The newest debate raging amongst Flame's fan these days is: who will ride the left side on the #1 line come winter?
Course, the assumption is that both Iginla and Tanguay will be the primary fixtures on the top scoring unit. If you take Sutter's assertion that Tangs will be skating down the middle as a Flaming "C" at face value, then the left-winger to complete the trio becomes the lone unknown.
Considering the Flame's depth on the left side:
Kristian Huselius
Marcus Nilson
Jeff Friesen
(Eric Nystrom?)
the natural choice seems to be Kristian Huselius. He's got top-notch stickhandling and puck-distribution skills and is a great producer on the PP. Personally, however, I would prefer to see Juice on the 2nd unit with Damond Langkow and Chuck Kobasew (both de facto 2nd liners since Tanguay and Iginla are the unquestioned #1 guys at those respective positions). As I recall, Langkow and Juice were perhaps the only forward tandem that developed a modicum of chemistry last season. In addition, it would probably be beneficial to spread out the offensive threats across two lines (can't remember the last time I said that about the Flames) rather than concentrate all the firepower on the top unit. So, basically, Im hoping the Huselius-Tanguay-Iginla line is the first PP unit rather than the #1 even-strength unit.
Marcus Nilson? He's a checking line winger. He'll be killing penalties and playing against other #1 lines all year with Stephane Yelle no doubt. So scratch Nilson.
As for Eric Nystrom, Im not even sure he'll make the team...let alone get time with Tangs and Iginla.
Therefore, as far as natural left-wingers go, Jeff Friesen is the last choice. And considering his rather dreadful season last year, it doesn't seem to be a very savory one. For those uninformed few, Friesen played for the Capitals and the Ducks in 05/06 and only managed to accrue a paltry 11 points in 51 GP. That's a 17 point year had he played the full 82 games. Which is just bad. Really, really bad.
Fortunately, if one were to look at Friesen's career thus far, it's probably reasonable to consider last season an abberation - he's scored 20+ goals and 50+ points five times previously. He was drafted in the first round back '94 with the view of becoming a goal-scorer at the NHL level. So there's obviously some ability there. The question remains whether Friesen is actually a worthy reclamation project or just another failed experiment who is swiftly and inexorably sinking into career-4th-liner obscurity.
With that question in mind, I went about investigating Friesen's even-strength and powerplay production efficiency over the 2 seasons prior to 05/06. I figured by treating his most recent performance as the statistical abortion it appears to be, I may be able to determine his true utility as an offensive player...
In 02/03, Friesen played approximately 1259 total minutes, 1042 of which were ES and 207 were PP minutes. That year with the Devils he scored 43 ESP and 8 PPP. His ESP/60 and PPP/60 stats came out to about 2.48 and 2.32, respectively. While the former is superior to most Flames forwards (from the 05/06 season), it's probably a rather median figure in terms of top 6 forwards in the league. The latter number is pretty much pitiful, considering that Jordan Leopold's most recent ESP/60 stat was 3.25. Ouch.
In 03/04, Friesen's offensive production went down. He played similar minutes (1226 total, 1035 ES and 18 PP) but only produced 26 ESP and 11 PPP. That translates to an ESP/60 stat of approx. 1.51 and a PPP/60 stat of 3.53. While his PP proficiency managed to reach that of, say, a servicable 1st unit defenseman, his even-strength proficiency dived to the level of a 4th liner. Hmm...not good.
I figured I might as well average the numbers over the 2 seasons, so I summed the relevant ice-times and offensive stats and generated an "overall" ESP/60 stat of 1.99 and a PPP/60 figure of 2.89.
So, yeah...crappy. Nothing about these figures says "first-line winger" to me. If anything, Friesen seems to be charted on that course to obscurity I mentioned above. I suppose there are some other factors worth considering here - Friesen was stuck behind Patrik Elias on the depth charts in NJ, which no doubt limited (to a degree) the amount he played with "top-line talent". In addition, the Devils were hardly an offensive force from 02-04. In fact, even though Friesen managed a mere 37 points in 03/04, he actually placed 3rd on the Devils behind Gomez and Elias as far as point-getters were concerned (keep in mind, however, that the drop-off was a fairly significant one: Elias scored 81 points and Gomez 70). In addition, I suppose I could have employed Friesen's career numbers for this investigation, although it's questionable how relevant his 62 point performance in 96/97 would be, at least in terms of trying to predict his performance for the 05/06 season - to this end, his more recent numbers probably have more utility.
Overall, there's a good chance Friesen will get some time on the top line, by virtue of his being a left-winger, but he likely won't do a lot while there if the stats are to be trusted. Were I to guess, I'd predict Friesen will eventually be relegated to 3rd/4th line duty with Amonte and Lundmark.
As far as the #1 line goes...I'd personally prefer to see Lombo gunning down the left-wing with Iginla and Tangs (assuming he'll be re-signed, that is). With the Flame's sudden over-flow of centermen (Tanguay, Langkow, Yelle, Lundmark, Ritchie, Lombardi), converting one of the face-off men to the wing will no doubt be a necessity anyhow. Lombo is fast, an excellent passer and showed some chemistry with Iginla in his rookie season (IIRC). And he's left-handed. If the Flames management (ie Sutter) is serious about developing Lombardi into a offensive forward, I can't think of a better way to accomplish that feat than granting him significant ice-time with the likes of Iginla and Tanguay. While re-invigorating the career of a 30 year-old ex-goal-scorer (who appears to have settled into mediocrity) may be a worthwhile experiment...I'd prefer to bank on developing a future sniper in Lombardi with our potentially potent, first-line assests (Iginla, Tamguay) this coming season.
