The Hockey Pool Post

It's the most wonderful time of the year - the start of hockey season and, therefore, hockey pools!

This season's Five Hole Fanatics pool was set-up by Chunky Moose and Alex. The rules governing the draft and points were established as follows:

- Live draft format.
- Teams will consist of 10 forwards, 4 defensemen and 1 goalie. Goalies will be drafted seperately from skaters.
- 1 "darkhorse" selection per player. The DH will be submitted anonymously at the conclusion of the draft and cannot be a goalie. Any matching darkhorses are disqualified.

- Point System:

Skaters points -

- Goal: 2 points
- Assist: 1 point
- OT goal: +1 (bonus)

Goalie points -

- Goalie Win: 1 point
- Team Win: 1 point
- Shut-out: +2 points (bonus)
- Assist: 2 points
- Goal: 8 points

- Four trades allowed during the season. Only players on the "free agent" list are open for selection.

This was my first draft with a "darkhorse" choice and I've concluded that I like it. The challenge of choosing a decent player, while at the same time trying to avoid selecting the same guy as someone else, spices things up a little turns the end of the draft into something of a poker match.

(click to enlarge)

The draft took place this weekend. Above are the 12 "GM's" (including all 5 Five Hole Fanatics contributors), their teams and the order in which the players were selected. Altogether, 168 skaters were drafted, plus 12 goalies and 12 darkhorses. Dany Healtey went #1 overall and Pittsburgh d-man Ryan Whitney was the last guy taken at #168. The draft was done in sections and took all bloody weekend. The darkhorse picks were sent in and finalized yesterday.

Points of interest:

- Khabibulin was selected despite his terrible season last year AND the fact that 'tender's accrue points based on wins (both by them and by the team as a whole). Hmmm...does GM Krahn know something I don't?

- Iginla was the top Flame to be selected at #9 although Tanguay wasn't far behind at #18. Phaneuf was the first defensemen to be taken at #30. Altogether, 10 Calgary players were drafted - Iginla, Tanguay, Phaneuf, Lombardi, Huselius, Hamrlik, Regehr, A. Ference, Langkow and Kipper.

- Kiprusoff was snagged first in the goalie draft, of course. Ryan Miller was the surprise second choice, followed by Brodeur. I selected Vokoun with the 8th pick. The fact that Nashville will play the likes of Chicago, St. Louis and Columbus all year forced my hand.

- The average age of the oldest team selected: 34.31 (Thomsen).

- The team with the most Canadians: 12 of 16 (Tyler).

- Players that went undrafted: Modin, Brunette, JP Dumont, PM Bouchard, Bulis.

- On a "You can't make this kind of shit up" note - Alex Hemsky was the first Oiler selected at pick #44(!).

My team and Strategy:

Seeing as goals are worth double that of assists, I made sure to tab goal getters and top powerplay guys in my draft. Although I was stuck in the 8th position, I still managed to grab Kovalchuk as my first selection. My rationale? Kovalchuk's goal totals have been steadily increasing since he broke into the NHL (29, 38, 41 and 52) meaning he's in line for a pretty massive season. It also helps that he's deadly on the PP.

Another strategy I employed this year was "linking" linemates: by grabbing a decent offensive line, goals can often be worth 3 points (goal+assist) rather than just 2 (goal). Thus my Hossa pick - not only is he a first unit PP linemate of my first round selection, he's also a pretty damn consistent point-getter (he hasn't had less than 30 goals in the last 5 seasons). Should be a pretty lethal combination. Some other linked (potential) linemates on my team include Briere, Afinogenov and Kotalik. Basically, I wanted to get a healthy piece what I think will be a deadly Sabre PP.

As you can see, I chose 3 of my 4 d-men in the final rounds. Unless you're talking about Lidstrom or Niedermayer, I find it prudent to select blueliners at the end of the draft; why waste a mid-round pick on a 45 point getter when you could be taking a 70 point forward? Especially since there are typically a lot of 40 point d-men remaing in the end. As for my selections, I think Redden has the capacity to bag a 60+ point season as the #1 guy in Ottawa (thus my making an exception for him and taking him in round 5). I picked up Beauchemin because I believe (hope?) he'll get some significant PP time with Anaheim, even with Pronger in the mix. I picked up Campbell because he'll be spending time on the Sabres top PP unit and I chose Van Ryn because he's quietly scored 22 goals for Florida the last 2 seasons. Overall, if my defenders average about 40 points between them, I'll be happy.

Incredibly, Mark Bell lasted all the way to round 7, where I got him with the 80th selection. If he sticks on the Thornton-Cheechoo line I may just end up with the steal of the draft.

Marco Sturm was my next selection. A lot of people forgot about Sturm in the wake of Thornton's Art Ross season, but he did gather 29 goals playing on Boston's first line. This year, he'll be playing with one of Bergeron or Savard at center and should be a member of a first unit PP that will also include guys like Chara, Mara and/or Stuart. A 30+ goal season is not not out of the question for Marco.

Kovalev was the first Canadiens taken in the draft. I picked him 104th overall! He's a bit of risk, granted, thanks his penchant for getting injured and taking weeks off at a time. However, he should get top PP minutes in Montreal and does have the capacity to put together a 30-40 goal campaign (if everything goes right). I figured the risk was worth the reward this late in the proceedings.

I've been beating the drum for Kristian Huselius recently, so I plucked him with choice #113. He was Calgary's best player with the man-advantage last season and scored at a 60 point pace while wearing the Flaming C. Should Juice land on the first unit PP with Iggy and Tanguay there's no reason not to expect a career year out of him. In addition, I couldn't in good conscience be a Calgary fan and not select a single Flame.

Finally, I agonized and agonized over my DH pick. Everytime I thought of the "perfect guy" I managed to convince myself it was too obvious a choice and someone else was going to select him. Possibilites that occured to me included McAmmond, Ponikarovsky, Penner, Perry, Rucchin, Amonte, Brunette and Modin. In the end, I settled on Branko Radivojevic, thanks in part to some rumblings that he may be playing on the first line in Minnesota.

So that's it, the die is cast. I'm pretty pleased with my roster and have yet another reason to eagerly anticipate the start of the season.

PS - Special thanks go out to Chunkymoose for the incredible amount of work he put in to facilitating the draft and everything else this past week or so. Kudos!

Rookie Intrasquad Game Notes

I managed to catch most of the scrimmage between the hopefuls for the coming season last night. In many cases, it was my first live and up-close observation of the player in question (in other cases, it was the first time I'd even heard of the guy - Chris Neiszner?).

Initially, the experience was a little overwhelming - trying to diligently follow two full teams of nameless players during a game is akin to counting grains of sand while the tide's coming in. Thankfully, the Flames provided a sheet detailing each players team affiliation (Red or Black) and their jersey numbers. Unfortunately, trying to match number to player through the roster sheet while keeping on eye on play at all times proved to be a bit of challenge. Of course, as the game progressed, certain stand-outs became familiar to me, negating the need to glance at the RS every other time they touched the puck.

For those interested few that were unable to attend, follow the link to some brief youtube material provided by "Furnaceface" from the Calgarypuck.com messageboards:

Link.

(Thanks FF)

Also, the official Flames site has notes on the game here.

My Thoughts:

The Good

- The best goalie of the evening was Leland Irving. He was flawless during the third period, which included a very impressive cross-crease pad save on Eric Nystrom. All the other tenders I saw were roughly equal to each other.

- Justin Taylor (C) was surprisingly good, especially in the 2nd period. He seemed to have decent offensive instincts and made a couple of notable plays down low. Also scored Team Black's second goal.

- Andrei Taratukhin (C) was fairly decent, though he seemed to fade in the third period. He scored a snap-shot-through-the-legs goal in the second period and was an active participant in either end of the rink. He tended to get winded faster than the other players and took shorter shifts, though.

- Eric Nystrom (LW) was decent all around, but was especially effective along the boards. He probably should have scored on the 2on1 against Irving (mentioned above), but he was still clearly one of the better players there.

- Dustin Boyd (C) while being one of the smaller guys was also one of the faster ones. He seemed a little "manic" at times - quick and panicy - but he asserted himself well overall. He managed to make some nice moves breaking in against defensemen.

- Daniel Ryder (C) impressed me throroughly. One of the younger and, like Boyd, more diminuitive players, Ryder still managed to score a goal and was part of one of the best forward trios on the ice near the end of the game (Ryder, Germyn, Prust). He made smart, crisp passes and often seemed to be in the place at the right time. I can't wait to see him here again next year.

- Adam Cracknell (RW) scored with a laser beam to the top corner in the 3rd period, and generally seemed dangerous in the offensive zone most of the night. May be a late, late round steal should he do well in the AHL this season.

- Richie Regehr and Tim Ramholt (D) formed a pretty steady duo for Team Red. Ramholt managed to stand up two advancing forwards in sequence during one play. Regehr was just plain solid all over the ice.

- Mark Giordano (D) popped up here and there. I would go for long stretches without noticing him and then suddenly a d-man would make a great first pass or decent rub-out and I'd have to look up his number again.

- Brandon Prust (LW) was both fast and hungry. I think he had two assists on the night, the best one was a two-on-one feed to Carsen Germyn. Differentiated himself well from a lot of the other hopefuls I thought.

