

Obviously, the Flames have little to worry on the back-end. They have all 6 top guys as well as their franchise goalie spoken for. The major areas of concern, therefore, are the forwards. Currently, the Flames have 2 front line players signed (Langkow, Iginla), 5 third/forth liner types (Nilson, Amonte, McCarty, Lundmark, Ritchie). The resulting depth chart looks something like this:

? - Langkow - Iginla
Amonte - ? - ?
Nilson - Lundmark - ?
? - Ritchie - McCarty

(Between $10 - 15 mill. cap space to work with)

That leaves a lot of holes, especially in "scoring lines" category (big surprise).

The first place to look for gap fillers is, of course, the Flames own list of pending free agents, which includes:

Kristian Huselius
Chucky Kobasew
Matthew Lombardi
Shean Donovan
Chris Simon
Stephane Yelle
Cale Hulse
Bryan Marchment
Brian Boucher
Craig Macdonald
Mike Leclerc

Lets whittle that down some to make the decision process easier. Marchement will retire and Hulse will be punted (unless he signs for the league minimum). Im guessing Brian Boucher did little to endure himself to Sutter, so the back-up job behind Kipper will probably be Krahn's to run with. As for Leclerc...he can walk as far as Im concerned. He's another 3rd line winger on a team filled with 3rd line wingers (and a relatively expensive one to boot).

That leaves us with a bit of potential top-line talent (Huselius, Lombardi, Kobasew) and some grinders and checkers (Yelle, Donovan, Simon, MacDonald). According to my amateurish depth chart above, the Flames could use a 3rd line right winger, a 3rd/4th line left winger and potentially another centerman (since Ritchie is technically a 5th guy on most rosters). On the top lines, Calgary's in need of 2nd line center and right wing as well as a #1 line lefty.

The X-factor is, no doubt, Sutter's willingness to shop around for free agents during the summer. Looking at the depth chart it could be argued that Tony Amonte is no longer a top-6 forward any longer. Meaning the Flames need to sign all 3 of their top-line free agents AND coax at least one other top-tier talent out west.

My fantasy scenario?

Sutter breaks the bank and offers Patrik Elias $6 million and sticks him on the top line with Iginla. In between, he plops Lombardi, whom he re-signs this summer for a virtual song and dance thanks to his sub-standard stats from this past season. New first line:

Elias - Lombardi - Iginla

Next, Sutter fleshes out the 2nd line by re-signing two of our 20 goals scorers (Huselius and Kobasew) whom he could combine with Mr. consistent 50-odd-points-man-Langkow.

Huselius - Langkow - Kobasew

The 3rd line will probably include Nilson, Calgary's +/- leader during the regular season, and Donovan. The latter move could be argued, thanks to his lackluster season, but Dono is still a fast skater and a decent forechecker and penalty killer. Also, he'll come cheap thanks to his blah offensive production in 05/06.

In between them will most likely be Stephane Yelle - the only way I don't see Yelle returning to Calgary next year is a green-eyed agent looking for too many dollars or too-long a contract. Let's assume that doesn't happen, which would make the 3rd line a decent "shut-down" unit:

Nilson - Yelle - Donovan

The archetypal forth-line should consist of speed, energy and tenacity. The ability to pot the odd goal here and there is an added bonus. With that in mind, I'd imagine the trio of

Amonte - Lundmark - McCarty

fit the bill pretty nicely. Amonte and Lundmark have wheels, some chemistry and the ability to score 20+ goals between them. McCarty is the consumate heart-and-soul checker and a decent compliment to the other two.

Resultant Fantasy Depth Chart:

Elias - Lombardi - Iginla
Huselius - Langkow - Kobasew
Nilson- Yelle - Donovan
Amonte - Lundmark - McCarty

(MacDonald, Ritchie)

This arrangment leaves Chris Simon out in the cold. With Amonte already signed and Nilson a better checking alternative, I simply don't see any room for Simon on the Flames anymore. He's not consistent enough nor fast enough to fill a top-line roll and Calgary already has checkers to spare. I suppose one could argue keeping Simon over MacDonald - consider, however, that the latter is younger, faster and cheaper.

As for the rest of my fantasy, I think it's all pretty reasonable aside from the Elias thing. I suppose a [insert free agent here] tag would have been a little more realistic. But I can dream, can't I? Naturally, it doesn't have to Elias; there will be a number of highly desirable free agents in the FA pool this summer. Here is an unofficial list. Feel free to pick and choose according to your preferences.

Pursuing Free Agent Issues:

Can Calgary afford it?

The Flames sold out every home game this season and will no doubt do the same next season. It's probably in managements best interest to spend money in order to keep the product competitive and demand high.

Does Calgary have the cap room?

The long answer:

The Flames have about $30 million committed for next season. After signing Lombardi ($700,000), Kobasew ($1.5 million), Huselius ($1.8 million), Yelle ($1.2 million), MacDonald ($500,000), Donovan ($700,000) and Krahn ($650,000), the Flames will likely be left with a pay-roll around $37 million. Estimates are that the cap will be raised to the $45 million mark, potentially giving Calgary about $8 million in cap space to work with*.

(*Disclaimer - my estimates regarding new salaries are barely-educated guesses. It's incredibly difficult to say what players the hockey market will value or how their value will be effected by the increasing cap. Especially since we dont really know what the cap will be increasing to. Basically, I looked at each player's compensation from this season and gave it the ol' college try.)

The short answer:

probably.

Will Sutter be willing to pay for skill?

I sure hope so. The Flames have nobody on the farm who can step in and be an impact offensive player. After ranking 27th in the league in terms of goal-scoring and bowing out early in the play-offs, it's pretty clear Calgary needs (at least) another top 6 forward if they hope to be a competitive squad next year.

Will the Flames be able to convince free agents to come to Calgary?

Hard to say. While playing in a hockey mad market for a division leader probably carries some weight, the Flames have also become known as an"offensive stats neutralizer". Since a lot of players (and agents) rely on offensive stats to boost their market value, it may be a challenge for Sutter to lure a free agent or two away from other, "offense friendly" teams. Sutter scooped up Amonte and Hamrlik last summer, so I guess it remains to be seen if he can do it again.


Anyways, that's my take on things at this early juncture. If there's anything I've missed or if there are any free agents you'd prefer to see on the first line, feel free to let me know.

The Hollow Men

This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

Words can hardly ring truer for Calgary Flames fans today. Their season came to a bitter end at the hands of the Duck's last night - and the Flames barely put up a fight.

Shape without form, shade without colour,
Paralysed force, gesture without motion

Eliot was probably aiming at weightier subjects than hockey when he wrote this poem. However, it's so eerily appropriate, I couldn't resist applying it to Calgary's play-off efforts...

Paralysed force, indeed.

Billed as a relentlessly hard working team that tended to will itself to victory, despite their lack of scoring talent, the Flames instead looked like an apprehensive collection of rookies and weaklings for the most part. All during the most critical game of the season to boot. It was the way they began the season, and unfortuantely, the way they ended it as well.

Yup, even with all the "experience", the superior goaltending and the solid blueline corps, the Flames couldn't find a way to escape themselves. In the end, Flames(a), the Mr. Hyde version that tended to haunt the club all season long, was the squad that showed up in the pinch. It was the squad that couldn't muster a single decent scoring chance on back-up goaltenders or win a puck battle in the corner. And it's the squad that may linger in the memories of the hockey-world, despite the Flames rather successful regular season.

The hope only
Of empty men.

The third period of empty men, it seemed. Calgary never looked like they had the stuff to comeback. It appeared to me like a bunch of guys going through the motions with the knowledge that their actions would have no real impact.