Monday, July 31, 2006
Thursday, July 27, 2006
Where For Art Thou Lombo?
Let's see...
Tanguay signed, Kobasew signed, Huselius signed. Check, check, check. Simon and Donovan let go, Zyuzin acquired. Yelle inked to a couple more years. Everything seems to be in order...
...except the Lombardi situation. WTF is going on there?
It's hard to guess, primarily because there have been precious few details released about the subject. Pretty much all I know is that Lombo didn't accept his qualifying offer. What I *think* that means he is technically a restricted FA - one who is most porbably trying to garner more money from the Flames.
Even with that in mind, it's hard to fathom how this situation has stretched on for so long. Lombo simply doesn't have the statistical leverage to argue for a "financially prohibitive" contract (prohibitive from a club/cap perspective) - he's played 134 NHL games and scored at a rate of 0.41 PPG during that time. Last season, Lombardi managed only 6 goals and 20 assists in 55 games. That's a 39 point season, extrapolated over 82 games. Which is nothing to write home about and hardly worthy of any sort of significant raise.
Perhaps it's the length that is causing the impasse. Because Lombo probably can't argue for anything above $1 million/season, Sutter may be fishing for a longer term contract - say three or four years. Four years at $1 million per would no doubt become a steal should Lombardi actually blossom into a top 6 forward. Course, Lombo's agent knows this and is arguing for the raise + a shorter term contract. Two years max?
I guess the final sticking point could be bonuses/incentives. The agent in question probably realizes that:
1.) His client doesn't have impressive stats and therefore can't demand a big base salary.
2.) The Flames consider him an offensive prospect and hope to develop him into a scoring center.
Therefore, the big money for Matthew may reside in performance incentives. Can't argue for $2 million in base pay? Go for the "$500,000 for 20 goals" and "$750,000 for 60 points" clauses. On the other side of the table, Sutter undoubtedly knows that big performance incentives will drain most of the value on the dollar he'd be gleaning from a player like Lombo: getting "more" for "less" from young, homegrown talent is basically the new way to win in a salary-capped league. Hence the delay. Sutter doesn't want to lock Lombardi in for a few years at a relatively meagre salary figure only to have to pay out "fair value" should he actually perform.
I'm pulling this outta my ass, for anyone who hasn't come to that conclusion already. Hell, maybe all parties concerned went on vacation and agreed to negotiate in August and there's nothing more to it than that. However, going into the off-season I would have assumed Lombardi's to be one of the easier contracts to get negotiated and signed...which leads to the paranoid ramblings above.
Whatever the cause of the delay, I hope he's re-signed soon: $1 million/year, 4 years, (incentives minimal).
Tanguay signed, Kobasew signed, Huselius signed. Check, check, check. Simon and Donovan let go, Zyuzin acquired. Yelle inked to a couple more years. Everything seems to be in order...
...except the Lombardi situation. WTF is going on there?
It's hard to guess, primarily because there have been precious few details released about the subject. Pretty much all I know is that Lombo didn't accept his qualifying offer. What I *think* that means he is technically a restricted FA - one who is most porbably trying to garner more money from the Flames.
Even with that in mind, it's hard to fathom how this situation has stretched on for so long. Lombo simply doesn't have the statistical leverage to argue for a "financially prohibitive" contract (prohibitive from a club/cap perspective) - he's played 134 NHL games and scored at a rate of 0.41 PPG during that time. Last season, Lombardi managed only 6 goals and 20 assists in 55 games. That's a 39 point season, extrapolated over 82 games. Which is nothing to write home about and hardly worthy of any sort of significant raise.
Perhaps it's the length that is causing the impasse. Because Lombo probably can't argue for anything above $1 million/season, Sutter may be fishing for a longer term contract - say three or four years. Four years at $1 million per would no doubt become a steal should Lombardi actually blossom into a top 6 forward. Course, Lombo's agent knows this and is arguing for the raise + a shorter term contract. Two years max?
I guess the final sticking point could be bonuses/incentives. The agent in question probably realizes that:
1.) His client doesn't have impressive stats and therefore can't demand a big base salary.
2.) The Flames consider him an offensive prospect and hope to develop him into a scoring center.
Therefore, the big money for Matthew may reside in performance incentives. Can't argue for $2 million in base pay? Go for the "$500,000 for 20 goals" and "$750,000 for 60 points" clauses. On the other side of the table, Sutter undoubtedly knows that big performance incentives will drain most of the value on the dollar he'd be gleaning from a player like Lombo: getting "more" for "less" from young, homegrown talent is basically the new way to win in a salary-capped league. Hence the delay. Sutter doesn't want to lock Lombardi in for a few years at a relatively meagre salary figure only to have to pay out "fair value" should he actually perform.
I'm pulling this outta my ass, for anyone who hasn't come to that conclusion already. Hell, maybe all parties concerned went on vacation and agreed to negotiate in August and there's nothing more to it than that. However, going into the off-season I would have assumed Lombardi's to be one of the easier contracts to get negotiated and signed...which leads to the paranoid ramblings above.
Whatever the cause of the delay, I hope he's re-signed soon: $1 million/year, 4 years, (incentives minimal).
Friday, July 21, 2006
Tanguay - To Score or Not to Score
I finally got around to compiling some "basic plus" stats for Tanguay - namely the ESP/60 and PPP/60 numbers. I also managed to dredge up the stats for some of the other Av's forwards last year - mainly to place Tanguay in the context of his teammates.