The Bad

- Kris Chucko (RW) was completely unremarkable. To the degree that I had to specifically look for his jersey number to ensure that we was, in fact, playing. I can't remember a single Chucko shift or even play.

- Matt Pelech (D) was similar to Chucko; didn't really stand out. The one time I really noticed him he was "unleashing" a puck at curling speed from the point. Will most assuredly be returning to Junior this year.

- Myles Rumsey (D) was clearly over his head. I doubt you will ever hear his name in the big league.

- John Armstrong (C) was pretty much invisible as well. He has a bunch of years ahead of him, however, so that's not a big concern.

- I expected to see to see more of last year's AHL guys Tomi Maki (LW) and Cam Cunning (LW), but neither of them made any kind of lasting mark.

The final score in the game was 4-2 in favor of Team Red. Cracknell, Germyn, Taratukhin and Ryder scored for the victors while Taylor and Van Der Gulik replied for Team Black.

For those of you that missed last night's tilt the re-match is set for tonight at the saddledome. If guys like Chucko and Pelech assert themselves with some kind of authority, Team Black might be able to avenge Sunday night's defeat...

Flames Pre-Season Begins

Calgary's official start to the pre-season began yesterday with the initiation of the rookie portion of training camp. Here's a lengthy training camp roster that includes all 65 invited players (7 goalies, 19 defensemen, 39 forwards). Apparently, on-ice sessions and practices are open to the public - the first rookie inter-squad game takes place this Sunday afternoon at the Saddledome for all those who are interested. As far as the Big Boys are concerned, main camp opens September 15th and is quickly followed up by the first pre-season match-up September 17th against the Florida Panthers.

If, like me, you're overwhelmed by the sheer volume of players on the training camp roster, Hockey's Future has a more succinct list of the Flames top 20 young 'uns to keep an eye on (21 if count Brent Krahn, who is conspicuously absent for some reason).

Surrounded by rosters and lists and such, I figured the thing to do would be to make my own. Following are those prospects I consider the most interesting:

1.) Brent Krahn - G - A top selection back into 2001, Krahn had his development derailed first by injuries and then by lack of playing time (he was second fiddle in the Lowell system when the Flames shared an affiliate with Carolina). In 05/06, Krahn was finally able to play a full year as the #1 and he didn't disappoint. Even though the Omaha Knights failed to make the post-season, Krahn managed 26 wins, 3 shut-outs and a 2.50 GAA - the latter stat was the 3rd best in the league, ahead of other notable prospects Jimmy Howard (Detroit Red Wings), Josh Harding (Minnesota Wild) and Al Montoya (New York Rangers).

Most observers think this will be Krahn's "make or break season". If he doesn't beat out Jamie McLennan for the back-up position, he will have to be a dominant player in the AHL in order to remove all doubt for next year. Expect him to get some time in the NHL if there's an injury (god forbid) or if McLennan falters.

2.) Eric Nystrom - LW - Nystrom nearly won a spot with the big club last year before being sent down to the minors for some seasoning. By all accounts, Nystrom is a fiesty fore-checker, good skater and an excellent locker-room presence. On the negative side, he failed to put up significant offensive numbers in the AHL last year which probably means he'll never make much of an offensive impact at the NHL level. Unfortunately, that's what the Flames desperately need right now. However, Nystrom, like Nilson and Yelle, promises to have utility as a checking winger and penalty killer, so if either one of the aforementioned Flames players goes down to injury, expect Nystrom to get the call.

3.) Andrei Taratukhin - C - Recently, Darryl Sutter went on record to say that Taratukhin is probably the most talented prospect in the Flame's system. He's relatively old (23) and has already played at the pro level in the Russian Super League the last couple of years. He was also one of the few players on the most recent Russian Olympic team that wasn't already playing in the NHL. While his stats from playing in Russia aren't mind-blowing (9 goals, 15 assists in 40 GP) the difference in the play and scoring in the Super League make it difficult to accurately assess scoring prowess from stats alone. According to his "talent analysis" at russianprospects.com, Taratukhin is an average skater and shooter, but an excellent puck-handler and passer. Determination and work ethic are also mentioned as strengths.

As far as this coming season is concerned, 'Tukhin is a bit of a wild card. His age and experience should stand him in good stead to challenge for a spot on the Flames. He could end up usurping Byron Ritchie's place as the 13th forward, though he'll most likely draw into the Omaha Knights line-up - largely because he's never played NA hockey before and may need additional experience in that regard (also, he has a two-way contract). However, should the likes of Lombardi or Lundmark falter during the season, expect to see Taratukhin in the big line-up sooner rather than later.

4.) Tim Ramholt - D - The "other" defenseman selected behind Dion Phaneuf in 2003, Ramholt kicked ass in the QMJHL that year with the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles - 9 goals and 27 assists in 51 games. By all accounts, he was set to have a bright future in the Nother American Junior ranks before he was lured back to Switzerland for monetary reasons. Back home, Ramholt's development seemed to stall - in 83 games with Zurich and Kloten, he scored just 1 goal and 4 assists thanks to relatively limited ice time.

Now that he's returned to this side of the pond, Ramholt will have to make siginificant strides towards becoming the player many thought he could be before his Swiss hiatus. If he can rediscover his form with top two type minutes on the farm, Ramholt will no doubt be challenging for a spot on the parent squad next season. I will definately be keeping an eye on his AHL numbers as this year progresses.

5.) Kris Chucko - RW - The Flames signed him to a pro contract in May - basically to rescue him from playing at the University of Michigan. While UofM is rumored to have a good system, Chucko had seemingly fallen through the cracks and his development was stagnating. Playing behind other notable prospects, like Phil Kessel, Chucko was resigned to third line checking type minutes - hardly the ideal situation for a first round draft pick.

According to scouts, Chucko is a big guy with a good stride and is strong on the puck. No one's really sure if he can score or not, thanks to his lackluster college numbers (which aren't reflected by some of his decent scoring totals as a minor hockey player), so it remains an open question heading into his first pro season. I don't think we'll see Chucko in the NHL this year, but with a decent AHL season he could be replacing the likes of Amonte or McCarty next October.

6.) Daniel Ryder - C - Ryder might be Calgary's most exciting prospect. He scored 20 goals in his rookie year in the OHL, followed by 29 goals the year after and 38 goals during the most recent campaign. In last season's OHL play-offs, Ryder scored 15 goals and 16 assists in just 19 games and won the Wayne Gretzky award for best play-off performer.

However, it's not just his stats that are intriguing. An OHL coaches poll conducted in the 05/06 season revealed that Ryder was considered a top player in various categories:

voted 3rd "smartest player"
voted 3rd "best on face-offs"
voted 1st "best penalty killer"

A prospect that can take face-offs and kill penalties while leading the team in scoring? Can't remember the last time we've seen something like that in the Flames system - usually it's mostly the penalty-killing type without the scoring ability.

This year, I expect Ryder to be returned to the Peterborough Petes for another year of Junior. If his prior play is any indication, I also expect him to dominate...

7.) Dustin Boyd - C - Boyd had a break-out season as an older guy in the WHL last year. He scored 48 goals and 42 assists in 64 games with the Moose Jaw Warriors, nearly 30 points better than his previous season totals. He also made Canada's Junior Team and was a key component on the gold medal squad.

To me, Boyd is a bit of a question mark. He didn't really do a lot until his final season in the Junior ranks. Either he had some sort of epiphany or was simply an overager taking advantage of an ideal situation. If Boyd turns out to be the real deal, Calgary is gonna have to figure out what to do with all these centers in a couple of years. If not, he'll be a competent AHL player for the rest of his career.

My Other Notables: Matt Pelech, Mark Giordano, Richie Regehr, Brandon Prust.

Overall, it should be an interesting camp. The Flames roster doesn't have a lot of vacancies going into the season, but there are definately some positions which may become available thanks to either veteran injury (Amonte, McCarty, Nilson, Yelle, McLennan) or a project player faltering (Lundmark, Friesen, Lombardi). While I don't think players like Nystrom or Taratukhin will make the Flame's opening night roster, I wouldn't be surprised to see them donning Calgary silks at some later point(s) in the season.

Flames Summer Summary

Assuming the highly dubious rumors regarding a Devils/Flames swap never come to fruition, it looks like Calgary is finished for the summer. And even though the last few weeks have been rather barren, news wise, the summer was a rather busy one for the Flames organization nonetheless. I figured an off-season re-cap was in order, therefore. Enjoy!

May 11 -

Calgary re-signs Stephane Yelle to a 2 year, $2.8 million contract.
Everyone knows Yelle is a Sutter favorite, due in no small part to his tireless work ethic and excellent defensive prowess. A fact clearly demostrated by the rapidity with which Sutter locked him up.

June 6 -

The only guy to get a hat trick in a Flames uniform last year scores a 2 year, $2.4 million deal. The challenge facing Charles Kobasew this coming season is to build on his 20 goals from last year while improving his defensive zone play. That, and not getting clobbered by opposing defensemen every shift.

June 24 -

The Big trade. Sutter sends Jordan Leopold and a 2nd rounder to Colorado for Alex Tanguay. Flames finally acquire another legitimate scoring threat to compliment Iggy. Subsequent analysis of the trade shows that Tanguay excels at ES scoring which was the Flames biggest weakness in 05/06. Wicked.



