NW Division Breakdown: Edmonton Oilers

With the loss of Chris Pronger and Jaroslav Spacek on the back-end, it looks like it's going to be a year of all-out barn-burner hockey up in the chuck this season. line after line of swift, offensively adept forwards will have to make up for the obvious deficiencies on the blueline (and, potentially, beyond). The Oil are a difficult puzzle to crack in terms of predictions this off-season: if things go right, they could challenge for the division lead. If not, they could be duking it out with the other cellar-dwellars.

The main questions facing this squad include:

- Can the rag-tag Oiler blueline hold up over the season?
- Can Roloson be the #1 guy at 37 years old?
- Can Edmonton's young forwards continue to prove they are legitimate offensive players?

2005/2006 Stuff:

95 points, 8th in the West

249 Goals For (15th)
242 Goals Against (12th)
18.1% PP (12th)
84.1% PK (8th)

Top Scorers:

Ales Hemsky (77 points)
Ryan Smyth (36 goals, 19 PP goals)
Ales Hemsky (58 assists)

Forwards:

Subtractions: Radek Dvorak, Georges Laraque, Rem Murray, Todd Harvey, Mike Peca
Additions: Joffrey Lupul, Petr Sykora, Alexei Mikhnov, MA Pouliot

The Oilers were a middle of the pack scoring team last year and have added a couple of 25-30 goal guys in the off-season. Lupul, who was a key piece in the Pronger deal, is a budding sniper who should bring another 25 goals minimum to the mix. Expect to see him garner top line minutes. Sykora hasn't been the same since leaving the swamp, but he should still be good for at least another 20 goal season. Especially surrounded by so much offensive potential.

The players the Oil lost to free agency were all pretty much checking line fodder. Murray and Harvey are still looking for jobs I believe while Laraque was exiled to the Desert of misfit players. Peca left to retire in Toronto and Dvorak will be plumbing the depths with the Blues this season. Of the departures, Dvorak is probably the only one worth anything. While he'll probably never come close to 30 goals again, he seemed to have utility as a speedy 3rd line checker. He scored 28 points last year, 5 more than Peca, and was a great deal cheaper. As for Michael, he managed just 23 points in 71 games for his 4 million bucks and was a -4. Play-off heroics aside, Im sure most Edmonton fans are pleased to see the back of him.

Perhaps one minor area of concern for the Oilers forwards ranks is the fact that 6 of their forwards enjoyed career seasons last year. Hemsky jumped from 34 points in 03/04 to 77 in 05/06. Horcoff had a similar quantum leap, moving from 33 points in 02/03 and 40 points in 03/04 to 70 points last season. Jarett Stoll, tabbed by many to be a gritty, 2-way centerman, increased his 21 points in 68 games from 2 years ago to an impressive 68 points in his first full season. Ryan Smyth, the bedgraggled, mullet-bearing King of crease-crashing managed 36 markers last year, the second highest of his career behind his 96/97 total of 39. Smyth has only ever cracked the 30 goal plateau once before, back in 00/01. Finally, Fernando Pisani and Raffie Torres also experienced mild increases in their point totals, both garnering 7 more points relative to his best year.

The dark-side-of-the-moon for the Oil faithful is that it's fairly rare to see players best their career stats immediately after setting them. If the above guys can maintain or improve on their offensive stats from last season, Edmonton will be fine. It's rather probable, however, that one of (if not all) Hemsky, Horcoff or Stoll will regress slightly this season. Should Edmonton be able to keep the puck out of the net as well or better than they did last season (big IF) and should Lupul and Sykora prove to be effective barriers against the other guys predicted regression, this MAY not be much of an issue. Perhaps...

The Skinny:

The Oil probably won't struggle to score goals but they aren't going to lead the league either. Lots of young talent and depth with 0 high-end game breakers and the possibility of a couple players taking a step-back, numbers-wise, thrown in to complicate things. Virtually immune to injury issues thanks to depth, however.

Defense:

Subtractions: Chris Pronger, Jaroslav Spacek, Igor Ulanov, Cory Cross, Dick Tarnstrom
Additions: Ladislav Smid, Jan Hejda, Daniel Tjarnqvist

There's a big, sucking black hole on the Oiler's blueline left by the departures of Pronger and Spacek...

how big?