Anyhoo, here are the results:
Observations:
- Overall, Im fairly pleased with the results. Tanguay played more than 930 minutes of even strength hockey last season and, as you can see, he managed to produce points at a pretty significant clip (3.15 points per 60 minutes). He played the third most (forward) ES minutes on the team (behind Sakic and Laperriere) and still managed to be tops in terms of ESP/60. From a Calgary Flames perspective, this is very good news. As you may or may not know from the previous work I put in, the Flames were nothing short of horrible at ES scoring in 05/06. Calgary's top (high minutes) player, Jarome Iginla, only scored at a rate of 1.80/60 minutes last year: that's barely over half of Tanguay's number! Hell, even Ian Laperriere did better than Jarome! Clearly, the Flames needed some help in this department. While there are probably some team/systemic issues that contributed to Calgary's weak ESP stats, adding the top ESP player from the Avs is still a big step in the right direction.
- The PPP/60 results were a little surprising, largely due to the number Andrew Brunette managed to put up. It's not like he benefitted from a couple of 2nd assists on the occasional PP shift either - Brunette played 310 PP minutes, good for 4th most among forwards. As for Tanguay, he played 354 minutes (2nd behind Sakics 438) and managed to generate about 4.92 points/60 minutes played. Comparison-wise, Tanguay's PPP/60 and PP minutes played stats are almost identical to Damond Langkow's numbers from last season (4.94 PPP/60, 352 minutes). Between the two teams overall, the rookie Marek Svatos managed to score the highest in terms of powerplay efficiency (5.62 PPP/60), while Kristian Huselius came in a close second (5.54 PPP/60). Svatos played about 70 less minutes less than Juice on the PP thanks to his injury shortened season, but it's hard to say whether that would make a huge difference (I have no interest in trying to calculate variance and statistical significance...sorry).
As I mentioned, Im pleased with the results. Tanguay's main strength, ES production, was the Flame's primary area of weakness last season. The challenge, or course, will be to adequately harnass the potential for more ES goals that Tanguay's addition brings. He obviously CAN get the job done, but the question remains WILL HE be able to do it under the relatively "offensively oppressive" Flames system...
Anyhoo, here are the results:
Observations:
- Overall, Im fairly pleased with the results. Tanguay played more than 930 minutes of even strength hockey last season and, as you can see, he managed to produce points at a pretty significant clip (3.15 points per 60 minutes). He played the third most (forward) ES minutes on the team (behind Sakic and Laperriere) and still managed to be tops in terms of ESP/60. From a Calgary Flames perspective, this is very good news. As you may or may not know from the previous work I put in, the Flames were nothing short of horrible at ES scoring in 05/06. Calgary's top (high minutes) player, Jarome Iginla, only scored at a rate of 1.80/60 minutes last year: that's barely over half of Tanguay's number! Hell, even Ian Laperriere did better than Jarome! Clearly, the Flames needed some help in this department. While there are probably some team/systemic issues that contributed to Calgary's weak ESP stats, adding the top ESP player from the Avs is still a big step in the right direction.
- The PPP/60 results were a little surprising, largely due to the number Andrew Brunette managed to put up. It's not like he benefitted from a couple of 2nd assists on the occasional PP shift either - Brunette played 310 PP minutes, good for 4th most among forwards. As for Tanguay, he played 354 minutes (2nd behind Sakics 438) and managed to generate about 4.92 points/60 minutes played. Comparison-wise, Tanguay's PPP/60 and PP minutes played stats are almost identical to Damond Langkow's numbers from last season (4.94 PPP/60, 352 minutes). Between the two teams overall, the rookie Marek Svatos managed to score the highest in terms of powerplay efficiency (5.62 PPP/60), while Kristian Huselius came in a close second (5.54 PPP/60). Svatos played about 70 less minutes less than Juice on the PP thanks to his injury shortened season, but it's hard to say whether that would make a huge difference (I have no interest in trying to calculate variance and statistical significance...sorry).
As I mentioned, Im pleased with the results. Tanguay's main strength, ES production, was the Flame's primary area of weakness last season. The challenge, or course, will be to adequately harnass the potential for more ES goals that Tanguay's addition brings. He obviously CAN get the job done, but the question remains WILL HE be able to do it under the relatively "offensively oppressive" Flames system...
Wednesday, July 19, 2006
Nerding Out...Cont'd
So I kept one of my promises from this recent post and calculated the 05/06 PPP/60 (Power Play Points per 60 minutes) for each Flames player.
Here are the results:
Observations:
- Andrew Ference was surprisingly efficient at producing points with the man advantage. While his number is higher than The Dion's, keep in mind that he only played about 219 PP minutes last season - significantly less than Phaneuf's 436 minutes. In fact, if memory serves, Ference gathered a great deal of his powerplay points feeding Phaneuf passes while Hamrlik was down with injury. That being said, it seems like he should probably be granted some significant PP time next season, with or without Hamrlik in the line-up.
- Kristian Huselius is, apparently, The Man on the powerplay. At least as far as the forwards are concerned (don't want to anger The Dion). He played the third most minutes of any forward on the PP (next to Iginla and Langkow) and still managed to put up a pretty significant number. I think we know who'll be flanking Tanguay and Iginla on the first unit next year. At least, we know who should be.
- Hamrlik was brought in last summer with the hopes he'd be an offensive weapon on the point during the man advantage. Didn't really happen. Even though he was injured a great deal, Hamrlik played on the PP slightly more than Ference (251 minutes vs. 219). but managed to be less efficient at producing points. Hopefully this coming season Hammer can
a.) stay healthy and
b.) produce at a better rate on the PP.