June 29 -

Rumors begin to surface that the Flames may sign Jeremy Roenick. It came out later that JR had narrowed the choices to Calgary or Phoenix before finally settling on the Coyotes for Family reasons (lived there previously). Whew. Course, should Roenick experience some kind of renaissance in the desert, we may be left lamenting that fact later. But I doubt it.


July 2 -

Sutter plugs the Leopold hole on the blueline by signing former first rounder Andrei Zyuzin to a 2 year, $2.8 million deal. Zyuzin played under Sutter during his days in San Jose and was hopeful Calgary would be one of the teams interested in his services. He reportedly told his agent to "get a deal done" should the Flames give him a call. Mission accomplished.

July 3 -

Chris Pronger gets traded to Anaheim. Not necessarily Flames news, but...I like to rub salt in wounds.

July 5 -

Busy day. Sutter locks up Tanguay for 3 years @ $5.25 million/year and decides to get charitable by giving Friesen a 1 year, $1.6 million chance at redemption. There are some Flames fans arguing that both of these player will end up playing on the #1 scoring unit with Jarome, but Im guessing it will most likely be one over the other. Can you guess which one?

July 6 -

Popular back-up goaltender Jamie McLennan returns to Calgary for just over $500,000. Everyone was sad to see him go at the deadline back in '04, as much for his comical antics as for his play on the ice. He should be an ideal back-up for Kipper this year (jovial, friendly and able to play 10-15 games well and without complaint).

July 8 -

Sutter steps down from his head coaching duties in order to concentrate on his role as GM. Predictably, the reigns are handed over to assistant coach Jim Playfair. It remains to be seen what effect this will have on the team, though most Flames fans consider it a positive move.

July 12 -

The NHL releases the 06/07 schedule. Notable Flames matches include 3 games against the greasers (season opener, New Years Eve, season ending) as well dome visits from Alexander Ovechkin and the Stanley Cup Champion Carolina Hurricanes.

July 27 -

Sutter Signs blueline bruiser Brad Ference. I didn't like this signing much at the time and, in retrospect...I still don't. While Ference will probably be an injury fill-in during the season I still don't really see him exceling - even in that relatively limited role. Oh well. Maybe he'll prove me wrong.

August 4 -

Eric Godard becomes the Flame's next hired goon. Waste of money if you ask me. At least it's a two-way contract.

August 17 -

In what looks to be the final move of the Summer, Sutter and Lombardi finally come to terms. Lombo is re-upped for $1.6 million over the next two seasons. Cheap contract, good offensive potential, no complaints.

Quick-Reference Stuff -

Off-season Additions/Subtractions:

In

Alex Tanguay
Jeff Friesen
Andrei Zyuzin
Jamie McLennan
Brad Ference
Eric Godard

Out

Bryan Marchment (UFA)
Shean Donovan (Signed with Boston)
Cale Hulse (UFA)
Brian Boucher (UFA)
Chris Simon (Signed with NYI)
Craig MacDonald (Signed with Chicago)
Jordan Leopold (Traded for Alex Tanguay)

Current Cap Number - 41.603
Cap Space - 2.397
Number of Players signed - 23
Average Age of Players - 28.4
(numbers gleaned from cataloupehalves Salary Site. See link on the sideboard).

Depth Chart*:

Huselius - Tanguay - Iginla
Friesen - Langkow - Kobasew
Lombardi** - Lundmark - Amonte
Nilson - Yelle - McCarty

(Ritchie, Godard)

Phaneuf - Regehr
Zyuzin - Hamrlik
Warrener - A. Ference

(B. Ference)

Kiprusoff
McLennan

(Krahn)

*(Not meant to reflect potential line combinations)
**(Lombardi listed on left-wing thanks to Calgary's plethora of centers)

Overall, Im fairly pleased at where the team sits currently. Calgary has 2 decent offensive lines, a formidible blueline corps. and a Vezina winner in net. not to mention a bit of cap space to work with should the line-up need tweaking during the season. I could have lived without some of Sutter's signings this off-season (Godard, Ference), but I think the good far out-weighs the bad...

*EDIT - Lombardi numbers listed above are false. He was only re-signed for a single season ($800,000). My bad.

Phoenix - The NHL's Island of Misfit Toys

With the news that Owen Nolan is apparently going to sign with Phoenix I went about wondering (not for the first time) what exactly the game plan is down in the ol' desert.

At a casual glance one is struck with the preponderance of, for lack of a more polite term, NHL cast-offs and "B rate" pseudo-stars peppering the line-up. For example:

- $3 million man Mike Comrie was run out of Edmonton on a rail. He was traded to the Philadelphia Flyers in 03/04 where he played a mere 21 games before being dumped to the Coyotes for some spare parts (Burke, Radivojevic, prospect). Apparently his experiences in Edmonton were so..."significant", TSN sees fit to list them as a "flaw" in his scouting report:

Doesn't have ideal NHL size. Must put his Edmonton ordeal behind him. Needs to work on his play without the puck.

That can't be good.

- Oleg Saprykin. A first round draft pick of the Calgary Flames, Saprykin never managed to live up to his billing. He tended to be very inconsistent and more than a little unintelligent when he was on the ice: his primary offensive strategy seemed to be "skate fast and shoot from anywhere". He would disappear, offensively, for long stretches and was always useless in his own end. After the cup run, he was packaged with Denis Gauthier and sent to Phoenix for Damond Langkow. While a sentimental favorite thanks to being part of the cup-finalist squad, most Flames fans, upon reflection, were glad to see the back of him.

- Jeremy Roenick. JR had a horrible season last year for the $4 million + LA paid him. Thanks to his advancing age and history of concussions, The Mouth was forced to engage in an earnest PR campaign during the summer in order to raise interest in his services around the league. It was rumored he was coming to Calgary for a short while and I was pretty happy when Roenick settled on Phoenix. Seems like a natural fit to me.

- Steven Reinprecht. Another guy who can't seem to stick despite offensive flair, Rhino was first a King, then a Sabre (for about 2 hours) next an Av and then a Flame and is now a Coyote. Speaking from a Flames persepective, Reinprecht has offensive talent. He also has a penchant for inconsistency and isn't the strongest guy around. Not to mention his injury-prone-ness. That said, Rhino ended the year strong after the trade last season and he managed to produce career numbers. Im still a little miffed about the meagre return Sutter got in this trade (Reinprecht, Sauve for Boucher and Leclerc).

- Georges Laraque. Laraque was cut loose this summer by the Oilers despite being immensely popular with players and fans alike. Edmonton management no doubt recognized that the league is on the fast track to rendering guys like Big Georges obsolete. So what do the Coyotes do? Sign the UFA with virtually zero leverage to a 2 year, $2.2 million contract with the an added no trade clause! That's what!

- Mike Ricci. Aging and beat up, Ricci's game has been on the decline for a few years now. He scored 7 goals and 26 points with the Sharks in 03/04 after which he was released as an UFA by San Jose. 'Course, in swooped the Desert Dogs...

- Derek Morris. Don't get me started on Derek Morris. I hated him when he was in Calgary. I went to games back in the dark ages of the "Young Guns" primarily to taunt him...anyways, Morris is another "highly touted" former Flame's draft-pick that has somehow ended up in Phoenix. Calgary got rid of him as soon as Jordan Leopold showed signs of being an NHL defensemen and then he eventually wore out his welome with his 2nd team, Colorado, as well. He's got some skill, but he's pretty much just a passionless tool. Im convinced he'll end his career somewhere in Germany.

- Curtis Joseph. Maligned for being a play-off loser, Joseph was signed by the Coyotes for a virtual song and dance...mainly because no one else was willing to take a chance on him. He's a 39 year-old former all-star who's never won the Stanely cup...and it looks like he never will. His best days are probably well behind him (and he's their #1 goalie next year).

- Philippe Sauve. Was told to basically take a long walk off a short pier by Sutter last season.

- Nick Boynton. Was drafted by Washington in the first round back in '97. Then he was drafted in the first round again by Boston a year later after the Capitals let him re-enter the draft for some reason. After a couple of salary disputes and some injuries, the Bruins sent Boynton to Phoenix for Paul Mara. I still don't understand this trade from a Coyotes perspective. I guess Mara just wasn't "unwanted" enough?

(For those of you that are especially bored, check out the guy listed directly below Boynton on tsn's player list. Excellent porno alias, no?)

And add to all that Owen Nolan. A 34 year old guy who's played all of 79 NHL games in the last 4 years. He was apparently battling knee-injuries and Toronto Maple Leaf lawyers all of the prior season. Hell, after he failed to sign with a team around the trade deadline in March, I figured he was in line for retirement. Guess not.

I suppose they can just keeping adding them to the pile. Should he flop in the swamp, expect to see Bertuzzi wearing Coyotes silks sometime in the near future. Mike Danton's out of prison? How fast can he get down south? I wonder how long Rico Fata's going to swim against the current? Considering their tendency for accumulating ex-Flames-prospect-turned-crappy-player, it's only a matter of time before we see Rico skating swiftly and stupidly into the boards at either end of the Coyotes rink...

EDIT - How could I forget the Brett Hull fiasco?

