Chasing Gomez

Time for some (non-erotic) fantasizing...

So everyone knows the New Jersey Devils are in cap trouble. And I mean BIG TIME cap trouble. According to tsn, their current signed roster looks like:

- Elias - 7.5
- Brodeur - 5.2
- Rafalski - 4.2
- Madden - 3.893
- Malakhov - 3.6
- Mogiliny - 3.5
- White - 3
- Langenbrunner - 2.8
- McGillis - 2.2
- Brylin - 1.52
- Matvichuk - 1.368
- Lukowich - 1
- Wiemer - .950
- 5 guys ranging from .836 - .450
-----------------------------------------
Total - $43.93 million

Notable RFA's left to sign: Scott Gomez (30 goals, 80 points last season) and Brian Gionta (48 goals, 90 points last season).

Ouch. I can't fathom how galling it must be for ol' Lou to have those $7 million anchors, Malakhov and Mogilny, dragging down the payroll. Talk about learning a lesson the hard way.

Anyways, I digress. Assuming tsn's numbers are completely correct (which usually they aren't, but let's pretend) what we have here is a team that:

1.) Has (once they re-sign him) a young, skilled center with "Gretzky-like vision" who has to play with "skilled linemates to be effective". And...
2.) A desperate need to dump salary.

Hmmm. Seems like a fit to me. Granted, Gomez has been on Flames fan's wishlists for a long time - his swift skating and passing abilities make him a natural fit to center Iginla. Of course, New Jersey has had little reason to trade him.

Until now.

Already bumping against the cap ceiling, the Devils have approximately $6-7 million/year in potential contracts for RFA's Gomez and Gionta . If not more. Considering the kind of stats both players put up in 05/06, $6 million combined for each is a conservative estimate.

So what is a Lou to do?

He can't get rid of the Mogilny or Malakhov abortions. He's stuck with them. Nor can he trade Brodeur - the Devils don't have another starter waiting in the wings. The lumbering dinosaur of a contract he gave to Elias dissaudes any deals there. And he'd have to get rid of a lot of Wiemers, Brylins and Lukowichs to make any sort of significant dent in the payroll.

Here's my suggestion (ie fantasy):

Trade Rafalski to Edmonton for a much cheaper blueliner (MA Bergeron?) and some prospects/picks. Edmonton has a lot of cap space, a desperate need for a top minute d-man and bunch of "potentials" garnered from the Pronger trade. The move gets him a 14 goal scorer on the blueline, some future assets and frees up more than $3 million in cap space (Rafalski's 4.2 - Bergeron's .969).

Next, sign Gomez to something like a $4 million/year contract and trade him to...wait for it...CALGARY for Mat. Lombardi+prospect/picks. This way, Lou gets back a CHEAP, young, offensive center who can play at the NHL level right away, more future assets and conserves most of the space he created by dumping Rafalski...which, of course, would leave him with enough room to re-sign Gionta at the $3 million/year he'll be asking for. Or near enough, at least. Another minor move - say dealing someone like a Sergei Brylin to Washington for a 3rd rounder - would probably need to happen to make this scenario at all workable. But, hey, it's possible right? Right??

So does this actually work from a Calgary Flames perspective? Let's see...

The acquisition of Gomez would give Calgary a fairly formidable group of top 6 forwards:
Tanguay - Gomez - Iginla
Huselius - Langkow - Kobasew

Drool-inducing, no? Especially for offense-starved Flames fans.

In addition, this kind of move would help de-clutter all the "young potential 2nd/3rd line centers" in the Flame's cupboard. With Langkow, Lundmark and Lombardi already in the NHL and prospects Boyd, Seitsonen, Ryder and the recently signed Russian Olympian Andrei Tarathukin in the system (plus the 4+ centers Calgary drafted this summer), the team is quickly heading towards a big ol' cluster-eff-log-jam down the middle.

As far as cap issues go, a $4 million/year Gomez would probably push the Flames to the limit. The fantasy gets (even more) unlikely at this point without dumping some salary - say a Rhett Warrener or Roman Hamrlik for a draft pick or two.

Probable? No. Sutter loves his defensive depth. I think he literally lies awake in the middle of the night, sweating and anxious, at the thought of having the likes of Mark Giordano patrolling the blueline on a regular basis.

To make the fantasy even more convoluted, I may as well ask if it would be worth giving up a Hamrlik (and Lombardi) for a Gomez. Would it? Would the potential for an injection of 70-80 points and a more diversified offensive attack off-set the effects of having a greater amount of quality shots and chances (and thus, more goals) against?

I can honestly say "yes", with the confidence of man that cheers for a team that has the best goaltender in hockey. Probably above and beyond anyone else in the league, the Flames could stand to take a few more risks, in terms of defensive personnel, without suffering dire consequences. The resualtant equation looks like:

(Kipper in net+Gomez out front+young defenseman on the back-end) - (Lombardi+future assets+Hamrlik) = net gain in goal differential.

By my math at least. Not that I was ever that great at math.

Anyways, that's my fantasy. Knowing that there are tons of GM's looking at the NJ situation and spinning out similar scenario's in their heads pretty much assures that something like this won't actually happen (for Calgary). And, like my earlier Elias musings, I don't really think this has much grounding in reality.

Sure is fun to consider though.