Between the idea
And the reality[...]
Falls the Shadow

The idea, of course, was that Calgary would out hit and out work the Ducks in this series. The reality is they were beaten at their own game. The shadow of doubt cast between theory and execution was Calgary's own inconsistency (underscored by a lack of scoring talent) and the Duck's willingness and ability to adapt to Calgary's game plan and improve upon it. In the end, the Flames either didn't have the heart or the horses to accomplish their post-season goals, and now they are left lamenting their weaknesses.

This is the dead land...

And so the Flames end up in play-off purgatory: the land of "unfullfilled promise". Littered by other disappointments ("ahoy, Nashville!") choke-artists ("Greetings, Dallas!") and underachievers ("Afternoon, Detroit!"), and haunted by all the might've could-have-beens ("We would have won if Bertuzzi hadn't been suspended"). The skulls of past losers and the fresh corpses of recent victims litter this land. And it stinks...

Positives:

- None that I can think of.

Negatives:

- Zero Offense. The Power play was useless and the forecheck was laughable. Any rare opportunity that cropped up was squandered.

- Average defense. The Ducks gained the zone with relative ease most of the evening. Kipper was screened on both shots by his own players. The 2nd goal was caused by a horrible clearing attempt by Hamrlik.

- Effort. The Flames seemed to be stuck in neutral all night. They almost never won a puck battle or a puck race. They couldn't make it past the Duck's blueline half the time and couldn't string 2 passes together in sequence.

- Roman Hamrlik, Tony Amonte, Chuck Kobasew, Lombardi, Simon...all basically useless last night.

- Pre-mature end to the season.

Next up - A year in review.

Flames vs. Ducks - Game Six Review: Whip or Leash?

Leave it to the Flames to follow up their best game of the series with their worst (let's try to ignore the fact that the officiating pretty much turned the game into a farce for now).

Ugh.

Which reminds me of a something I noticed during the regular season...as I pointed out in this post back in March, there seems to be 2 distinct Calgary Flames teams this year:

Flames(a) first appeared in October. They tend to be slower, more passive, less apt to win puck battles, less able to hold onto leads and just plain bad on special teams. Flames(a) typically appeared on the road this year, see: first roadtrip, last roadtrip, eastern swing in January.

Flames(b) are the November Flames. They tend to be faster, tougher on the boards and killer on special teams. Flames(b) typically appeared at home this year, see: November extended home-stand, April home-stand.

During this series, Calgary has alternated between it's two identities - game 3 and 5 were Flames(b) while games 2,4 and 6 were Flames(a) (game 1 was a wash). They seem consistently stuck in this cycle of inconsistency:

from dictating to passive.

Dominating to submissive. And for the love of God I wish they'd choose one and stick with it. Wield the whip or wear the leash. Be Zed or be the gimp, but please just pick one and go with it.

As for last night, I don't think there's any question that it was the Flames(a) squad that took to the ice. Almost zero offensive pressure generated after the first period, including a powerplay so pensive and inept that they almost universally failed to penetrate the offensive zone when they had the man advantage.

In contrast to Flames(b) in game 5, Flames(a) were limp on the forecheck and flacid on the back-check. Passes were frequently too far ahead or too far behind. Poor decision making also seemed to sweep through the team like wild fire - for example, Robyn Regehr lugs the puck into the neutral zone and then fails to shoot it deep into the Duck's end (for no good reason). The Ducks counter-attack, Regehr can't recover, and Selanne pots a top-shelf back-hander (that is subsequently waved off by the galatically moronic officials). All caused by a brain-malfunction on what is an elementary play - repeat after me, peewee players: DON'T GIVE THE PUCK AWAY AT THE OPPOSITION'S BLUELINE. ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE A PINCHING DEFENSEMAN. Duh!

And that's how it goes for Flames(a). The forecheck slows down, the confidence wanes and then little, simple plays start going wrong all over the ice. For an eloquent example, just picture Warrener sliding, face-first, towards Niedermayer as the puck deflects off his skate for the game-losing goal.

Sigh.

I suppose the good news is that we are back on the positive side of the cycle for game 7. Wednesday should feature Flames(b), according to the pattern established in this current series. And, should they manage to appear, I eanestly hope the dominating Flames stick around for the remainder of the post-season...because teasing the fans with this on-again, off-again performance is probably the most sadistic part of all.

Positives:

- Phaneuf's pasting of Fedoruk in the 3rd.

Negatives:

- Discipline, forechecking, powerplay, offense, defense. You name it. All ranged from bland to bad.

- Officiating. So terrible it makes my face twitch just thinking about it. Deserves a whole other post.

Just One More...

Just one more win will do a lot for the Calgary Flames...

Finally, they'd be able to shake off that cloying "cinderella/One-hit-wonder" aura that has surrounded them since their cup run last season.

One more win would help cement all the positives of their division-leading season, 103 point season and simultaneously blur and subdue all of it's disappointments. Iginla wallowing amongst the league's medicore forwards on the scoring charts will mean about as much as a Vancouver fan's opinion during the play-offs...with another win.

Another lone victory would also extend and augment my shameless obsession. More stats! More blogs! More messageboards! More gut-wrenching overtimes! Think "Requiem for a Dream":



without all the interpersonal pathos of course.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, one more victory would move Calgary ever closer to a potential 2nd round Battle of Alberta (and the Stanely Cup, I guess)! I think even Patton would salivate at the mere thought of that all-out war.

So, for the sake of all the above, please win one more, Calgary. I don't think I can face rehabilitation just yet.

Flames vs. Ducks - Game Five Review (brief)

Despite falling two goals short (of their series high 5 goals in a game), I felt that the Flame's victory on Saturday night was probably their strongest game of the series. While the final score was 3-2, the Ducks were never seemed like much of a threat through most of the contest.

In fact, I find it challenging to remember even a single decent mallard scoring chance outside of the final 5 minutes of the 3rd period.

Not much else needs to be said methinks. Iginla's playing like he was two years ago at this time, everyone's healthy and the series if up for the taking...good news all around.

Positives:

- Jarome Iginla. Four goals in 2 games. It's nice to have you back, Iggy.

- Matthew Lombardi. There's little chance he reads this blog - nevertheless, Lombardi seemed to respond to being tossed into last game's "negative" category with his best performance thus far.

- Andrew Ference. Who is this and what has he done with the real Ference? Not that we want the old Ference back or anything.

- Damond Langkow. A quiet and solid all around contributor.

- Robyn Regehr. Seems to get meaner every game.

Negatives:

- Allowed the Ducks back in the game near the end of the 3rd by sitting back and taking penalties.

- Officiating. Only partially negative because there were only 10 power plays all night. However, at least half the penalties called were EXTREMELY nominal (or not penalties at all). It was amusing listening to Andy Murray trying to be polite about the referees during CBC's broadcast.

Next up - Game 6!

Flames vs. Ducks - Game Four Review

Besides a tied series, the Flame's loss to the Ducks yielded a couple of controversies as well:

1.) The high-sticking penalty assessed to Yelle near the end of the 3rd period was not, in fact, a penalty according to the NHL rulebook. For a lengthier discussion on the topic, see this post by Matt over at the Battle of Alberta.

2.) Rob Niedermayer's skate may have been a factor in the overtime GWG. Observe -


Looks like goalie interference to me.

So...Yelle shouldn't have been in the box in overtime and the goal probably shouldn't have counted.

But that's not (completely) why the Flames were losers last night.

If you look closely at the picture above, you'll find a truer example of why Calgary failed to go up 3-1 over the Ducks. Take a look: It's not Kipper or Niedermayer - it's Shean Donovan. And, just out of frame, is Shean Donovan's man, Sean O'Donnell, who is about 1/5th of a second away from celebrating his surprisingly clear look (and therefore) easy shot at the Calgary net.