Top Seven of the Summer

With summer winding down and fresh NHL news dwindling, I decided to fatten the blog with a "Top Stories o' the offseason ('06 edition)" type-post. The last few weeks nothwithstanding, this has been one of the most interesting and frenetic summers in the league's history. So without further preamble, I present "Top Stories o' the offseason":

1.) The Chris Pronger "Situation"

It's rare that a player will demand a trade only a season after signing a 5 year contract. It's even rarer that the player will do so on the heels of an extended run into the play-offs that saw him become the toast of the town. Of course, what made this story so titillating and therefore such great fodder for the mainstream media and bloggers alike was the total lack of clarity surrounding the thing. Not only did Pronger leave for vacation while charging his agent with the task of delivering the stomach-punch worthy news to the Oilers management, he also later refused to properly identify any of his reasons for demanding the trade in the first place. In the face of this lack of details and apparently inexplicable turn of events, the scandalous minds of the puzzled public went about filling the vaccum. What followed was all assortment of rumors and soap-operatic innuendo: Pronger's wife was unhappy in Edmonton because she's an American blue-blood; because she's isolated from her family; because Pronger had an affair with a local puck-bunny... no, wait, a local news anchor. The whispers piled up and were disseminated by way of messageboard, blog, phone, water-cooler gossip and newspaper. Eventually, though, the lack of any solid evidence (as well as threat of litigation, no doubt) disspersed the playground chatter and Pronger was dealt to the Ducks for Lupul, Smid and bunch of future assets. Now, in the wake of Pronger's "Benedict Arnold" Edmonton fans are left with little more than a gaping hole on their blueline and a debate over what unfavorable moniker will replace "The Orbs of Power".

(Yes, that's Chris Pronger in the image above. No, I don't know what he's doing. Pic found here.)

2.) Wang's World

Not wanting to be out-done by Chris and his wife, the Islander's owner Charles Wang fired his newly minted GM Neil Smith (a month into his new 3 year contract) and hired medicore back-up goaltender Garth Snow as his replacement. I still haven't decided if this is more stupid than weird, but it's certainly a bit of both. To Snow's credit, he wrote an open letter to the unfortunate Islander fans that ackowledged the oddity of the situation. It remains to be seen, however, if he can handle the duties of being a NHL GM just as graciously. One of the ironies of this debacle is that Snow was slated to earn a salary of $750,000 as the Islander's back-up this year...which has now become a cap figure he'll have to work around during the year. My final hope, when it comes to this story, is that the NYI suffer a rash of injuries in the crease in the middle of the season, thereby forcing Snow to once again don his giant pads and become the first GM/player in NHL history (or at least, in recent memory)...

Party on Wang! Party on Garth!

3.) Defensemen and the Free Agent Frenzy

It was truly the Year of the Blueliner when it came to cashing in on Unrestricted Free Agency. Zdeno Chara was the biggest winner (literally and figuratively) - he scored a 5 year, 7.5m/year contract with the Boston Bruins. Jovocop was coaxed to the join Gretzky's Desert Dogs for a mere $32.5 million over 5 years. JFJ followed the trend and scooped up Pavel Kubina for $5m/season and Hal Gill for $2.1m per year. Jay Mckee joined the hapless blues for $4 million a year and Willie Mitchell was enticed to the West Coast for $14million over 4 years. Filip Kuba, Kim Johnsson, Jaroslav Spacek, Ruslan Salei - all scored more than $3million/season for several seasons before the dust settled.

In contrast to the manic spending that greeted the summer's onset, NHL GM's have suddenly become tight-fisted in the off-season's twilight. Recently, Duck's GM Brian Burke
chaffed against the relatively sane figure granted to Vitaly Vishnevski in arbitration, while the previously free spending Bruins have walked away from David Tanabe and his $1.25m arbitration award. Considering the league-wide market was valuing players line Salei and McKee at $3/4 million per season only a few short weeks ago, it's hard to fathom why guys like Tanabe and Vishnevski are left trying to justify contracts below $1.6 million a year. I guess the lesson here is: be part of the feeding frenzy early or you'll be left fighting for scraps.

4.) Trading Bert for Roberto

The Bertuzzi/Vancouver saga mercifully came to a close when sophomore GM Dave Nonis managed to deal Bert+parts for Lungo+parts shortly before the draft. The Deal gives the Canucks their first marquee goalie since...uh...ever...while Keenan managed to claim his coveted surly, gruff-speaking, back-of-head-punching power forward. The move will no doubt benefit both clubs and players - Bertuzzi can leave the Moore incident behind in the oppressive media fish bowl that is Vancouver, while Luongo will finally have the chance to lead a hockey-hungry franchise into the play-offs.

5.) Those Stubborn Russians

It's August 9th and there still remains a divide between the Russian Hockey Federation and the NHL regarding the player transfer deal. According to this article the IIHF-NHL agreement

...sets the financial sums the NHL sends to European federations in player transfers. The IIHF redistributes the money among those national federations and clubs that lose players to the NHL, using a formula decided by the IIHF and national federations.

Im not sure what's the onion in the ointment here - the level of compensation or the nature of the IIHF's "redistribution formula". Given that they seem to quibbling over a $200,000 transfer fee for Malkin, Im guessing it's the former rather than the latter. So much for crushing capitalistic greed, eh Comrade?

The upshot for NHL clubs is an inability to bring over any of their Russian prospects. The most notable, of course, being the Pittsburgh Penguin's Evgeni Malkin, who looks like he'll be spending another winter across the pond (despite the Penguins desperate need for any help they can get). Beyond that, it's probable that almost every club has a Ruskie or two they'd like to re-locate to North America. While it looks like some players, like Edmonton's Alexei Mikhnov, may look for ways around the stalled IIHF deal, Im guessing most teams will have to go without many of their young Russian assets this season.

6.) Leopold in, Tanguay Out

Maybe this isn't really a "Top Story" per se, but it sure was big news for Flames fans. My thoughts on the Tanguay acquisition have been enumerated here and here. In addition, MudCrutch devoted a recent post to Tanguay at his site. One of the more amusing bits of news regarding this trade (from a Calgary perspective) is that Leopold will apparently miss the start of the season due to a hernia operation.

7.) NJ Devils Go Cap Crazy

Looking at the Devil's salary commitments for 06/07 is like witnessing a horrible car accident - oddly, perversely fascinating. Lou Lam has less than 60 days before the start of the season; 60 days to re-sign both Brian Gionta and Paul Martin and he has precisely -($2.495m) worth of cap space to do it. It's going to take a bit of GM wizadry to accomplish that feat, no doubt. So either a big ticket guy like Gomez or Rafalski is shipped out for some cheap prospects or Mogilny and Malakhov suffer sudden and inexplicable season ending injuries during training camp. Welcome to the NHL salary-cap era New Jersey!

Anyways, those are the top 7 (as I see it at least). This summer yielded a plethora of other interesting stories, of course: the Ottawa, San Jose, Chicago three way trade involving Havlat and others. The Rask for Raycroft swap. The baffling continuation of Belfour's career. Hasek's 3rd go-round in Detroit. But I think I got the top 7 covered.

As for the rest of the summer...now that Legace has settled on St. Louis, I guess the only story left is the unrestricted free agency of Anson Carter...*sigh*...the season can't start soon enough.

Friesen: The First Line Controversy

The newest debate raging amongst Flame's fan these days is: who will ride the left side on the #1 line come winter?

Course, the assumption is that both Iginla and Tanguay will be the primary fixtures on the top scoring unit. If you take Sutter's assertion that Tangs will be skating down the middle as a Flaming "C" at face value, then the left-winger to complete the trio becomes the lone unknown.

Considering the Flame's depth on the left side:

Kristian Huselius
Marcus Nilson
Jeff Friesen
(Eric Nystrom?)

the natural choice seems to be Kristian Huselius. He's got top-notch stickhandling and puck-distribution skills and is a great producer on the PP. Personally, however, I would prefer to see Juice on the 2nd unit with Damond Langkow and Chuck Kobasew (both de facto 2nd liners since Tanguay and Iginla are the unquestioned #1 guys at those respective positions). As I recall, Langkow and Juice were perhaps the only forward tandem that developed a modicum of chemistry last season. In addition, it would probably be beneficial to spread out the offensive threats across two lines (can't remember the last time I said that about the Flames) rather than concentrate all the firepower on the top unit. So, basically, Im hoping the Huselius-Tanguay-Iginla line is the first PP unit rather than the #1 even-strength unit.

Marcus Nilson? He's a checking line winger. He'll be killing penalties and playing against other #1 lines all year with Stephane Yelle no doubt. So scratch Nilson.

As for Eric Nystrom, Im not even sure he'll make the team...let alone get time with Tangs and Iginla.

Therefore, as far as natural left-wingers go, Jeff Friesen is the last choice. And considering his rather dreadful season last year, it doesn't seem to be a very savory one. For those uninformed few, Friesen played for the Capitals and the Ducks in 05/06 and only managed to accrue a paltry 11 points in 51 GP. That's a 17 point year had he played the full 82 games. Which is just bad. Really, really bad.

Fortunately, if one were to look at Friesen's career thus far, it's probably reasonable to consider last season an abberation - he's scored 20+ goals and 50+ points five times previously. He was drafted in the first round back '94 with the view of becoming a goal-scorer at the NHL level. So there's obviously some ability there. The question remains whether Friesen is actually a worthy reclamation project or just another failed experiment who is swiftly and inexorably sinking into career-4th-liner obscurity.