Especially for his $3.5 million. Hell, even Robyn Regehr, he of the "defensive defenseman" persuasion produced at an equivalent rate. For now, I guess I can give Hamrlik the benefit of the doubt and assume his various injuries were impeding his offensive abilities. Although, it would be nice to see Roman's career PPP/60 stat - maybe it's the expectations about Hamrlik's production that are out of line?
- Surprisingly, Langkow was slightly better than Iginla in this department last year. Although, I don't know how much significantly different 4.94 is from 4.21 (keep in mind, Langkow played almost 100 minutes less than Jarome).
- Stephane Yelle: better than Kobasew, Amonte and Lombardi on the PP? Only thanks to a small sample size...he played a mere 60 minutes 5on4 last season. Should Yelle ever get a regular PP shift (he won't), expect that number to go WAY down.
- Jordan Leopold was pretty bad in this department too last year. Course, you already know that.
As useless as this information seems to be (Leopold isn't even a Flame anymore), it might be interesting for comparison purposes once hockey gets going again. With the apparent promise of more offense next season, it'll be worthwhile to examine each player's performance in light of this past year's stats.
Next up...Tanguay, Friesen and Zyuzin ESP and PPP.
Here are the results:
Observations:
- Andrew Ference was surprisingly efficient at producing points with the man advantage. While his number is higher than The Dion's, keep in mind that he only played about 219 PP minutes last season - significantly less than Phaneuf's 436 minutes. In fact, if memory serves, Ference gathered a great deal of his powerplay points feeding Phaneuf passes while Hamrlik was down with injury. That being said, it seems like he should probably be granted some significant PP time next season, with or without Hamrlik in the line-up.
- Kristian Huselius is, apparently, The Man on the powerplay. At least as far as the forwards are concerned (don't want to anger The Dion). He played the third most minutes of any forward on the PP (next to Iginla and Langkow) and still managed to put up a pretty significant number. I think we know who'll be flanking Tanguay and Iginla on the first unit next year. At least, we know who should be.
- Hamrlik was brought in last summer with the hopes he'd be an offensive weapon on the point during the man advantage. Didn't really happen. Even though he was injured a great deal, Hamrlik played on the PP slightly more than Ference (251 minutes vs. 219). but managed to be less efficient at producing points. Hopefully this coming season Hammer can
a.) stay healthy and
b.) produce at a better rate on the PP.
Especially for his $3.5 million. Hell, even Robyn Regehr, he of the "defensive defenseman" persuasion produced at an equivalent rate. For now, I guess I can give Hamrlik the benefit of the doubt and assume his various injuries were impeding his offensive abilities. Although, it would be nice to see Roman's career PPP/60 stat - maybe it's the expectations about Hamrlik's production that are out of line?
- Surprisingly, Langkow was slightly better than Iginla in this department last year. Although, I don't know how much significantly different 4.94 is from 4.21 (keep in mind, Langkow played almost 100 minutes less than Jarome).
- Stephane Yelle: better than Kobasew, Amonte and Lombardi on the PP? Only thanks to a small sample size...he played a mere 60 minutes 5on4 last season. Should Yelle ever get a regular PP shift (he won't), expect that number to go WAY down.
- Jordan Leopold was pretty bad in this department too last year. Course, you already know that.
As useless as this information seems to be (Leopold isn't even a Flame anymore), it might be interesting for comparison purposes once hockey gets going again. With the apparent promise of more offense next season, it'll be worthwhile to examine each player's performance in light of this past year's stats.
Next up...Tanguay, Friesen and Zyuzin ESP and PPP.
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
Nerding Out
Pursuant to this post over at Battle of Alberta, I figured I'd try my hand at conjuring some "basic plus" stats for Calgary players from the previous regular season.
I decided that my first, trembling step into statistical geekdom would be to do some ESP/60 (even strength points produced per 60 minutes worth of ice-time) . To that end, I went over to nhl.com and simply copied the available ice-time stats into an excel spreadsheet. Observe:
The data was sorted according to total ice-time over the course of the year from most to least (yup, that's Dion Phaneuf leading the team). Also included in the dataset (but outside of the screencapture to the left) was total PP and SH ice-time as well as averaged ES, PP and SH ice-time per game.
Some items of interest before we proceed: Jordan Leopold was 3rd on the team in terms of total ice-time, even though he only played 74 games. While his ESP/60 stat is abysmal (as you will see below), it should be noted that his was a fairly significant loss, defensive-minutes-wise, on the back-end. Let's hope that the Zyuzin can step in and adequately fill that hole next year...
Anyways, back on track. Next, I rounded the total even-strenght ice-time for each player to the nearest minute. While this may skew the results a tiny bit, the degree of error is probably negligible.
After gathering the ice-time info, I transcribed all of the ES, PP and SH point totals for each player into the speadsheet. The final step was to set-up the ol' formula bar to calculate ESP/60 employing the data mentioned.
The results:
The Observations:
- Some players, like Germyn, Giordano, Ritchie and Macdonald were excluded. They didn't play enough minutes nor gather enough points to generate any kind of significant number.
- Lundmark, Leclerc and Lombardi's ESP/60 numbers are somewhat inflated due to (relatively) small sample size. They each played only 437, 514 and 566 ES minutes repsectively. In addition, Mike Leclerc's ESP stat is probably totally irrelevant in terms of production as a Flame: he only played 15 of his 50 games in Calgary silks and produced a mere 5 points in that time. Some encouragement may be gleaned from both Lombardi and Lundmark's decent numbers, though. Especially considering that Lundmark scored 10 points in 12 games with Calgary, despite only averaging about 8-10 minutes per game. It's hard to say how much their numbers would dip if they were consistently given more minutes against harder (say, top 2 defensemen) opposition.