So...Why was O' Donnell left completely uncovered by Dono (who chose to further crowd the front of the net for no apparent reason)? Who knows? But it's bonehead plays like that one that cause teams to lose games (controversy or no). A veteran penalty killer causelessly leaves his man uncovered and you end up lameting bad officiating rather than celebrating a victory. If Donovan is in position on that play, O'Donnell doesn't get a clear shot and Yelle's back on the ice.

Donovan's not the only guilt party this time, however. The entire club came out listless and disorganized (in the second period, especially). Guys named "Hamrlik", "Simon" and "Phaneuf" (among others) had terrible games all around. I mean, have you ever seen a break-away like Getzlaf's at the professional hockey level before? He skated up the middle, from his own end , and wasn't even touched by either defender (who were both back on the blueline at the time).

I was fairly stunned by that one.

At first I wondered if the "D" had been caught in a change or a pinch or had fallen down, were abducted by aliens, etc, etc...something to explain the embarassingly open lane Getzlaf had to the Calgary net.

There was no explanation. Except, perhaps; slow, stupid hockey.

The lone bright spot for Calgary was probably Jarome Iginla. Iggy single-handedly turned the contest around in the 3rd and changed a potential blow-out into a tie game. Too bad whatever he had didn't rub off on the rest of the team last night...

Positives:

- Jarome Iginla. Two goals in first 3 minutes of the 3rd. Best Flames forward.

- Andrew Ference. He's gone from an inconsistent 6th defenseman to a reliable top 4 man in the last 4 games. Impressive.

- Jordan Leopold. A quiet, but still excellent, game.

Negatives:

- Roman Hamrlik and Dion Phaneuf. Both near the bottom of the league in terms of +/-. Neither looks comfortable or even competent out there right now.

- Chris Simon. Took a giant step-backwards from his game 3. Did little of note and never finished a body-check.

- Shean Donovan. See above.

- Powerplay. A complete reversal from last game. I can't even recall one decent scoring chance from the 6 PP opportunities Calgary had over the course of the game.

- Kristian Huselius. In contrast to his first 3 games, Juice was total non-entity yesterday.

- Matthew Lombardi. When is this kid going to start fulfilling his roll as an offensive weapon? I think he has all of 1 assist in the series so far.

- Entire second period. Allow 2 goals and create absolutely no offensive pressure. Brutal.

Next up - Game 5!

Cripple the Quackers

Chance for the Flames to deal a crippling blow to the Ducks tonight. I would be pretty damn happy if the boys somehow managed to go up by two games. I was initially hoping for a split coming out of the Duck Pond - but now Im hungry for a road sweep. It would increase the probability that Calgary could end the series relatively quickly and rest before heading into the next round.

I guess Im counting chickens before they hatch. Calgary still needs to win 2 games against what is (and will be) a fast, hungry and determined foe. Anaheim will be particularly grumpy tonight: the Flames embarassed them on home ice and put one of their teammates in the hospital. That's a lot of potential motivation. Not to mention the whole "falling 2 games behind" thing.

Yeah, the Duck's are gonna be fired up this evening. The key(s) to victory will no doubt be weathering the early storm, playing disciplined and continuing to take advantage of powerplays. A big game by our superstars, Iginla and Kiprusoff, will also be a much needed ingredient for a Flames win. Neither Iggy nor Kipper have been particularly sublime the last two matches, so they may be due.

On a general hockey note, it will be interesting to see what adjustments Carlyle has made to his team, specifically the penalty-kill. After watching Huselius dipsy-doodle his way to 3 points from the half-boards last game, you gotta think the Duck's will want to shift their focus that-a-way. Of course, does that mean a shift back to the original Flame's PP strategy? It sure is nice to have the option, that's for sure.

It's also been whispered on local radio shows that JS Giguere will be manning the Anaheim nets tonight.

And I have no problem with that at all.

So far, JS has surrendered 8 goals to our "pop-gun" offense in only 2 contests. He certainly hasn't shown the form that lead the Ducks to the finals 2 seasons ago yet in this series (in fact, he hasn't really show it at any given point since), so I think it's safe to declare that the Flame's have the surperior goaltending in this match-up. If Calgary can continue to squeeze a questionable goal or two out of Giguere while playing smart hockey in their own end of the rink (read: no half dozen odd-man rushes), the chances of winning tonight's game, and the series, are very, very good.

Smarter Not Harder

That's more like it!

The Flames burned the Ducks last night, no doubt engendering a collective sigh of relief from their fans.

Big hits, opportunistic scoring, solid defense. That's the team we know and love.

While the temptation is to herald an increased work ethic, I think last night's win was more about playing smarter than harder. I was never under the impression that the Flames weren't trying a whole lot in the first two contests; in fact, I think they worked their asses off. Unfortunately, when you spin your wheels in the mud, putting the pedal to the medal doesn't get you very far.

No, I think this win was more about coaching and focus. Sutter obviously made some adjustments: the powerplay, in particular, went under the knife and became a new creature altogether:

Gone was the "shoot and skate hard" entry strategy.
Gone was the "blast from the point" scoring plan.

Instead, Sutter instilled his PP unit(s) with an almost gentle patience - wait stoically at the Duck's blueline for an opening in order to skate the puck into the zone. With the o-zone safely penetrated, set-up the attack around the newly crowned PP quarterback, Kristian Huselius. Next, Huselius would dip and dangle, scanning the ice so he could thread a pass or risk a shot. Things were never rushed, often in control. The result was 3 (nearly 4) powerplay goals.

Clearly Sutter recognized that Carlyle and company had decided to focus on Dion and the point shot in their penalty kill. In response, Sutter shifted the Flame's focus to the side-boards and Huselius' puck control. This obviously opened up the potential for more scoring chances down low, especially with Anaheim cheating towards the point...

...and guess what?! It worked! One could almost imagine Darryl eagerly dry-washing his hands on the bench, muttering, "it's all going according to plan..."

Of course, that wasn't the extent of Sutter's alterations:

Amonte played on the first line a lot (not sure if that accomplished anything), the veteran blueliners played more than the rookie and Simon and Lundmark drew into the line-up. After his GWG assist, Im hoping Simon will remain a fixture in the roster. As for the Dion, I think it's probably a wise move to ease him into his first play-offs...I assume he'll get better as the series goes along and he becomes less the "nervous kid". Im lukewarm on whether the Amonte move should stay or go.

As for the players themselves, they seemed to settle down and focus on playing "Calgary hockey". It was a much smarter game, defense-wise, than the prior 4-3 loss to be sure. I'm not certain if the Ducks managed to pry even a single odd-man rush from the Flames last night (as compared to the half dozen they got on Sunday). So why the turn-around? I think the combination of "needing a win" (+) more ice for the vets (+) playing pressureless in front of the Duck's crowd helped in that regard.

Another not-insignificant point to consider is that the Flames pretty much schooled the Ducks despite many of their top players having a "just okay" game. Iginla was fairly quiet all evening. Dion Phaneuf played for only 15 minutes. Kiprusoff let in 2 shots from the point! And yet, Calgary managed to pot 5 en route to a 3 goal margin in the victory.

This, Flames fans, is probably the most encouraging part of all.

Positives:

- Take a 2-1 series lead.

- Kristian Huselius. Has already collected 5 points in 3 games. Easily the most dangerous Flame in the offensive zone.

- Rhett Warrener. See video.

- Chris Simon. Gets back into the line-up and makes a great play to set-up Kobasew for the GWG.

- Powerplay. Goes 3 for 7 on the night. the difference maker.

- Darren McCarty. Scores his second goal of the series and then later blocks a Duck shot with his FACE.

Negatives:

- Penalty-kill. Allows two goals after being perfect in the first 2 games.

- Undisciplined. Have to cut down on the penalties. Ducks have already had 4 5on3 advantages in this series.