With that question in mind, I went about investigating Friesen's even-strength and powerplay production efficiency over the 2 seasons prior to 05/06. I figured by treating his most recent performance as the statistical abortion it appears to be, I may be able to determine his true utility as an offensive player...

In 02/03, Friesen played approximately 1259 total minutes, 1042 of which were ES and 207 were PP minutes. That year with the Devils he scored 43 ESP and 8 PPP. His ESP/60 and PPP/60 stats came out to about 2.48 and 2.32, respectively. While the former is superior to most Flames forwards (from the 05/06 season), it's probably a rather median figure in terms of top 6 forwards in the league. The latter number is pretty much pitiful, considering that Jordan Leopold's most recent ESP/60 stat was 3.25. Ouch.

In 03/04, Friesen's offensive production went down. He played similar minutes (1226 total, 1035 ES and 18 PP) but only produced 26 ESP and 11 PPP. That translates to an ESP/60 stat of approx. 1.51 and a PPP/60 stat of 3.53. While his PP proficiency managed to reach that of, say, a servicable 1st unit defenseman, his even-strength proficiency dived to the level of a 4th liner. Hmm...not good.

I figured I might as well average the numbers over the 2 seasons, so I summed the relevant ice-times and offensive stats and generated an "overall" ESP/60 stat of 1.99 and a PPP/60 figure of 2.89.

So, yeah...crappy. Nothing about these figures says "first-line winger" to me. If anything, Friesen seems to be charted on that course to obscurity I mentioned above. I suppose there are some other factors worth considering here - Friesen was stuck behind Patrik Elias on the depth charts in NJ, which no doubt limited (to a degree) the amount he played with "top-line talent". In addition, the Devils were hardly an offensive force from 02-04. In fact, even though Friesen managed a mere 37 points in 03/04, he actually placed 3rd on the Devils behind Gomez and Elias as far as point-getters were concerned (keep in mind, however, that the drop-off was a fairly significant one: Elias scored 81 points and Gomez 70). In addition, I suppose I could have employed Friesen's career numbers for this investigation, although it's questionable how relevant his 62 point performance in 96/97 would be, at least in terms of trying to predict his performance for the 05/06 season - to this end, his more recent numbers probably have more utility.

Overall, there's a good chance Friesen will get some time on the top line, by virtue of his being a left-winger, but he likely won't do a lot while there if the stats are to be trusted. Were I to guess, I'd predict Friesen will eventually be relegated to 3rd/4th line duty with Amonte and Lundmark.

As far as the #1 line goes...I'd personally prefer to see Lombo gunning down the left-wing with Iginla and Tangs (assuming he'll be re-signed, that is). With the Flame's sudden over-flow of centermen (Tanguay, Langkow, Yelle, Lundmark, Ritchie, Lombardi), converting one of the face-off men to the wing will no doubt be a necessity anyhow. Lombo is fast, an excellent passer and showed some chemistry with Iginla in his rookie season (IIRC). And he's left-handed. If the Flames management (ie Sutter) is serious about developing Lombardi into a offensive forward, I can't think of a better way to accomplish that feat than granting him significant ice-time with the likes of Iginla and Tanguay. While re-invigorating the career of a 30 year-old ex-goal-scorer (who appears to have settled into mediocrity) may be a worthwhile experiment...I'd prefer to bank on developing a future sniper in Lombardi with our potentially potent, first-line assests (Iginla, Tamguay) this coming season.

Where For Art Thou Lombo?

Let's see...

Tanguay signed, Kobasew signed, Huselius signed. Check, check, check. Simon and Donovan let go, Zyuzin acquired. Yelle inked to a couple more years. Everything seems to be in order...

...except the Lombardi situation. WTF is going on there?

It's hard to guess, primarily because there have been precious few details released about the subject. Pretty much all I know is that Lombo didn't accept his qualifying offer. What I *think* that means he is technically a restricted FA - one who is most porbably trying to garner more money from the Flames.

Even with that in mind, it's hard to fathom how this situation has stretched on for so long. Lombo simply doesn't have the statistical leverage to argue for a "financially prohibitive" contract (prohibitive from a club/cap perspective) - he's played 134 NHL games and scored at a rate of 0.41 PPG during that time. Last season, Lombardi managed only 6 goals and 20 assists in 55 games. That's a 39 point season, extrapolated over 82 games. Which is nothing to write home about and hardly worthy of any sort of significant raise.

Perhaps it's the length that is causing the impasse. Because Lombo probably can't argue for anything above $1 million/season, Sutter may be fishing for a longer term contract - say three or four years. Four years at $1 million per would no doubt become a steal should Lombardi actually blossom into a top 6 forward. Course, Lombo's agent knows this and is arguing for the raise + a shorter term contract. Two years max?

I guess the final sticking point could be bonuses/incentives. The agent in question probably realizes that:

1.) His client doesn't have impressive stats and therefore can't demand a big base salary.
2.) The Flames consider him an offensive prospect and hope to develop him into a scoring center.

Therefore, the big money for Matthew may reside in performance incentives. Can't argue for $2 million in base pay? Go for the "$500,000 for 20 goals" and "$750,000 for 60 points" clauses. On the other side of the table, Sutter undoubtedly knows that big performance incentives will drain most of the value on the dollar he'd be gleaning from a player like Lombo: getting "more" for "less" from young, homegrown talent is basically the new way to win in a salary-capped league. Hence the delay. Sutter doesn't want to lock Lombardi in for a few years at a relatively meagre salary figure only to have to pay out "fair value" should he actually perform.

I'm pulling this outta my ass, for anyone who hasn't come to that conclusion already. Hell, maybe all parties concerned went on vacation and agreed to negotiate in August and there's nothing more to it than that. However, going into the off-season I would have assumed Lombardi's to be one of the easier contracts to get negotiated and signed...which leads to the paranoid ramblings above.

Whatever the cause of the delay, I hope he's re-signed soon: $1 million/year, 4 years, (incentives minimal).

Tanguay - To Score or Not to Score

I finally got around to compiling some "basic plus" stats for Tanguay - namely the ESP/60 and PPP/60 numbers. I also managed to dredge up the stats for some of the other Av's forwards last year - mainly to place Tanguay in the context of his teammates.

Anyhoo, here are the results:



Observations:

- Overall, Im fairly pleased with the results. Tanguay played more than 930 minutes of even strength hockey last season and, as you can see, he managed to produce points at a pretty significant clip (3.15 points per 60 minutes). He played the third most (forward) ES minutes on the team (behind Sakic and Laperriere) and still managed to be tops in terms of ESP/60. From a Calgary Flames perspective, this is very good news. As you may or may not know from the previous work I put in, the Flames were nothing short of horrible at ES scoring in 05/06. Calgary's top (high minutes) player, Jarome Iginla, only scored at a rate of 1.80/60 minutes last year: that's barely over half of Tanguay's number! Hell, even Ian Laperriere did better than Jarome! Clearly, the Flames needed some help in this department. While there are probably some team/systemic issues that contributed to Calgary's weak ESP stats, adding the top ESP player from the Avs is still a big step in the right direction.

- The PPP/60 results were a little surprising, largely due to the number Andrew Brunette managed to put up. It's not like he benefitted from a couple of 2nd assists on the occasional PP shift either - Brunette played 310 PP minutes, good for 4th most among forwards. As for Tanguay, he played 354 minutes (2nd behind Sakics 438) and managed to generate about 4.92 points/60 minutes played. Comparison-wise, Tanguay's PPP/60 and PP minutes played stats are almost identical to Damond Langkow's numbers from last season (4.94 PPP/60, 352 minutes). Between the two teams overall, the rookie Marek Svatos managed to score the highest in terms of powerplay efficiency (5.62 PPP/60), while Kristian Huselius came in a close second (5.54 PPP/60). Svatos played about 70 less minutes less than Juice on the PP thanks to his injury shortened season, but it's hard to say whether that would make a huge difference (I have no interest in trying to calculate variance and statistical significance...sorry).

As I mentioned, Im pleased with the results. Tanguay's main strength, ES production, was the Flame's primary area of weakness last season. The challenge, or course, will be to adequately harnass the potential for more ES goals that Tanguay's addition brings. He obviously CAN get the job done, but the question remains WILL HE be able to do it under the relatively "offensively oppressive" Flames system...

Nerding Out...Cont'd

So I kept one of my promises from this recent post and calculated the 05/06 PPP/60 (Power Play Points per 60 minutes) for each Flames player.

Here are the results:

Observations:

- Andrew Ference was surprisingly efficient at producing points with the man advantage. While his number is higher than The Dion's, keep in mind that he only played about 219 PP minutes last season - significantly less than Phaneuf's 436 minutes. In fact, if memory serves, Ference gathered a great deal of his powerplay points feeding Phaneuf passes while Hamrlik was down with injury. That being said, it seems like he should probably be granted some significant PP time next season, with or without Hamrlik in the line-up.

- Kristian Huselius is, apparently, The Man on the powerplay. At least as far as the forwards are concerned (don't want to anger The Dion). He played the third most minutes of any forward on the PP (next to Iginla and Langkow) and still managed to put up a pretty significant number. I think we know who'll be flanking Tanguay and Iginla on the first unit next year. At least, we know who should be.