- Chris Simon was actually better at producing at ES than I expected. He didn't get a lot of ice-time, 636 minutes in 72 games, which likely speaks to his utility as an all around player.
- Despite his relatively sub-par season, Jarome was still the top ES producer (for a high minutes player) on the team. I would be interested to see how this compared to other top point-getters across the league (not too favorably I would guess).
- Dion Phanuef was the best ES scoring defenseman, despite getting most of his points on the PP (although his number is still below the likes of Stephane Yelle).
- Shean Donovan and Juice were actually pretty comparable in terms of production at ES. Keep in mind, though, that Huselius had a terrible start to the year in Florida (8 points in 24 GP). In addition, Huselius gathered more than half of his points on the PP (28 of 47).
- As we all knew, Jordan Leopold had a horrendous season, offensively (His PP stats are only marginally better). I expect him to be at least twice as good (0.76 ESP/60) with Colorado next season.
I'll look into doing up some ESP numbers for Tanguay (if I feel like it) in the near future. It'll be interesting to see how he compares - course his ESP production on a team like Colorado will undoubtedly be a little chubby as compared to the Flame's roster. I suppose I could interpret his ESP number in the context of the entire avalanche team...
...*sigh* this is a lot of work.
In the meantime, I may put together some PPP/60 for Flames players from last year. Or... I may just revert to linking to tsn.ca reports and making glib comments. I guess we'll see.
I decided that my first, trembling step into statistical geekdom would be to do some ESP/60 (even strength points produced per 60 minutes worth of ice-time) . To that end, I went over to nhl.com and simply copied the available ice-time stats into an excel spreadsheet. Observe:
The data was sorted according to total ice-time over the course of the year from most to least (yup, that's Dion Phaneuf leading the team). Also included in the dataset (but outside of the screencapture to the left) was total PP and SH ice-time as well as averaged ES, PP and SH ice-time per game.Some items of interest before we proceed: Jordan Leopold was 3rd on the team in terms of total ice-time, even though he only played 74 games. While his ESP/60 stat is abysmal (as you will see below), it should be noted that his was a fairly significant loss, defensive-minutes-wise, on the back-end. Let's hope that the Zyuzin can step in and adequately fill that hole next year...
Anyways, back on track. Next, I rounded the total even-strenght ice-time for each player to the nearest minute. While this may skew the results a tiny bit, the degree of error is probably negligible.
After gathering the ice-time info, I transcribed all of the ES, PP and SH point totals for each player into the speadsheet. The final step was to set-up the ol' formula bar to calculate ESP/60 employing the data mentioned.
The results:
The Observations:- Some players, like Germyn, Giordano, Ritchie and Macdonald were excluded. They didn't play enough minutes nor gather enough points to generate any kind of significant number.
- Lundmark, Leclerc and Lombardi's ESP/60 numbers are somewhat inflated due to (relatively) small sample size. They each played only 437, 514 and 566 ES minutes repsectively. In addition, Mike Leclerc's ESP stat is probably totally irrelevant in terms of production as a Flame: he only played 15 of his 50 games in Calgary silks and produced a mere 5 points in that time. Some encouragement may be gleaned from both Lombardi and Lundmark's decent numbers, though. Especially considering that Lundmark scored 10 points in 12 games with Calgary, despite only averaging about 8-10 minutes per game. It's hard to say how much their numbers would dip if they were consistently given more minutes against harder (say, top 2 defensemen) opposition.
- Chris Simon was actually better at producing at ES than I expected. He didn't get a lot of ice-time, 636 minutes in 72 games, which likely speaks to his utility as an all around player.
- Despite his relatively sub-par season, Jarome was still the top ES producer (for a high minutes player) on the team. I would be interested to see how this compared to other top point-getters across the league (not too favorably I would guess).
- Dion Phanuef was the best ES scoring defenseman, despite getting most of his points on the PP (although his number is still below the likes of Stephane Yelle).
- Shean Donovan and Juice were actually pretty comparable in terms of production at ES. Keep in mind, though, that Huselius had a terrible start to the year in Florida (8 points in 24 GP). In addition, Huselius gathered more than half of his points on the PP (28 of 47).
- As we all knew, Jordan Leopold had a horrendous season, offensively (His PP stats are only marginally better). I expect him to be at least twice as good (0.76 ESP/60) with Colorado next season.
I'll look into doing up some ESP numbers for Tanguay (if I feel like it) in the near future. It'll be interesting to see how he compares - course his ESP production on a team like Colorado will undoubtedly be a little chubby as compared to the Flame's roster. I suppose I could interpret his ESP number in the context of the entire avalanche team...
...*sigh* this is a lot of work.
In the meantime, I may put together some PPP/60 for Flames players from last year. Or... I may just revert to linking to tsn.ca reports and making glib comments. I guess we'll see.
Friday, July 14, 2006
Jerseys
Chunkymoose copy and paste this into your profile:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/596/1066/200/chunky_moose.jpg
Madmac copy and paste this into your profile:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/596/1066/200/madmac.jpg
Metrognome copy and paste this into your profile:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/596/1066/200/metrognome_78.jpg
Cantaloupehalves Copy and paste this into your profile:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/596/1066/200/cantaloupe.jpg
Thursday, July 13, 2006
Chasing Gomez
Time for some (non-erotic) fantasizing...
So everyone knows the New Jersey Devils are in cap trouble. And I mean BIG TIME cap trouble. According to tsn, their current signed roster looks like:
- Elias - 7.5
- Brodeur - 5.2
- Rafalski - 4.2
- Madden - 3.893
- Malakhov - 3.6
- Mogiliny - 3.5
- White - 3
- Langenbrunner - 2.8
- McGillis - 2.2
- Brylin - 1.52
- Matvichuk - 1.368
- Lukowich - 1
- Wiemer - .950
- 5 guys ranging from .836 - .450
-----------------------------------------
Total - $43.93 million
Notable RFA's left to sign: Scott Gomez (30 goals, 80 points last season) and Brian Gionta (48 goals, 90 points last season).