- Tony Amonte. Moved up to the first line and looked rather confused. muffed a 2on1 by shooting lamely into the side of the net.

Next up - Game 4!

Round-up Review

I figured I'd go a bit "macro" for a bit and focus on all of the various play-off series going on:

Eastern Conference -

Ottawa vs. Tampa Bay: I didn't see much of the second game of this match-up, though I've heard that T-Bay's stars far outplayed Ottawa's big guns in that particular contest. Im still banking on Ottawa taking this series in 6 however - the duo of Grahame and Burke aren't going to be able to withstand the Senators onslaught in the long run.

Carolina vs. Montreal: I watched the tennis match between these two teams last night from start to finish, and I've come to the conclusion it was the best post-season game played so far (Best = most entertaining). Multiple lead changes, high-tempo, end-to-end action, lots of chances, a couple of overtimes. Hell, even the Carolina fans were worked into a frothing frenzy by all the action. Wicked.

As for the result, I can't say Im terribly surprised that Montreal has jumped out to the early lead. Carolina's blueline (manned by Brett Hedican, Oleg Tverdovsky and bunch of 7th defenseman) is just not strong enough for the post-season. Add in the inexperience of both of their netminders and you have a recipe for disaster. Do I think Montreal will sweep? No. Is Carolina going to win the series? Doubtful.

Buffalo vs. Philly: The only thing that surprises me about this series so far is the lop-sided score in game 2. Aside from that, Philadelphia looks slow, Forsberg looks injured and Esche looks mediocre. Just as I thought they would.

If there's going to be sweep in the first round, it'll happen here.

New Jersey vs. New York: Again, another "no surpises here" for me. The Rangers are just NOT built for the play-offs, especially since they are lacking their most physical defensemen in Kasparaitus. Banking on the likes of Straka, Nylander and Sykora to lead you to the promised land is a plan destined to fail. The odds against a Blue-shirt comeback are even greater considering:

They've lost their MVP in Jagr and

are facing the hottest team in the league which is,

backed by one of the best goalies in the world.

Ouch.

If there's going to be a sweep in the fir...err, see above.

Western Conference -

Detroit vs. Edmonton: Usually, I'd rather have hot pokers applied to sensitive areas below my beltline than admit the Oiler's are playing well...but...

Edmonton has drastically altered their gameplan to a "trap and clog" strategy against the high powered Wings. And it's working. Add in the fact that they are getting some great performances from the likes of Pronger and Roloson (in contrast to the mediocre performances of, say, most of the Detroit team) and you have a potential upset in the making.

While this one's tied up at one a piece, I think Edmonton could easily be out in front at this point. Pretty much 90% of Detroit's goals have been lucky to a large degree. The Red Wing's stars (Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Legace, Lidstrom) have been pretty much bottled up and outplayed by the Oiler's stars thus far. If Detroit can't find a way to turn up the intensity and break through the Oiler-infused neutral zone, they may be looking at their 3rd straight post-season choke session in a row.

Dallas vs. Colorado: This is the series that has surprised me the most. The current version of the Dallas Stars looks NOTHING like the regular season version we saw all year. Their defense is as porous as a sponge and their goaltending is...well...Turco is proving, once again, that he's not a play-off kinda guy.

In contrast, the Av's have been able to maximize their strengths and minimize their weaknesses. Theodore still looks pretty shakey to me, but he's been out-done by his 40+ game-winning counter-part at the other end. If the Stars can't regroup and completely right the ship in Colorado, this could be a shockingly short first round for them.

Calgary vs. Anaheim: The Ducks have thus far proven that they can both skate and hit with the Flames, and the Flames have yet to consistently respond with anything aside from shock. While it's true that the series has been relatively even (5 goals for, 5 goals against, 1 SH goal each, 1-1 split), Anaheim has seemed to have the upper hand to a greater degree so far. The good news for the Flames is that Kipper rarely loses two in a row and Iginla looks like he's playing at peak form once again.

San Jose vs. Nashville: The series of the powerplay goal. Neither team is able to do anything at even strength. Not that that's an issue, since the two clubs seem intent on trading powerplays for each entire contest.

So far, I'd say Joe Thornton has been disappointing, if only based on his point total (2 assists) relative to the torrid pace he set during the regular season. Nashville's stand-in backstopper, Mason, has performed admirably in the first two games, especially considering the post-season melt-downs by some of his more esteemed contemporaries (Turco, Gerber, Esche). On the other hand, it looks like Toskala is determined to make Nabokov a very expensive back-up for the Sharks organization.

Overall, I still stand my San Jose pick - though, really, it looks like this one could go either way.
_____________________________________________

And that's how I've made sense of the maelstrom up to now. Of course, banking on any particular outcome based on an analysis of this rather embryonic play-off season is probably foolish...

but Im nothing if not foolish. And arrogant. And really, really good-looking...

Play-off Pool Picks

It's time for a little self-indulgence.

I recently took part in my first "live draft" hockey pool. Of course, I've played in a lot of online hockey pools in the past - largely free ones against strangers - so Im both a veteran and a rookie at this sort of thing.

The rules governing this one were simple - 7 forwards, 3 defensemen and 2 goalies chosen through the "snake draft" format (1-2-3-3-2-1). Draft position was determined through a random number draw. Goals and assists worth 1 point each, goaltender victores worth 2. Winner take all pot.

I was lucky enough to get the 3rd (out of 8) draft position in this particular pool. The following are my players, listed in the order I drafted them, as well as some of the reasoning behind my choices.

1.) Joe Thornton - Heatley was actually my first choice, but he went #1 overall. While I don't like Big Joe's chances of advancing deep into the play-offs, his Art Ross regular season was hard to ignore (play-off demons or no play-off demons).

2.) Daniel Briere - Some people might be surprised I took Briere so high. Consider, though, that Daniel put up 58 points in just 48 games during the season. Not to mention, his team is playing a Flyers squad backed by Robert Esche that can't kill penalties...and Buffalo had the 2nd best powerplay in the league. His 2 points and 14 shots on net on Saturday night put to rest any worries I had about him.

3.) Niklas Lidstrom - At this point in the draft, some people were starting to take 2nd and 3rd line forwards. I was the first to take a defenseman, but I think it was the right choice. Lidstrom lead the league in terms of points by defensemen during the season and is on the ice pretty much all the time. There's a high probablity that he'll advance deep into the play-offs as well.

4.) Paul Kariya - I know, I know. The selection of Kariya contradicts my Thornton pick. I've basically guaranteed that one of my top 4 will be eliminated from the post-season in the first round. However, the draft was already starting to get thin at this point - and I didn't want to pass on a top minutes type player. Keep in mind, this pick also guarantees that a top forward WILL ADVANCE to the next round.

5.) Teemu Selanne - A lot of people will call me a turn-coat for this pick. Rightfully so...however, Selanne was the only 40 goal scorer left in the draft by the 5th round. Heck, people were starting to select 20 goal scorers and 40 point defensemen by this point. Of course, the reason Selanne lasted this long is because he's matched up against the offensive-nullifying Flames in the first round. My thinking is that he probably still has more of chance to gather some points in the first round relative to some 3rd line, 20 goal man. I guess we'll see.

6.) Jere Lehtinen - I was surprised Lehtinen lasted this long. Jere is playing on the heavily favored Dallas stars and gets lots of ice time because he plays on both the PK and the PP. He was also a 30 goal scorer during the season.

7.) Rod Brind'amour - Rod "the Bod" plays on the offensively-minded Hurricanes. And he plays A LOT. He was in the top 5 in ice-time for forwards during the regular season I believe. His 30 goals certainly don't hurt either.