- Hamrlik was brought in last summer with the hopes he'd be an offensive weapon on the point during the man advantage. Didn't really happen. Even though he was injured a great deal, Hamrlik played on the PP slightly more than Ference (251 minutes vs. 219). but managed to be less efficient at producing points. Hopefully this coming season Hammer can

a.) stay healthy and
b.) produce at a better rate on the PP.

Especially for his $3.5 million. Hell, even Robyn Regehr, he of the "defensive defenseman" persuasion produced at an equivalent rate. For now, I guess I can give Hamrlik the benefit of the doubt and assume his various injuries were impeding his offensive abilities. Although, it would be nice to see Roman's career PPP/60 stat - maybe it's the expectations about Hamrlik's production that are out of line?

- Surprisingly, Langkow was slightly better than Iginla in this department last year. Although, I don't know how much significantly different 4.94 is from 4.21 (keep in mind, Langkow played almost 100 minutes less than Jarome).

- Stephane Yelle: better than Kobasew, Amonte and Lombardi on the PP? Only thanks to a small sample size...he played a mere 60 minutes 5on4 last season. Should Yelle ever get a regular PP shift (he won't), expect that number to go WAY down.

- Jordan Leopold was pretty bad in this department too last year. Course, you already know that.

As useless as this information seems to be (Leopold isn't even a Flame anymore), it might be interesting for comparison purposes once hockey gets going again. With the apparent promise of more offense next season, it'll be worthwhile to examine each player's performance in light of this past year's stats.

Next up...Tanguay, Friesen and Zyuzin ESP and PPP.

Nerding Out

Pursuant to this post over at Battle of Alberta, I figured I'd try my hand at conjuring some "basic plus" stats for Calgary players from the previous regular season.

I decided that my first, trembling step into statistical geekdom would be to do some ESP/60 (even strength points produced per 60 minutes worth of ice-time) . To that end, I went over to nhl.com and simply copied the available ice-time stats into an excel spreadsheet. Observe:

The data was sorted according to total ice-time over the course of the year from most to least (yup, that's Dion Phaneuf leading the team). Also included in the dataset (but outside of the screencapture to the left) was total PP and SH ice-time as well as averaged ES, PP and SH ice-time per game.

Some items of interest before we proceed: Jordan Leopold was 3rd on the team in terms of total ice-time, even though he only played 74 games. While his ESP/60 stat is abysmal (as you will see below), it should be noted that his was a fairly significant loss, defensive-minutes-wise, on the back-end. Let's hope that the Zyuzin can step in and adequately fill that hole next year...

Anyways, back on track. Next, I rounded the total even-strenght ice-time for each player to the nearest minute. While this may skew the results a tiny bit, the degree of error is probably negligible.

After gathering the ice-time info, I transcribed all of the ES, PP and SH point totals for each player into the speadsheet. The final step was to set-up the ol' formula bar to calculate ESP/60 employing the data mentioned.

The results:

The Observations:

- Some players, like Germyn, Giordano, Ritchie and Macdonald were excluded. They didn't play enough minutes nor gather enough points to generate any kind of significant number.

- Lundmark, Leclerc and Lombardi's ESP/60 numbers are somewhat inflated due to (relatively) small sample size. They each played only 437, 514 and 566 ES minutes repsectively. In addition, Mike Leclerc's ESP stat is probably totally irrelevant in terms of production as a Flame: he only played 15 of his 50 games in Calgary silks and produced a mere 5 points in that time. Some encouragement may be gleaned from both Lombardi and Lundmark's decent numbers, though. Especially considering that Lundmark scored 10 points in 12 games with Calgary, despite only averaging about 8-10 minutes per game. It's hard to say how much their numbers would dip if they were consistently given more minutes against harder (say, top 2 defensemen) opposition.

- Chris Simon was actually better at producing at ES than I expected. He didn't get a lot of ice-time, 636 minutes in 72 games, which likely speaks to his utility as an all around player.

- Despite his relatively sub-par season, Jarome was still the top ES producer (for a high minutes player) on the team. I would be interested to see how this compared to other top point-getters across the league (not too favorably I would guess).

- Dion Phanuef was the best ES scoring defenseman, despite getting most of his points on the PP (although his number is still below the likes of Stephane Yelle).

- Shean Donovan and Juice were actually pretty comparable in terms of production at ES. Keep in mind, though, that Huselius had a terrible start to the year in Florida (8 points in 24 GP). In addition, Huselius gathered more than half of his points on the PP (28 of 47).

- As we all knew, Jordan Leopold had a horrendous season, offensively (His PP stats are only marginally better). I expect him to be at least twice as good (0.76 ESP/60) with Colorado next season.

I'll look into doing up some ESP numbers for Tanguay (if I feel like it) in the near future. It'll be interesting to see how he compares - course his ESP production on a team like Colorado will undoubtedly be a little chubby as compared to the Flame's roster. I suppose I could interpret his ESP number in the context of the entire avalanche team...

...*sigh* this is a lot of work.

In the meantime, I may put together some PPP/60 for Flames players from last year. Or... I may just revert to linking to tsn.ca reports and making glib comments. I guess we'll see.

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Chasing Gomez

Time for some (non-erotic) fantasizing...

So everyone knows the New Jersey Devils are in cap trouble. And I mean BIG TIME cap trouble. According to tsn, their current signed roster looks like:

- Elias - 7.5
- Brodeur - 5.2
- Rafalski - 4.2
- Madden - 3.893
- Malakhov - 3.6
- Mogiliny - 3.5
- White - 3
- Langenbrunner - 2.8
- McGillis - 2.2
- Brylin - 1.52
- Matvichuk - 1.368
- Lukowich - 1
- Wiemer - .950
- 5 guys ranging from .836 - .450
-----------------------------------------
Total - $43.93 million

Notable RFA's left to sign: Scott Gomez (30 goals, 80 points last season) and Brian Gionta (48 goals, 90 points last season).

Ouch. I can't fathom how galling it must be for ol' Lou to have those $7 million anchors, Malakhov and Mogilny, dragging down the payroll. Talk about learning a lesson the hard way.

Anyways, I digress. Assuming tsn's numbers are completely correct (which usually they aren't, but let's pretend) what we have here is a team that:

1.) Has (once they re-sign him) a young, skilled center with "Gretzky-like vision" who has to play with "skilled linemates to be effective". And...
2.) A desperate need to dump salary.

Hmmm. Seems like a fit to me. Granted, Gomez has been on Flames fan's wishlists for a long time - his swift skating and passing abilities make him a natural fit to center Iginla. Of course, New Jersey has had little reason to trade him.

Until now.

Already bumping against the cap ceiling, the Devils have approximately $6-7 million/year in potential contracts for RFA's Gomez and Gionta . If not more. Considering the kind of stats both players put up in 05/06, $6 million combined for each is a conservative estimate.

So what is a Lou to do?

He can't get rid of the Mogilny or Malakhov abortions. He's stuck with them. Nor can he trade Brodeur - the Devils don't have another starter waiting in the wings. The lumbering dinosaur of a contract he gave to Elias dissaudes any deals there. And he'd have to get rid of a lot of Wiemers, Brylins and Lukowichs to make any sort of significant dent in the payroll.

Here's my suggestion (ie fantasy):

Trade Rafalski to Edmonton for a much cheaper blueliner (MA Bergeron?) and some prospects/picks. Edmonton has a lot of cap space, a desperate need for a top minute d-man and bunch of "potentials" garnered from the Pronger trade. The move gets him a 14 goal scorer on the blueline, some future assets and frees up more than $3 million in cap space (Rafalski's 4.2 - Bergeron's .969).

Next, sign Gomez to something like a $4 million/year contract and trade him to...wait for it...CALGARY for Mat. Lombardi+prospect/picks. This way, Lou gets back a CHEAP, young, offensive center who can play at the NHL level right away, more future assets and conserves most of the space he created by dumping Rafalski...which, of course, would leave him with enough room to re-sign Gionta at the $3 million/year he'll be asking for. Or near enough, at least. Another minor move - say dealing someone like a Sergei Brylin to Washington for a 3rd rounder - would probably need to happen to make this scenario at all workable. But, hey, it's possible right? Right??

So does this actually work from a Calgary Flames perspective? Let's see...

The acquisition of Gomez would give Calgary a fairly formidable group of top 6 forwards:
Tanguay - Gomez - Iginla
Huselius - Langkow - Kobasew

Drool-inducing, no? Especially for offense-starved Flames fans.

In addition, this kind of move would help de-clutter all the "young potential 2nd/3rd line centers" in the Flame's cupboard. With Langkow, Lundmark and Lombardi already in the NHL and prospects Boyd, Seitsonen, Ryder and the recently signed Russian Olympian Andrei Tarathukin in the system (plus the 4+ centers Calgary drafted this summer), the team is quickly heading towards a big ol' cluster-eff-log-jam down the middle.

As far as cap issues go, a $4 million/year Gomez would probably push the Flames to the limit. The fantasy gets (even more) unlikely at this point without dumping some salary - say a Rhett Warrener or Roman Hamrlik for a draft pick or two.

Probable? No. Sutter loves his defensive depth. I think he literally lies awake in the middle of the night, sweating and anxious, at the thought of having the likes of Mark Giordano patrolling the blueline on a regular basis.