Ouch. I can't fathom how galling it must be for ol' Lou to have those $7 million anchors, Malakhov and Mogilny, dragging down the payroll. Talk about learning a lesson the hard way.
Anyways, I digress. Assuming tsn's numbers are completely correct (which usually they aren't, but let's pretend) what we have here is a team that:
1.) Has (once they re-sign him) a young, skilled center with "Gretzky-like vision" who has to play with "skilled linemates to be effective". And...
2.) A desperate need to dump salary.
Hmmm. Seems like a fit to me. Granted, Gomez has been on Flames fan's wishlists for a long time - his swift skating and passing abilities make him a natural fit to center Iginla. Of course, New Jersey has had little reason to trade him.
Until now.
Already bumping against the cap ceiling, the Devils have approximately $6-7 million/year in potential contracts for RFA's Gomez and Gionta . If not more. Considering the kind of stats both players put up in 05/06, $6 million combined for each is a conservative estimate.
So what is a Lou to do?
He can't get rid of the Mogilny or Malakhov abortions. He's stuck with them. Nor can he trade Brodeur - the Devils don't have another starter waiting in the wings. The lumbering dinosaur of a contract he gave to Elias dissaudes any deals there. And he'd have to get rid of a lot of Wiemers, Brylins and Lukowichs to make any sort of significant dent in the payroll.
Here's my suggestion (ie fantasy):
Trade Rafalski to Edmonton for a much cheaper blueliner (MA Bergeron?) and some prospects/picks. Edmonton has a lot of cap space, a desperate need for a top minute d-man and bunch of "potentials" garnered from the Pronger trade. The move gets him a 14 goal scorer on the blueline, some future assets and frees up more than $3 million in cap space (Rafalski's 4.2 - Bergeron's .969).
Next, sign Gomez to something like a $4 million/year contract and trade him to...wait for it...CALGARY for Mat. Lombardi+prospect/picks. This way, Lou gets back a CHEAP, young, offensive center who can play at the NHL level right away, more future assets and conserves most of the space he created by dumping Rafalski...which, of course, would leave him with enough room to re-sign Gionta at the $3 million/year he'll be asking for. Or near enough, at least. Another minor move - say dealing someone like a Sergei Brylin to Washington for a 3rd rounder - would probably need to happen to make this scenario at all workable. But, hey, it's possible right? Right??
So does this actually work from a Calgary Flames perspective? Let's see...
The acquisition of Gomez would give Calgary a fairly formidable group of top 6 forwards:
Tanguay - Gomez - Iginla
Huselius - Langkow - Kobasew
Drool-inducing, no? Especially for offense-starved Flames fans.
In addition, this kind of move would help de-clutter all the "young potential 2nd/3rd line centers" in the Flame's cupboard. With Langkow, Lundmark and Lombardi already in the NHL and prospects Boyd, Seitsonen, Ryder and the recently signed Russian Olympian Andrei Tarathukin in the system (plus the 4+ centers Calgary drafted this summer), the team is quickly heading towards a big ol' cluster-eff-log-jam down the middle.
As far as cap issues go, a $4 million/year Gomez would probably push the Flames to the limit. The fantasy gets (even more) unlikely at this point without dumping some salary - say a Rhett Warrener or Roman Hamrlik for a draft pick or two.
Probable? No. Sutter loves his defensive depth. I think he literally lies awake in the middle of the night, sweating and anxious, at the thought of having the likes of Mark Giordano patrolling the blueline on a regular basis.
To make the fantasy even more convoluted, I may as well ask if it would be worth giving up a Hamrlik (and Lombardi) for a Gomez. Would it? Would the potential for an injection of 70-80 points and a more diversified offensive attack off-set the effects of having a greater amount of quality shots and chances (and thus, more goals) against?
I can honestly say "yes", with the confidence of man that cheers for a team that has the best goaltender in hockey. Probably above and beyond anyone else in the league, the Flames could stand to take a few more risks, in terms of defensive personnel, without suffering dire consequences. The resualtant equation looks like:
(Kipper in net+Gomez out front+young defenseman on the back-end) - (Lombardi+future assets+Hamrlik) = net gain in goal differential.
By my math at least. Not that I was ever that great at math.
Anyways, that's my fantasy. Knowing that there are tons of GM's looking at the NJ situation and spinning out similar scenario's in their heads pretty much assures that something like this won't actually happen (for Calgary). And, like my earlier Elias musings, I don't really think this has much grounding in reality.
Sure is fun to consider though.
So everyone knows the New Jersey Devils are in cap trouble. And I mean BIG TIME cap trouble. According to tsn, their current signed roster looks like:
- Elias - 7.5
- Brodeur - 5.2
- Rafalski - 4.2
- Madden - 3.893
- Malakhov - 3.6
- Mogiliny - 3.5
- White - 3
- Langenbrunner - 2.8
- McGillis - 2.2
- Brylin - 1.52
- Matvichuk - 1.368
- Lukowich - 1
- Wiemer - .950
- 5 guys ranging from .836 - .450
-----------------------------------------
Total - $43.93 million
Notable RFA's left to sign: Scott Gomez (30 goals, 80 points last season) and Brian Gionta (48 goals, 90 points last season).
Ouch. I can't fathom how galling it must be for ol' Lou to have those $7 million anchors, Malakhov and Mogilny, dragging down the payroll. Talk about learning a lesson the hard way.