8.) Tim Connolly - Grabbed Connolly for a lot of the same reasons I picked Briere (because they are playing Philly, basically). Connolly is a fixture on Buffalo's powerplay and manages to pot the odd highlight reeler here and there. Might be a late round steal.

9.) Andrej Meszaros - I used my last 2 picks on defensemen. Unless you are able to snag the odd point per game d-man (like Lidstrom) earlier on, Im of the "dont waste a high pick on a blueliner" school of thought. Especially in a pool that only counts goals and assists. I chose Meszaros because he plays 2nd line PP minutes for the high powered Sens. He'll probably be in the play-offs for awhile and might garner me some assists here and there.

10.) Sandis Ozolinsh. The Draft had thinned out severely by this point. For me, it was between Ozolinsh and JM Liles of the Avalanche. I chose Ozolinsh because I figured neither he nor Liles had much of chance to make it out for the first round...but at least he'd be playing with Jagr on the PP a lot (DOH!).

Goalies were chosen in a seperate draft round. The draft position for each player was kept the same (so I was 3 of 8 again). The first 2 netminders chosen were, of course, Kipper and Brodeur. That meant I had to choose between Turco and Miller (I felt they were the 2 best puck-stoppers left available)...

I chose Turco (despite his history of play-off failure) because I like Dallas' chances. Of course, he promptly sucked-balls in the first game against the Av's. I really, REALLY hope he turns it around.

In contrast, my second goalie choice, Huet (I was stunned he was still available when the draft came back around to me - other people were picking back-ups at this point) looked like a world beater in his first match. Yes it contradicts my Brind'amour pick, but getting any starting goaltender this late was a bonus.

That's about it. So far a couple of my picks have performed well (Briere, Connolly, Kariya, Huet) some average (Thornton, Selanne) and some not-so-well (Lidstrom, Lehtinen, Brindamor, Turco). Im hoping characters like Lidstrom and Lehtinen will be in play-offs long enough to turn it around and start garnering some better point totals in the long run...

PS - any comments, complaints, questions or critiques of my draft strategy (for next time) would be appreciated.

Flames vs. Ducks - Game Two Review

Im hoping the Flames played a rousing round of "Frontal Lobe Lobotomy" before the yesterday's contest. It's the only way to explain the blatant stupidity that seemed to infect the entire roster.

Short-handed break-aways and 2on1's aplenty. neutral zone give-aways, ill-conceived pinches and bobbled passes.

Yes, it was a veritable litany of defensive blunders. Compounded by a first period that included preciesly zero offensive-zone pressure, Calgary's frequent brain-cramps proved to be insurmountable in the end. Against any NHL team, let alone a Ducks squad boasting some decent offensive threats, the Flame's baffling penchant for error would have proven disasterous. It certainly didn't help that 3 of the Quackers first 5 shots went in the net. Not that Kipper can rightly be faulted for any of the goals against. While his teammates didn't give up a lot of shots, those rare chances that were yielded were often of the "silver-platter" type.

To be fair, the Flames nearly turned a disaster into a feel-good special. In a way, Calgary played one half of a really good game. Unfortunately, the hole they decided to dig en route to turning it around mid-way through the second frame was a little too deep. One has to hope that the second half Flames squad from last night, sans Phaneuf pinch, will show up tomorrow night and turn this whole mess around...

Positives:

- Jarome Iginla. Two periods of dominant hockey. Cued the comeback with a SH goal.

- Kristian Huselius. Continues to be a significant offensive zone presence. Scores one of the fanciest goals by a guy wearing a Flames sweater all year.

- Mike Leclerc. I was a little skeptical about Leclerc's insertion into the line-up...however, he proved to be one of the best forwards along the wall in the offensive zone all night.

- Powerplay. While still not overwhelming, did managed to score twice on 12 opportunities.

- Penalty-kill. 6 for 6. Still perfect in the series.

Negatives:

- Dion Phaneuf. The rookie is struggling out there. Two incredibly bad decisions lead to Duck goals #1 and 4. Needs to figure it out or sit on the bench.

- Roman Hamrlik. Minus 4 on the night. Unfortunately for Roman, he was frequently victimized by other player's mistakes last night. Observe:

First goal: Amonte fails to clear the puck and Dion knocks a floating point shot onto Kunitz's stick in the slot.

Second goal: Hamrlik sneaks in from the point and Lombardi covers his position. The puck squirts back to Lombo who promptly gives it up to Niedermayer who scores on the ensuing break-away.

Third Goal: Warrener pinches and sets up Kobasew in the slot. Chucky fans on the shot and the puck goes back to Craig Mcdonald on the point. Mcdonald makes what looks like a soft, outlet pass to Selanne who quickly sets up Lupul on the resultant 2on1 (vs Hammer).

Fourth Goal: The Phaneuf pinch.

Then again, he's still -4.

- Matthew Lombardi. Also -4, and at least one of the goals was directly attributal to him.

- Chuck Kobasew. Skates around a lot but doesn't seem to execute anything in particular.
- Tony Amonte. The only time I noticed Amonte last night was when he decided to miss Roman's clearing pass on the first Anaheim goal.

I will grudgingly admit that the Ducks have played very well in the last 2 games. I can take some minute level of comfort in that it's not ALL Calgary playing badly - their opponent has thus far been a worthy one. It's pretty clear that the Flames will have to elevate their play (and cut down on the pre-game lobotomy stuff) if they want to make it out of this first round.

Flames vs. Ducks - Game One Review

I'd be lying if I said I was satisfied with last night's game (beyond the fact that Calgary managed to claim the 1-0 series lead).

It seems that Carlyle, damn his hide, has taken Sutter's gameplan, copied it and applied it to his team. As a Flames fan, Im completely unused to the opposition employing a physical, high pressure forecheck against us. Especially as well as Anaheim managed last night. In short, the Flames got a taste of their own medicine. And it was cross-bar away from being a bitter, bitter pill.

Aside from the first 10 minutes of the contest, Calgary was consistently beat to the puck all over the ice. Puck possession in the Duck's end was often tenuous at best, while races to the puck in Calgary territory were almost invariably won by an Anaheim player. Aside from the odd bright spark - Amonte and Kipper - it was a pretty frustrating game to watch from a Flmes Fan's perspective.

Is there anything worth taking out of this game? Sure. The Ducks played really well, Calgary played pretty average, and the Flames still won. The Ducks had a decent amount of shots and scoring chances, but their only tally was a realtively lucky double-deflection. Special Nieds looked pretty human last night, especially in his own end. He had numerous give-aways that lead to several Flame's scoring chances. Keep it up Scott!

Anyways, I think Calgary's going to have to turn the tables as quickly as possible. I dont think they can continue to be outplayed at their own game and expect to have much success. On Sunday, I fully expect to see more Ducks splattered behind their own net and less Flame's players standing around, confused and seemingly trapped, in front of Kiprusoff.

Positives:

- The vets deliver. Two guys who didn't score a lot in the regular season step-up big time. Kudos Bones and McCarty.

- Miika Kiprusoff. Steals another victory.

- Jarome Iginla. While not overly dangerous most of the night, looked fast, intense and mean. Assisted on Amonte's goal.

- Kristian Huselius. Great pass to McCarty for the game winner.

- Penalty-kill. Stuffed all 5 Anaheim chances, including two 5on3's.

Negatives:

- Chuck Kobasew. Didn't do much aside from get clobbered by Vishnevski all night.

- Powerplay. Simply abysmal. Flames forwards counldn't seem to control the puck while the defensemen couldn't seem to get a shot on net. Im looking at you, Dion.

- Puck possession. Calgary was beaten to the puck, at both ends of the rink, most of the night.

- Officiating. Okay, it was actually pretty decent overall. However, how does Jarome get a penalty for being punched in the face? And if that Niedermayer arm-bar take down on Langkow in overtime isn't obstruction, then I dont know what is.