To make the fantasy even more convoluted, I may as well ask if it would be worth giving up a Hamrlik (and Lombardi) for a Gomez. Would it? Would the potential for an injection of 70-80 points and a more diversified offensive attack off-set the effects of having a greater amount of quality shots and chances (and thus, more goals) against?

I can honestly say "yes", with the confidence of man that cheers for a team that has the best goaltender in hockey. Probably above and beyond anyone else in the league, the Flames could stand to take a few more risks, in terms of defensive personnel, without suffering dire consequences. The resualtant equation looks like:

(Kipper in net+Gomez out front+young defenseman on the back-end) - (Lombardi+future assets+Hamrlik) = net gain in goal differential.

By my math at least. Not that I was ever that great at math.

Anyways, that's my fantasy. Knowing that there are tons of GM's looking at the NJ situation and spinning out similar scenario's in their heads pretty much assures that something like this won't actually happen (for Calgary). And, like my earlier Elias musings, I don't really think this has much grounding in reality.

Sure is fun to consider though.

The Fall of the House of Legace and Other Oddities

It's almost become worthy of a carnival freakshow - purusing NHL headlines on TSN everyday makes one wonder what odd, grotesque or disturbing bit of news will pop up next. For instance:

- The latest menage-et-trade between Ottawa, Chicago and San Jose yielded more than one headscratcher. The deal went like this - Chicago traded Mark Bell to San Jose for Tom Priessing and Josh Hennessy (a prospect), who then turned around and flipped those players in a package (plus another prospect and a pick) to Ottawa for a return of Martin Havlat and Brian Smolinski.

First oddity - why is San Jose trading defensemen? As of right now they have 3 under contract: youngster Matt Carle, Scott Hannan and Kyle McLaren. At least with Priessing they had a relatively comfortable top 4 on the back-end. Now? Three guys left and a waning UFA list. While the Sharks still have a tradable asset in Nabokov to move for some help on the blueline, the market doesn't seem to be working in their favor currently - quality defensemen are the hottest thing going (see contracts for: Chara, Jovo, Redden, Kubina, Corvo, Johnsson, etc.) while there's more "supply" than "demand" for goaltenders (Just ask Manny Legace). So while Mark Bell might help the Shark's secondary attack, I'm not sure it was worth trimming an already thin defense corps. to land him.

Second oddity - There are reports that Martin Havlat has signed a 3 year, $18 million deal with the Hawks. Let's be clear here - Havlat has tremendous offensive upside and is an exciting young sniper...but, come on, 6 big bills per season!! For Havlat!? He's never played more than 72 games in a year and has never scored more than 31 goals! How he manages to garner franchise player type money is beyond me.

And I guess we can surmise that winning and/or playing in a quality organization were NOT the things Havlat was going to pursue in what would have been his UFA summer next year. His reluctance to make a longer-term commitment coupled with his absurd Blackhawkian-pay-day make this deal intelligible from a Senator standpoint. With players like Spezza, Alfreddson, Heatley and Redden already on the roster, shedding Havlat's injury-prone-money-grubbing-opponent-kicking ass makes a lot of sense. In addition, Ottawa got the Hawks to take on Smolinski's useless presence (and salary figure) in the deal as well. Not to mention getting a young up-and-comer like Priessing to boot.

Score. At least SOMEONE'S doing something right.

- The glut of goaltenders on the market notwithstanding, it's probably tough for some people to comprehend how Manny Legace hasn't been aggressively pursued yet. His stats from last season are stellar: 2.19 GAA (good for 3rd in the league), 0.915 SP (8th) had 7 shut-outs and a 37-8-3-7 record. Granted, one has to consider that Legace played for the best regular season team in the league, in the weakest division. However, in the last 4 seasons with the Red Wings, Legace's SP has never been lower than 0.911 and his GAA has never plunged below 2.42. In the last 2 seasons, Legace has played 92 games (5, 230 minues) and has lost only 18 of them (in regulation). Surely, Manny deserves a moderate amount of credit for numbers this impressive - team and division aside. At 33 years old he must be worth, at the very LEAST, a one year go 'round. Especially when ancient fossils like Hasek, Belfour and Roloson are still haunting the league's creases.

So what's wrong with Manny? It can't be simply the strong team/weak division issue. Well, if this article is to be believed, it was Legace's play-off performance that dissuaded the Red Wings from signing him (and, therefore, anyone else as well). While Legace was less than Stellar this past April, the team in front of him was decidedly less than good as well...which makes me think it's MORE than just a shakey 7 games that is keeping GM's away from the Legace Well - keep in mind that JFJ decided to trade for Andrew Raycroft: a deal that won him probably the worst tender in the NHL last season AND cost him a top-notch propsect in Rask.

Aside from JFJ's incompetence, there's gotta more to it. On the face of it, the decision to do that deal for Raycroft when Legace could have been had for nothing looks absurd to even the most mentally challenged hockey fan...

I think one of the best clues as to why ML has become a social pariah can be found in this post from Abel to Yzerman, aptly dubbed "Out of the Mouth of Legace". Anyone who followed the Red Wings/Oilers (or read the above blog during that time) can probably attest to the very public and almost juvenile mental collapse of Legace during the series. "I feel like going out and hanging myself" was Manny's response to being upset in game 7. Hmmm...not the kind of thing that inspires confidence in a teammate. Kinda sounds like the twitchy, anxious, bound-to-die character that inhabits most action/horror flicks - you know, like Bill Paxton's sissy-army-guy from Aliens: "Game over man! GAME OVER!!"

A later post from Abel to Yzerman says as much: it wasn't Legace's play that soured his teammates and coaches on him - it was his attitude. And sadly for Manny THAT may be a lot harder thing for prospective employers to get over than, say, a season of bad stats...

- On a somewhat related note, there's indications that Ken Holland is getting ready to sign Ed Belfour. Let's see...very old, very injury prone and coming off a very bad year. Uh...with options like JS Giguere and Nabokov to be had via trade one has to wonder what Holland is thinking. Didn't he take note of the Hasek/Ottawa fiasco? It's a move so baffling and idiotic, from what seems to be a sensible GM, it almost smacks of some shady, "blackmaily"-type dealings. Does Belfour have some Holland+five iron+goat pictures in his possession? Or maybe Eddie simply bribed Ken with an offer he couldn't refuse? Whatever the reason, Im fairly certain that the Eagle (should he definitively land in Detroit) will prove to be the Red Wings undoing next season.

F'ed in the A

I guess I should stop ignoring the White Elephant in the room and post something about the Pronger trade...

Let's see. Pronger for Lupul and a prospect (Smid) and some high picks (first rounder, a conditional first rounder and a second rounder).

Yup, it's an "F" alright: an F right in the A.

Or at least it seems to be - from an Oiler's perspective, anyways. Especially considering the short-term ramifications. Take a look at the Greaser's current blueline brigade, for instance:

- Steve Staios
- Jason Smith
- MA Bergeron
- Matt Greene
- (Syvret, Smid)?

One can almost hear Spacek's agent cackling gleefully. Not only did this weekend's activity set the bar obscenely high for slightly above average defensemen (like Spacek), but he now has mountains of leverage in the form of KLowe desperation which he will no doubt turn into a long-term, lucrative deal for his client. Just another gentleman caller looking to woo the Oil with his "rapist wit" (apologies to Dumb and Dumber).

Not that the Oil won't be well used and lubed by the time that comes around. First, Pronger screws them by demanding the trade. Then, a little drunk from their SCF run, they bow to the pressures of Roli and Pisani and overpay to keep them around. Then that wily ol' Burke sneaks up on them in the showers and delivers the above deal to boot.

Ouch.

Course, it's not really ALL bad. Edmonton has a ton of cap room and a pretty deep core of young, scoring forwards...especially with the addition of Lupul. IF Lowe can somehow patch the gaping 30 minute hole left by Pronger through trades or free agency, they might escape this whole debacle sans Pronger and pride but otherwise intact.

So what's left in the UFA pool anyways? Not much.

Gone are premium names like Redden, Chara, Jovo and Blake. Heck, even most of the 2nd-tier d-men have been claimed - McKee, Witt, Ward, Zyuzin, Kuba, Kubina, Gill, Pothier, Corvo, Mitchell, Johnsson - all snatched up between Saturday and Monday.

Which means there's certainly no ONE guy out there that can take Pronger's place in Edmonton. Here are some players who are (unofficially) still available:

Radoslav Suchy, Jason Woolley, Shane Hnidy, Daniel Tjarnqvist, Jiri Slegr, Ian Moran, Rory Fitzpatrick, Cale Hulse, Bryan Marchment, Jamie Pushor, John Erskine, Dick Tarnstrom, Joel Kwiatkowski, Jamie Allison, Alex Karpovtsev, Todd Simpson, Tommy Albelin, Joel Bouchard, Jason Strudwick, Brad Norton, Lyle Odelein, Patrick Traverse, Cory Cross, Igor Ulanov, Jamie Rivers, Chris McAllister, Kevin Dallman, Mathieu Biron, Jason Doig, Brad Brown

Assuming they'll re-sign Spacek, Edmonton will probably want at least one more d-man that can play 20 minutes a night. Radoslav Suchy maybe? Dallman? Erskine? Jason Woolley?? Of course, what if they DON'T re-sign Spacek? Which 2 of the above would you take to play top 4 minutes??? *shudder*

It's an unpleasant prospect to be certain. 'Course, there's always the trade route...though, considering the leagues frothing-at-the-mouth demand for quality defensemen currently, one can figure that a top 4 guy will come at a pretty significant cost. Is Hemsky, Stoll or Horcoff worth a top 4 guy? Would one of each even be enough in the current market?