Anyways, I digress. Assuming tsn's numbers are completely correct (which usually they aren't, but let's pretend) what we have here is a team that:
1.) Has (once they re-sign him) a young, skilled center with "Gretzky-like vision" who has to play with "skilled linemates to be effective". And...
2.) A desperate need to dump salary.
Hmmm. Seems like a fit to me. Granted, Gomez has been on Flames fan's wishlists for a long time - his swift skating and passing abilities make him a natural fit to center Iginla. Of course, New Jersey has had little reason to trade him.
Until now.
Already bumping against the cap ceiling, the Devils have approximately $6-7 million/year in potential contracts for RFA's Gomez and Gionta . If not more. Considering the kind of stats both players put up in 05/06, $6 million combined for each is a conservative estimate.
So what is a Lou to do?
He can't get rid of the Mogilny or Malakhov abortions. He's stuck with them. Nor can he trade Brodeur - the Devils don't have another starter waiting in the wings. The lumbering dinosaur of a contract he gave to Elias dissaudes any deals there. And he'd have to get rid of a lot of Wiemers, Brylins and Lukowichs to make any sort of significant dent in the payroll.
Here's my suggestion (ie fantasy):
Trade Rafalski to Edmonton for a much cheaper blueliner (MA Bergeron?) and some prospects/picks. Edmonton has a lot of cap space, a desperate need for a top minute d-man and bunch of "potentials" garnered from the Pronger trade. The move gets him a 14 goal scorer on the blueline, some future assets and frees up more than $3 million in cap space (Rafalski's 4.2 - Bergeron's .969).
Next, sign Gomez to something like a $4 million/year contract and trade him to...wait for it...CALGARY for Mat. Lombardi+prospect/picks. This way, Lou gets back a CHEAP, young, offensive center who can play at the NHL level right away, more future assets and conserves most of the space he created by dumping Rafalski...which, of course, would leave him with enough room to re-sign Gionta at the $3 million/year he'll be asking for. Or near enough, at least. Another minor move - say dealing someone like a Sergei Brylin to Washington for a 3rd rounder - would probably need to happen to make this scenario at all workable. But, hey, it's possible right? Right??
So does this actually work from a Calgary Flames perspective? Let's see...
The acquisition of Gomez would give Calgary a fairly formidable group of top 6 forwards:
Tanguay - Gomez - Iginla
Huselius - Langkow - Kobasew
Drool-inducing, no? Especially for offense-starved Flames fans.
In addition, this kind of move would help de-clutter all the "young potential 2nd/3rd line centers" in the Flame's cupboard. With Langkow, Lundmark and Lombardi already in the NHL and prospects Boyd, Seitsonen, Ryder and the recently signed Russian Olympian Andrei Tarathukin in the system (plus the 4+ centers Calgary drafted this summer), the team is quickly heading towards a big ol' cluster-eff-log-jam down the middle.
As far as cap issues go, a $4 million/year Gomez would probably push the Flames to the limit. The fantasy gets (even more) unlikely at this point without dumping some salary - say a Rhett Warrener or Roman Hamrlik for a draft pick or two.
Probable? No. Sutter loves his defensive depth. I think he literally lies awake in the middle of the night, sweating and anxious, at the thought of having the likes of Mark Giordano patrolling the blueline on a regular basis.
To make the fantasy even more convoluted, I may as well ask if it would be worth giving up a Hamrlik (and Lombardi) for a Gomez. Would it? Would the potential for an injection of 70-80 points and a more diversified offensive attack off-set the effects of having a greater amount of quality shots and chances (and thus, more goals) against?
I can honestly say "yes", with the confidence of man that cheers for a team that has the best goaltender in hockey. Probably above and beyond anyone else in the league, the Flames could stand to take a few more risks, in terms of defensive personnel, without suffering dire consequences. The resualtant equation looks like:
(Kipper in net+Gomez out front+young defenseman on the back-end) - (Lombardi+future assets+Hamrlik) = net gain in goal differential.
By my math at least. Not that I was ever that great at math.
Anyways, that's my fantasy. Knowing that there are tons of GM's looking at the NJ situation and spinning out similar scenario's in their heads pretty much assures that something like this won't actually happen (for Calgary). And, like my earlier Elias musings, I don't really think this has much grounding in reality.
Sure is fun to consider though.
Monday, July 10, 2006
The Fall of the House of Legace and Other Oddities
It's almost become worthy of a carnival freakshow - purusing NHL headlines on TSN everyday makes one wonder what odd, grotesque or disturbing bit of news will pop up next. For instance:
- The latest menage-et-trade between Ottawa, Chicago and San Jose yielded more than one headscratcher. The deal went like this - Chicago traded Mark Bell to San Jose for Tom Priessing and Josh Hennessy (a prospect), who then turned around and flipped those players in a package (plus another prospect and a pick) to Ottawa for a return of Martin Havlat and Brian Smolinski.
First oddity - why is San Jose trading defensemen? As of right now they have 3 under contract: youngster Matt Carle, Scott Hannan and Kyle McLaren. At least with Priessing they had a relatively comfortable top 4 on the back-end. Now? Three guys left and a waning UFA list. While the Sharks still have a tradable asset in Nabokov to move for some help on the blueline, the market doesn't seem to be working in their favor currently - quality defensemen are the hottest thing going (see contracts for: Chara, Jovo, Redden, Kubina, Corvo, Johnsson, etc.) while there's more "supply" than "demand" for goaltenders (Just ask Manny Legace). So while Mark Bell might help the Shark's secondary attack, I'm not sure it was worth trimming an already thin defense corps. to land him.