Next up - Game 2!

Sweet, Sweet Anticipation

Yes it's finally here.

Game 1, series 1. Play-offs.

Im experiencing a curious mix of excitement and anxiety. I think I kinda feel like a virgin on prom night - I know it's gonna be good, I just don't know how long it's gonna last.

On that note, let's set up the series:

Calgary:

- Mean, high-tempo forecheck, stingy defense, decent (top ten) special teams.
- Calgary depends on: Kiprusoff, Iginla, Regehr, Phaneuf.
- Calgary will have to:
1.) Get timely goals and secondary scoring.
2.) Shut down the Mcdonald, Selanne and Kunitz line.
3.) Exploit Anaheim's inexperience
4.) Play Disciplined and stay out of the box.

Anaheim:

- Fast, agile and shifty forwards, explosive offensive abilities, decent (top ten) special teams.
- Anaheim depends on: Niedermayer, Giguere, Selanne, Mcdonald.
- Anaheim will have to:
1.) Find a way to solve Flame's defense and Kiprusoff regularly.
2.) Overcome Calgary's dominant home record.
3.) Goad Calgary into taking a lot of penalties.
4.) Match Calgary's intensity and tenacity through-out the series.

I was tempted to list and compare a lot of stats, but I've decided not to. Partially because you've probably seen and heard it all already. And partially because, in a few days time, the regular season means precisely diddly-squat.

As for tonight, I think the electric atmostphere in the 'Dome will spur the Flames to victory. Keep your eyes on Jarome - an inspired performance by Captain Calgary will probably be a fine indicator of the Flame's future fortunes in this series...

GO FLAMES GO!!

Eastern Conference Predictions...

Given that I dont see as much Eastern Conference hockey (aside from the now irrelevant Toronto Maple Leafs) as Western Conference stuff, my picks for the NHL's "other half" are less based on fact and more based on gut feeling and stat-perusing.

With that in mind, enjoy!

Ottawa (1) vs Tampa Bay (8)

It's going to be a rough go for the defending champs, methinks. While it looks like they won't have to be facing Hasek in the first round, the Lightning will have their hands full worrying about their own suspect goaltending. In the absence of the 'Bulin Wall, neither Grahame nor Burke managed a save percentage above .900. With that in net and against a high powered Senators offense, I can't see T-Bay lasting long - even if players like Kubina and St. Louis suddenly re-discover their 03/04 form.

Prediction: Ottawa in 5.

Carolina vs Montreal

It's hard for me to decide one way or the other when it comes to this series. I didn't get to see the Hurricanes play AT ALL this year, so I can't really speak to their legitimacy as a top seed. In contrast, the Habs went through numerous see-saw phases all year. To date, they haven't even decided who their #1 goalie is.

On the one hand, Carolina has been relatively weak down the stretch, have an untested 'tender (in terms of the post-season) and a rather thin blueline. Late season acquisitions Recchi and Weight have failed to fill the gap left by the injured Eric Cole as well.

On the other hand, the Canadiens have two relatively untested goalies and some underperforming forwards (Koivu, Ribeiro, Ryder), but a stronger blueline with Rivet, Souray and Markov. If Staal rediscovers his scoring touch from the first half, then expect a Carolina win. If not, Huet will have to outperform Gerber. Also...

...ahh forget it. Toss a coin.

Prediction: Montreal in 7

New Jersey vs New York

Talk about a last minute reversal. For most of the season, it was the Rangers with the upper hand, standings wise. However, thanks to some stumbling down the stretch plus the Devil's 11 game winning streak to end the season, the Big Apple Jagrs are suddenly the underdogs.

While New York enjoyed a revival of sorts over the course of the regular season, I can't see them moving past the Brodeur backed Devils in the first round. The Rangers are populated by a lot of softies (Nylander, Straka, Ozolinsh) who will most likely disappear if the going gets rough. And, as good as Lundqvist was in his rookie year, I still bet on Brodeur out-duelling him this post-season. Add in the fact that Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez and Patrick Elias are red-hot right now and it looks like the it's gonna be hell for the blueshirts...

Prediction: New Jersey in 6

Buffalo vs Philadelphia

Another head-scratcher. Is Buffalo for real this year? Will Forsberg stay healthy? Can Robert Esche actually stop a puck?

I'm gonna say "yes", "no", "no".

The quick and shifty Buffalo forwards match-up well with the lumbering behemoths on the Philadelphia blueline. And, while Miller may be a rookie, Im still willing to bet he's a superior netminder to Esche. Gagne or no Gagne, Philly's injury woes and lack of consistent goaltending will get the best of them.

Prediction: Buffalo in 6

As mentioned in the intro, Im not as informed or confident about these picks as I'd like to be - so any wagers placed according to the above predictions are by no means my responsibility.

Unless, of course, you win. Then I expect a cut.

Flames - A Year in Review

I figured a regular season wrap-up was in order before the inevitable Calgary/Anaheim play-off preview. So, without further foreplay...

The 05/06 Calgary Flames:

Offense - C

The Flames ended the season with 216 goals for, good for a 2.63 goal/game average and 27th in the league. While this will inspire neither songs nor poems, keep in mind the Flames did manage to increase their goals for by 16 over their 03/04 selves. However, thanks to the increase in powerplays and decrease in goaltender equipment, the Flame's increase in scoring didn't match the league-wide increase. In fact, while Calgary only scored 200 goals last season, they were ranked 19th overall in the league in that respect, a full 8 positions ahead of this season's ranking.

So did we take a step back or step forward? Comparisons between the two clubs suggests it was probably more of a lateral move, if anything at all. Take, for instance, the fact that the 05/06 Flames roster boasted five 20 goal scorers (Iginla, Langkow, Huselius, Kobasew, Phaneuf) as opposed to 1(!) (Iginla) in 03/04. It should also be noted, however, that there were only an additional 3 Flames this year who cracked the 10 goal mark (Leclerc, Amonte, Lundmark) and two of them were late additions to the roster who just barely managed the feat (L&L). In contrast, prior season's roster had eight 10+ goal-getters. So, while the Flames had more 20 goal scorers this season, their number of 10 goal scorers as compared to last year actually decreased nominally (8 vs. 9). It doesn't help that players like Simon, Donovan and Lombardi (thanks to underachievement or injury) fell well short of last year's numbers. Not to mention Jarome Iginla's average season. While his total of 35 is only 6 behind his pace from last season, one should consider the fact that 41 was enough to garner the Rocket Richard previously- whereas 55 goals was tops in the league this time around. Meaning a Calgary squad with a "peak" Jarome this season probably would have been closer to 236 goals for (around 21st in the league). While that doesn't sound terribly impressive, imagine how many more wins could have been gleaned by the Flame's stingy defense with the infusion of an extra goal here or there...

On the back-end, the Flames had one of their best seasons (offensively speaking) in a long time. Lead by The Dion (20 goals, 29 assists), the Flames also got relatively decent contributions from Andrew Ference (4 goals, 27 assists), Robyn Regehr (6 goals, 20 assists) and Roman Hamrlik (7 goals, 19 assists in 51 games). Even with Leopold's collosal step backwards in the "offense" department (2 goals, 18 assists), this year's Flames gathered a total of 43 goals from their blueline brigade as opposed to the 26 scored by the 03/04 d-corps. So what's with the increase? Look no further than this season's ballooning in powerplays + the injection of Hamrlik and Phaneuf into the line-up. While Leo's point totals were hurt thanks to his 1.) bad luck and extensive drought and 2.) demotion to the 2nd PP unit, other players, like Ference, had their point totals boosted by the two aforementioned factors (Andrew spent a portion of the season feeding Phaneuf on the PP while Hammer was sidelined by one of his various injuries). Looking ahead, Flames fans should be excited to see what a more mature Phaneuf and a less injured Hamrlik can accomplish next year...