Tough questions, tough call. Grabia has an exhaustive post at the Battle of Alberta for those of you that are morbidly curious about the future facing ol' Shelbyville...

As for the Anaheim perspective - well...

you give up a young up-coming scorer...something you have in spades anyhow. You acquire one of the top 5 d-men in the league, even though you ALREADY HAVE one of those in Niedermayer. With those two anchors on the back-end it almost doesn't matter who else they decide to dress on the blueline. Oh...and they have cap room to spare. Scary.

If Anaheim is able to garner the kind of seasons they got out of Selanne, Getzlaf, MacDonald and co. again next year, they could be a force to be reckoned with. One thing's for certain, though - the Battle of California is sure going to be interesting to watch.

The Free Agent Feeding Frenzy

The madness began Saturday. And I don't think it's going to stop any time soon.

Looking at the large and lengthy deals being thrown at the various UFA's this weekend, "madness" is certainly an appropriate term. It almost seems like "Mad" Mike Milbury imposed his habit of conjuring albatross-type-contracts upon a sizable portion of the NHL's general managers - which is all the more baffling in light of the salary-capped CBA.

So, without further foreplay...let's examine the wreckage.

Saturday:

- Boston inks Chara and Savard to a massive five year deals, each worth 7.5 and 4 million per season respectively. This looks to me like a green GM earnestly trying to make a big splash in his new position. Both contracts are too long and too fat - Savard can't play defense, has never seen the post season and has inflated offensive stats thanks to playing alongside guys like Hossa and Kovalchuk on the PP. While Chara is indeed a premium blueliner, his huge, lanky frame probably comes with more risk from wear and tear than other players - that, and he always seems to struggle in the post-season. If either of these guys stumble in their first couple of seasons with Boston, the Bruins are gonna be stuck with $11.5 million worth of onerus headaches per season.

- The Flames replace Jordan Leopold with Andrei Zyuzin. Zyuzin can play top 4 minutes and comes at the relatively low price of 1.4/season. The Sutter connection should have disuaded from picking the wrong Wild d-man in this post.

- Carolina signs John Grahame. Meh.

- Chicago picks up Patrick Lalime. Great, now they have two horrible former #1 goalies.

- Detroit re-signs Chris Osgood. YAWN. The Red Wings better start looking for a new starter pretty soon. At least they didn't sign Lalime.

- Edmonton picks up Pisani and Roloson to 4 and 3 year deals respectively. As mentioned previously here, that's just too long (and too much) for both players. Roloson, a career back-up until last season, is now being paid more than Kiprusoff - and he's 36. Pisani had a career season and superb play-offs, but let's face it; he's a third line forward who's a Shean Donovan away from averaging 9 goals and 25 points a season for the next 4 years.

- The Kings coax Rob Blake back into the fold with a well-paying, but short, 2 year contract. That sounds about right.

- The Wild revolution continues with Minnesota adding Mark Parrish, Keith Carney and Kim Johnsson. Yikes. It looks like the Wild have finally grown weary of finishing last in the NW division.

- The Devils re-sign Langenbrunner to a 5 year, 2.8/season deal. Decent amount of money for a play-0ff performer, which probably mitigates the excessive length of the contract.

- The Rangers lock up Matt Cullen and the oft-forgotten Karel Rachunek. Cullen's 4 year, $11.2 million contract isn't a terrible burden, provided his career season last year wasn't a total aberration. He'll bring some grit and balance to New York's line-up. Not sure about Rachunek's deal, but Im guessing it'll be a brief 1 or 2 year "try out" contract. Im sure the Rags are hoping for another Roszival-type revelation in Rachunek.

- Ottawa shores up their goaltending and defense by adding former Hurricane Martin Gerber and offensively minded d-man Joe Corvo. Expect Gerber and Emery to split starting duties in the Capital next season. Corvo will probably get first unit PP time with Redden. Corvo's 4 year, 10.5/season contract is a risk, but could become a steal should he flourish in the fertile soil that is the Ottawa Senators.

- Phoenix grabs Jovo-cop for a staggering $6.5/season for 5 years. Too much and too long for an incomplete rearguard. Jovo is a big, mean, give-away machine. They should have signed someone nice and defensive, like Witt or McKee. Maybe the desert dogs will have the last laugh if Jovo leads the league in points by a defenseman next year. Course, I may still have the last laugh if he's -15.

- Tampa Bay signs...Andy Delmore? Why do teams keep picking this guy up? They also snagged my coveted Filip Kuba for 3 years, 3 million per. Nice length, too much money. Why is T-bay in cap trouble again?

- And now for some laughers - Toronto signs Pavel Kubina to a 4 year, $20 million deal and Hal Gill to a 3 year, $6.3 million contract. Yup, Pavel Kubina, he who has never broken the 40 point total and has never been better than +9 is being paid 5 MILLION DOLLARS. PER SEASON. Then there's Hal "the Glacier" Gill. Over 2 million a year for a guy who can neither skate nor score. I hope they pair him with Belak.

So now the Leafs have nearly $20 million in cap space tied up in 4 defensemen - and none of them are what I would consider clear cut "#1" guys. Smart. S-M-R-T.

- Vancouver bolsters their depleted blueline with Willie Mitchell. While the Canucks were badly in need of some depth on the back-end, Im not sure that paying a defensive defenseman $14 million over 4 years is a wise choice. At least he's a combined +44 over his last 3 seasons I guess.

- Washington plucks Pothier from the FA pool for $10 million over 4 years. This helps the Capitals get closer to the salary-basement while getting better on the back-end.

Worst Signings of the day:

Kubina, Roloson, Chara. In that order.

Sunday:

- Boston grabs our own erstwhile checker, Shean Donovan. His speed, grit and gap-toothed grin will be missed. His maddening inconsistency and offensive-zone hooking penalties will not.

- Florida grabs Ruslan salei for 4 years/12.1 million. $3mill./year? For SALEI? Most points in a season =20. Best plus/minus = +17. Well...I guess if Kubina's getting 5 mill...

- Nashville inks Jason Arnott to a 5 year/$22.5 million contract. Looks like Nashville's wish to get bigger down the middle made them overpay a tad. Arnott is a career 20-goal scorer who had a big (read: contract) season last year. If he doesn't come close to replicating his 30 goal/70 point numbers in Predators colors, they may be left lamenting the length of this contract.

- The Devils exascerbate their cap concerns by re-signing Patrik Elias to a monstrous 7 year, $42 million deal. He'll be 37 at end of this contract! Now, Elias is an elite first line left-winger...but there are simply too many variables and thus too much risk involved with a contract of this length - if Elias' play suddenly drops off 3 or 4 years from now, which is a possibility (see: Bill Guerin), the Devils will be stuck with this albatross for another 3 or 4 seasons. I can understand the compulsion to re-sign your marquee forward...but come on.

- The Islander's snag the ultimate journeyman Mike Sillinger to a relatively sane 3 year/$6.6 million deal. While I doubt he will have a repeat of his 30 goal season, he will no doubt bring some experience, leadership and stability to the Islanders forward corps. Good signing (can't remember the last time I said that about an Islander's deal).

- Alyn McCauley goes to the Kings. Three years, 6 million, not too bad.

- St. Louis removes Jay McKee from the market with a 4 year/$16 million contract. Jay McKee, who's career high is 5 goals. Good defensive defenseman, great shot-blocker...worth $4 million a year? No. I guess the Columbus Blue Jacket/Adam Foote experience hasn't really taught anyone anything.

Worst Signings of the Day:

Elias, McKee, Arnott.

Monday:

- Atlanta grabs Steve Rucchin. 3 years for about $2.8million a year, the Thrashers add a veteran 2-way presence for a pretty decent price.

- Rangers sign Aaron Ward to a 2 year/$5.5 million contract. Ward is only 33, but already has a ton of post-season experience and should stabilize the Rangers bottom-two pairing. Seems a little pricey at 2.75/year, but considering some of the other d-man deals going down...

- The Blues pick-up Guerin, Weight and Dan Hinote. Heck, they might actually have a NHL caliber roster next year. Weight will return for 3.5 mill./season for two years, while Guerin nabbed a one year contract for some mystery amount. The details surrounding the hinote deal are still fuzzy.

While adding the likes of aging stars Guerin and Weight may seem like a gamble, the Blues had very little to lose and a lot to gain. At the very least, neither of the ex-Oilers are inked for a long period of time, so the risk is minimal.

- Mike Griere and Curtis Brown both sign with the San Jose Sharks. The Griere contract is $1.75 million over 3 years. Both players were probably brought in to fill the checking-line holes left by the departures of Scott Thornton and Alyn McCauley.

- The Islanders sign Witt to a 3 year $(?) contract. Hard to evaluate the quality of this signing right now without the dollar amount. Im sure it's something absurd, given what similar guys like Willie Mitchell and Jay McKee were able to obtain. At least it's "only" a 3 year deal.

Worst Signings of the Day...none.

More to come...