Pronger scored 56 points and played over 2,200 minutes last season. The only player to even approach seeing an equivalent amount of ice was...yup...Jaroslav Spacek at about 1,800 minutes (not all of it was with the Oilers, of course). 3rd and 4th on the club were Staios and Bergeron with 1,712 and 1,591 minutes total respectively. All told, Pronger averaged 28 minutes a night and lead the team in multiple categories such as average SH minutes (5:11/game) and PP minutes (6:40/game) played.

Basically, Pronger was the "anchor" that granted Oiler's forwards "license to soar". He played 7 minutes more per contest than any remaining defender and was the leader in practically every situation on the ice. Im fairly certain that Pronger's presence had something to do with the sudden and impressive jumps in several of the young forwards point totals last season and therefore think his departure will be a significant cause of their impeding regression this season.

Of course, Pronger also had something to do with keeping pucks out of the net as well. Lacking "The Orbs of Power" on the back-end will mean a lot more ice-time for the likes of Staios, Smith and Bergeron this season. Of the three, only Bergeron averaged more than 20 minutes in 05/06, and 4.5 minutes of that was on the PP. The question remains whether guys like Smith and Staios can step up and play top 2 minutes competently for an entire season. Especially since new faces Smid and Hejda may have to be sheltered a bit in light of their lack of experience. Tjarnqvist was a 20 minute/night player over 60 games for the Wild last year, meaning he'll have to step into a top 4 roll at the very least. Keep in mind, however, that Tjarnqvist has never played more than 75 games in 4 seasons and has never been a (+) player yet in his career. He'll have to take a pretty sizable step forward if the Oilers want him to take part in the heavy lifting all year.

Smid and Hejda are the unknown commodities here. By all reports, Smid is an excellent prospect and should develop into a decent player. Course, it's unknown whether he will immediately make significant Ballard/Seabrook/Phaneuf type contributions. If not, youngster Greene and newcomer Hejda may be leaned on for an uncomfortable number of minutes each night...

Course, it all gets REALLY ugly should the likes of Staios or Smith get injured for any length of time.

The Skinny:

The Oilers have to pray for career-type seasons out of their top 4 defenders in order to be competent, defense-wise. It will be hugely beneficial if the likes of Smid and Hejda prove to be adequate NHLer's. If not, any kind of long-term infirmary time for Smith or Staios could prove disasterous. Thanks to their cap space and wealth of forwards, a trade for a d-man mid way through the year is not out of the question.

Goaltending:

Dwayne Roloson played 19 games after the trade deadline in Edmonton colors last year, and managed 8 wins and a 2.42 GAA (.905 SP) in that time. The challenge facing the former Flame this season is to duplicate or improve those numbers over the long haul behind a completely Pronger-less (or even a reasonable facsilime-less) defense corps. Over the course of his NHL tenure, Roloson has avergaed just 36 games/season; the 50 contest 02/03 year being the high water mark. He's 37, just signed the most lucrative contract of his career and has never been a starting goalie. Hmmmm...

To be fair, Roloson does have gawdy career bests (1.88 GAA, 0.933 SP), which suggest some measure of skill. It's notable, though, that he typically hovered around rather mediocre numbers until the 02-04 season(s) with the Wild. Overall, really, his career year looks more like an aberration than a sign of impending stardom.

The Skinny:

If Roloson falters in a Belfourian fashion this year it may well sink the Oil. He's a 37 year old career back-up who will either fight valiantly to prove he's a legit NHL starter or will take his new fat contract and fade into the horizon. Injury and stamina are also a concern.

Conclusion:

Edmonton is an utter enigma heading into the season. Should things go right and their forwards prove immune to regression, their unknown defensemen step up and Roloson defy all odds, Edmonton could be top 5 in the conference. On the other hand, the loss of Pronger and lack of high-end talent on the back-end could well create a shooting gallery that may prove to be beyond Roloson's ability or stamina to handle. Lots of IF's to ponder. Somewhere in the middle, and the Oil battle for 8th spot again.

Prediction:

Part of me thinks Edmonton will out-do the likes of Colorado and Dallas and place 7th in the conference. Then again, the Flames fan part of me is screaming 10th.