Defense - B+

Calgary's top 6 defensemen is an impressive group:

Regehr - Leopold
Phaneuf - Hamrlik
Warrener - Ference
(Marchment - Hulse)

Calgary has 3 Olympians in Leo, Regehr and Hammer and one of the most impressive young defensemen to come along in a long time in Phaneuf. Rhett Warrener is a rugged veteran of 3 stanely cup finals and a former team captain. Ference, though prone to the occassional mental lapse, is highly versatile, agile and mean. In a world of sixth defensemen that includes Cory Cross and Chris Therien, Ference fills his roll adequately.

So why only a B+ on the season? Partially because the Flames almost never played with their entire "top 6" intact. Thanks to an almost constant stream of injuries, Regehr, Hamrlik, Warrener and Leopold all spent generous amonts of time on the shelf. While many of Calgary's 7th and 8th d-men filled in as well as can be expected (or more so, considering Mush's +8 stat), the Flames were only 100% probably 1/5th of the season. It's remarkable, actually, that the grade isn't lower.

Naturally, I can't go on without mentioning my favorite target, Andrew Ference. Yes, I just complimented him. And yes, he's a very decent 6th defensemen. Unfortunately, though, Ference suffered through a maddeningly inconsistent season. He would go through stretches of near perfect defensive-zone responsibility only to play a game filled with brains farts and peewee quality gaffes. While he enjoyed a career year points wise, his -12 rating is a full 17 behind his +5 rating from last season. The 2nd lowest +/- stat on the Flames, in terms of defensemen, was Dion Phaneuf's +5.

Of course, the +/- stat has to be interpretated with caution. However, in light of the fact that Ference was considerably worse than his last year self and all of his brethren this season, the conclusion is obvious. Im hoping that Ference's decision-making abilities catch-up to his physical abilities next season (and in the play-offs!) so that he can get back on the good side of the ledger.

After that, the Flames ranged from "good" to "stellar" most of the time. Regehr continued to develop into the steady, hard-nosed presence we've come to expect. Leopold, while a disappointment points wise, often lead the team in ice-time and frequently looked like a #1 defensemen in his own end. He also lead the team in +/- at one point during the year. Warrener and Hamrlik, when they were in the line-up, were both typically stalwarts on the back-end. Warrener, in particular, could be counted on to deliver a game-changing hit once in awhile.

And then there's Phaneuf. While he was still prone to the odd rookie error here and there, I was immeasurably impressed with The Dion in his own end this year. Not only did he become one of the more feared open-ice hitters in the league, he also managed to remain poised and decisive in situations where a lot of rookies (and some veterans) would become rattled. he's incredibly strong on his skates, tough to move off the puck and just plain nasty to opposing players trying to carry the biscuit over his blueline. Ahhhh...the future is bright.

Goaltending - Gradeless

What more can be said about Miika Kiprusoff? Top 5 in just about every significant goaltending category, Kipper is considered to be the runaway favorite for the Vezina this year. All the compliments heaped upon him are deserved - consider, for instance, that the last time anyone scored more than 3 goals on Kipper was during the Flames 4-3 OT loss to Vancouver at the beginning of January. And the Canucks needed overtime AND a bevy of powerplays to do it! He captured a number of Flames Franchise records this year, including most wins in a season, most shut-outs in a season and longest shut-out streak. He strikes fear into the hearts of our enemies and is the single biggest reason the Flames are where they are...I couldn't be happier with our #1 goaltender and wouldn't trade him for anyone in the league.

Of course, Calgary's back-up's struggled to live up to the "Kipper Show" all season. Sauve was vicitmized by Colorado for 7 goals before he was run out of town in favor of Brian Boucher. Unfortunately, Boucher promptly let 9 in against Nashville, further increasing the importance of Miika to the Flame's fortunes. Next season, I figure Sutter will jettison Boucher and allow Krahn a shot at the big time...

Overall - B+

Calgary enjoyed one of the best seasons in Franchise history. 103 points and first in one of the most competitive divisions in hockey. A Vezina candidate, a Calder candidate and the Jennings trophy.

While the offense still isn't where many would like it to be, many of the pieces are beginning to fall into place for the Flames. Pushed inexorably forward by the iron will of Darryl Sutter, and riding on the shoulders of Kipper, Phanuef, Regehr and Iginla, Flames fans can probably look forward to years of competitive play to come.

Now let's get it done in the play-offs boys!

Upon Closer Inspection...

I was taking a look at the Colorado/Edmonton stats from last night's contest and have concluded that:

1.) The entire Colorado roster was hung over or ill during the game, or
2.) They took a dive.

Take a look. The Av's managed all of 1 hit all night long! One! Now I know it's a pretty subjective interpretation when it comes to recording hits, but...the Oiler's managed 11 in contrast.

Further, Colorado managed to generate all of 18 shots on Ty Conklin over the course of the evening. Six during the 3rd period when they were behind. In addition, I watched a bit of the game last night and the Avs looked pretty blase overall.

So does this mean Colorado would rather face Dallas than the Flames in the first round? Looks like it to me. It remains to be seen whether that was a good decision on the part of the Avs or not, however (I think not).

So...should the Flames take this as a compliment...or just Kipper?

Western Play-off Preview...

With the season basically over and the Western Conference standings firmly established, I figured a "play-off round 1 preview" was in order. Here are the western match-ups and how I see them playing out:

Detroit (1) vs Edmonton (8):

As much as I admire our Northern rivals for finally sewing up that last play-off spot ahead of Vancouver, I can't say I like their chances in this series. The Red Wings finished nearly a full 30 points ahead of the Oilers and were easily the best team in the league during the second half of the year. Statistically speaking, the Red Wings are the superior club pretty much across the board. However, one should keep in mind that these two teams split the season series, 2-2.

Prediction: Red Wings in 6

Dallas (2) vs Colorado (7):

Im personally rather fearful of the Dallas Stars (thanks to their consistant domination over the Flames the last couple of seasons) so naturally I consider them to be favorites in this series. That, and they had 16 more points than the Avalanche. Oh, and they have more depth on the blueline, a comparable set of skilled forwards, a Selke nominee with 33 goals and a superior goalie. Advantage: Dallas.

Prediction: Dallas in 7

Calgary (3) vs Anaheim (6):

As mentioned in yesterday's post, I like this match-up for the Flames. Anaheim's thin blueline after Neidermayer and relative lack of experience at forward should give Calgary the advantage. A longer, more in-depth analysis of this series will be forth-coming...

Prediction: Calgary in 7

Nashville (4) vs San Jose (5):

Hard to say if Nashville should be counted out now that their secondary puckstopper, Mason, is starting to a lot like their primary puckstopper, Vokoun. It's also hard to say if Cheechoo and Thornton will carry their "dynamic duo" act into the post-season. However, should Nasvhille continue to be one of the most penalized teams in the league, I can see the Sharks PP featuring Thornton, Cheechoo and Marleau having a field day.

Prediction: San Jose in 6

Next up...Calgary vs. Anaheim analysis + Eastern Conference Preview!

Every Ending is the Start of Something New

Flames versus the Ducks tonight in a potential first round preview - to a certain extent anyways. One has to think that both teams will be resting some of their major contributors with the post-season fast approaching. Expect to see both back-ups in net as well as characters like Neidermayer out of the line-up. On the Flame's side, I wouldn't be shocked if some of the walking wounded, like Warrener and McCarty, were to draw a press-box seat this evening. Also, Sutter may decide to give younger guys like Lombo, Lundmark and Ritchie some added ice-time and responsibility tonight as well. fueling a depth player's development is probably more important than the "W" at this point.

As for the ensuing madness that is the hunt for the Stanley Cup, Calgary will either be playing Anaheim or Colorado in the first bracket. The Flame's gathered 10 of a possible 16 points from Colorado this year, which is a positive, but also suffered two of their worst defeats at the hands of the Avs....

As for the Ducks, the series is currently weighted 2-1 in the Flames favor (prior to tonight). Anaheim is suddenly mired in a 3 game losing streak after being one of the hottest teams in the NHL since the Olympic break. To be fair, two of their 3 recent losses were against other extremely hot teams as well (San Jose, Calgary).

So who should we, as Calgary fans, hope to play in the first round? I am personally leaning towards Anaheim. While they have been playing some impressive hockey lately on the backs of Selanne, Mcdonald and Niedermayer, I think they're lack of depth on the blueline and lack of experience overall will probably hinder their chances.

Consider that, after Niedermayer, the Ducks have Francois Beauchemin, Sean O' Donnell, Vitaly Vishnevski, Ruslan Salei and Joe DiPenta. Hardly a formidable group.

Up front, the Ducks are young. Very young (aside from Selanne, of course). Guys like Lupul, Getzlaf, Kunitz and Perry will be seeing their first play-off series. Will these rookies be able to match Calgary's forechecking and intensity in the post-season? Possibly, but doubtful.

Of course, a preference between foes may all come down to goaltending. Anaheim's JS Giguere has posted some decent numbers this year (29 wins, 2.65 GAA) while Colorado's Jose Theodore has had a season to forget (18 wins, 3.42 GAA). Unfortunately, there are threats either way for Flames fans...

Im sure no one forgets Giguere's miraculous run to the finals with the Ducks a couple of years ago...should he somehow manage to regain that form, the Flames may find themselves facing another Kiprusoff. In contrast, Theodore has (in the past) stolen play-off rounds by himself and is a former Hart trophy recipient. In fact, Colorado acquired Jose with the hope that the change of scenary would help him become the tender he once was.

So, either way, Calgary could come across some hot goaltending. Of course, there is the equal-to-greater possibility that neither Giguere nor Theodore will become the world beaters they once were (and what Kipper now is).

Overall, Im still inclined to prefer Anaheim by a hair. If we can avoid seeing Sakic in the post-season, it's probably a good thing. I must confess, however, that neither team overly concerns me. The Flames have proven that they can beat both. Plus, with our savior Kiprusoff in net, what could there be to worry about?

The Kings are Dead...Long Live the Kings!

The cheeky title above refers both to the demise of this evenings opponents play-off hopes as well as to Calgary's ascension to the NW Division throne (captured Thursday night in the victory over Colorado).

I was unable to follow the proceedings on Thursday, owing to a total lack of PPV capapbilities. There were, however, three things that immediately jumped out at me when I observed the scoresheet later:

- The win, of course. Clinch the division title in style.

- Kipper's 2nd straight shut-out and 10th of the year. Seriously...what are they feeding this guy?

- Dion Phaneuf scores his 20th of the year. Becomes the 5th 20 goal man on the Flames and only the 3rd rookie defenseman to ever record 20 or more tallies. Not only that, the Dion now leads the league (in terms of defensemen) in game winning goals and powerplay goals. His goal total is also only one away from Mathieu Schneider's league-leading 21. Astonishing.

So, with the play-offs in sight and the division locked up, the Flames have precious little left to play for in their final two games. The only other possible motivator for the troups may be the hunt for the Jennings trophy...which they currently lead by a suprisingly wide margin. One figures that as long as Boucher doesn't have another "Nashville Night" in one of the final two games, Calgary will most likely be adding the Jennings to their rather impressive list of accomplishments from this season. Kudos Boys!

And finally, I simply can't end this post without dancing on the grave of the Canuck's play-off aspirations. HA-HA! Good on Edmonton for beating Anaheim on Thursday night and removing all doubt. While it's not terribly probable, the mere possibility of a post-season Battle of Alberta makes the coming play-offs that much more interesting...

What's the Point...?

I'm going to forgo a Flame's game preview post for now. Instead, it's "criticize the murky editorial" time.

In his rant/column on tsn.ca (ironically dubbed "To the Point") Dave Hodge takes issue with the manner in which the league handles it's video reviews ("NHL Expects Too Much of Replays").

I think.

His column is so filled with passive-aggressive finger-pointing and non-essential issues that I can't really tell what his complaints actually are. Not to mention that he doesn't offer any kind of insight or solution into the problem.

read it here.

He starts the piece with the very real possibility that the Edmonton Oiler's may lose out on a play-off spot thanks to the goal that was missed (due to a faulty video review) versus the Wild a few games back. Of course, had the goal counted, there is literally no way for anyone to know for certain that the Oilers would have won the contest anyways. It simply increases the probability that Edmonton would have won.

That said, Edmonton does have somthing to complain about - the NHL clearly blew the call. The Toronto office didn't get the correct angle before play resumed. Okay. Im with Hodge up to this point in his column.

It's in the next area where he loses me:"...the NHL tries too hard to make the right call."

Wha...? Too hard? This is your complaint in light of the Edmonton situation? Would Hodge prefer they handle it even more ineptly in the future?

In the next paragraph, rather than properly clarify what he means by the above cryptic remark, Hodge instead lists a number of parallel, but laregly non-essential issues:

"if it takes too long, fans boo, and when it doesn't take long enough, it get's criticized."

While I understand that hockey is entertainment industry, on this issue the fan's reaction is absolutely unimportant. The absolute value of video review is based on if it results in true decisions. Who cares if the fans boo for 5 minutes? Further, what is Hodge's definition, therefore, of the "proper" length of time for a review?

"it makes on ice officials subserviant to replay officials..."

this overly long sentence points out that the video review process may be too convoluted. Sort of. His implication that it's "bad" that on ice officials must defer to replay officials upstairs is baffling. So what? The reason this happens is because the on ice refs didn't have the ability or tools to confidently make the proper call. Why is this a bad thing? Also, his jab aimed at the Toronto office at the end ("..might oversee Casinos in it's spare time...") is somewhat confusing. Is he saying there's too many reviews for the Toronto office to handle? What's his solution to it then...?

Dave's next statement is another below-the-belt shot. Not too mention completely useless in terms of the issue at hand:

"This is the same league that used to ask video review to determine if a skate blade was in the goal crease..."

Ummm, that rule was overturned. For good reason. The league doesn't do that anymore. Now we've gone from deriding a missed goal to bringing up defunct rules. Can you say "ad hominem arguement"? Though what he's arguing for and against are still pretty foggy...

The conclusion does little to clarify:

"Reviews can do as much harm as good if done improperly..."

I love how this is just thrown in as some sort of self-evident truth. More harm than good? Really? How so Dave? In Edmonton's case, for example, Im fairly certain that the officials would never have been able to properly determine if the puck had crossed the line on their own. At the most, the botched review in question did no more harm than would have occured without it.

"the NHL has lost sight of their (video reviews) resonable worth by expecting them to do too much, and by not relying on its own human resources."

HUH? What is a review's "worth" then and what would you define as "resonable"? How is it that the NHL expects them to "do too much" when a play is only reviewed when the on-ice official's decision is unclear? Is Hodge's solution, ambiguously hinted at in the final statement, to abolish reviews altogether and give refs 100% decision-making power? Because, as previously mentioned, that hardly fixes the problem. Or, Perhaps Hodge thinks there should be monitors in the penalty box? Or, Should the NHL out-source video reviews to a third party??

In short...WHAT THE HELL DOES HE WANT?

*shudder* Talk about third-rate journalism. In not exactly a moron, but by the end of Dave's rant, I have almost no idea what he's talking about.

And I doubt that anyone else out there really does either...(please let me know if you do!)