Second oddity - There are reports that Martin Havlat has signed a 3 year, $18 million deal with the Hawks. Let's be clear here - Havlat has tremendous offensive upside and is an exciting young sniper...but, come on, 6 big bills per season!! For Havlat!? He's never played more than 72 games in a year and has never scored more than 31 goals! How he manages to garner franchise player type money is beyond me.
And I guess we can surmise that winning and/or playing in a quality organization were NOT the things Havlat was going to pursue in what would have been his UFA summer next year. His reluctance to make a longer-term commitment coupled with his absurd Blackhawkian-pay-day make this deal intelligible from a Senator standpoint. With players like Spezza, Alfreddson, Heatley and Redden already on the roster, shedding Havlat's injury-prone-money-grubbing-opponent-kicking ass makes a lot of sense. In addition, Ottawa got the Hawks to take on Smolinski's useless presence (and salary figure) in the deal as well. Not to mention getting a young up-and-comer like Priessing to boot.
Score. At least SOMEONE'S doing something right.
- The glut of goaltenders on the market notwithstanding, it's probably tough for some people to comprehend how Manny Legace hasn't been aggressively pursued yet. His stats from last season are stellar: 2.19 GAA (good for 3rd in the league), 0.915 SP (8th) had 7 shut-outs and a 37-8-3-7 record. Granted, one has to consider that Legace played for the best regular season team in the league, in the weakest division. However, in the last 4 seasons with the Red Wings, Legace's SP has never been lower than 0.911 and his GAA has never plunged below 2.42. In the last 2 seasons, Legace has played 92 games (5, 230 minues) and has lost only 18 of them (in regulation). Surely, Manny deserves a moderate amount of credit for numbers this impressive - team and division aside. At 33 years old he must be worth, at the very LEAST, a one year go 'round. Especially when ancient fossils like Hasek, Belfour and Roloson are still haunting the league's creases.
So what's wrong with Manny? It can't be simply the strong team/weak division issue. Well, if this article is to be believed, it was Legace's play-off performance that dissuaded the Red Wings from signing him (and, therefore, anyone else as well). While Legace was less than Stellar this past April, the team in front of him was decidedly less than good as well...which makes me think it's MORE than just a shakey 7 games that is keeping GM's away from the Legace Well - keep in mind that JFJ decided to trade for Andrew Raycroft: a deal that won him probably the worst tender in the NHL last season AND cost him a top-notch propsect in Rask.
Aside from JFJ's incompetence, there's gotta more to it. On the face of it, the decision to do that deal for Raycroft when Legace could have been had for nothing looks absurd to even the most mentally challenged hockey fan...
I think one of the best clues as to why ML has become a social pariah can be found in this post from Abel to Yzerman, aptly dubbed "Out of the Mouth of Legace". Anyone who followed the Red Wings/Oilers (or read the above blog during that time) can probably attest to the very public and almost juvenile mental collapse of Legace during the series. "I feel like going out and hanging myself" was Manny's response to being upset in game 7. Hmmm...not the kind of thing that inspires confidence in a teammate. Kinda sounds like the twitchy, anxious, bound-to-die character that inhabits most action/horror flicks - you know, like Bill Paxton's sissy-army-guy from Aliens: "Game over man! GAME OVER!!"
A later post from Abel to Yzerman says as much: it wasn't Legace's play that soured his teammates and coaches on him - it was his attitude. And sadly for Manny THAT may be a lot harder thing for prospective employers to get over than, say, a season of bad stats...
- On a somewhat related note, there's indications that Ken Holland is getting ready to sign Ed Belfour. Let's see...very old, very injury prone and coming off a very bad year. Uh...with options like JS Giguere and Nabokov to be had via trade one has to wonder what Holland is thinking. Didn't he take note of the Hasek/Ottawa fiasco? It's a move so baffling and idiotic, from what seems to be a sensible GM, it almost smacks of some shady, "blackmaily"-type dealings. Does Belfour have some Holland+five iron+goat pictures in his possession? Or maybe Eddie simply bribed Ken with an offer he couldn't refuse? Whatever the reason, Im fairly certain that the Eagle (should he definitively land in Detroit) will prove to be the Red Wings undoing next season.
- The latest menage-et-trade between Ottawa, Chicago and San Jose yielded more than one headscratcher. The deal went like this - Chicago traded Mark Bell to San Jose for Tom Priessing and Josh Hennessy (a prospect), who then turned around and flipped those players in a package (plus another prospect and a pick) to Ottawa for a return of Martin Havlat and Brian Smolinski.
First oddity - why is San Jose trading defensemen? As of right now they have 3 under contract: youngster Matt Carle, Scott Hannan and Kyle McLaren. At least with Priessing they had a relatively comfortable top 4 on the back-end. Now? Three guys left and a waning UFA list. While the Sharks still have a tradable asset in Nabokov to move for some help on the blueline, the market doesn't seem to be working in their favor currently - quality defensemen are the hottest thing going (see contracts for: Chara, Jovo, Redden, Kubina, Corvo, Johnsson, etc.) while there's more "supply" than "demand" for goaltenders (Just ask Manny Legace). So while Mark Bell might help the Shark's secondary attack, I'm not sure it was worth trimming an already thin defense corps. to land him.
Second oddity - There are reports that Martin Havlat has signed a 3 year, $18 million deal with the Hawks. Let's be clear here - Havlat has tremendous offensive upside and is an exciting young sniper...but, come on, 6 big bills per season!! For Havlat!? He's never played more than 72 games in a year and has never scored more than 31 goals! How he manages to garner franchise player type money is beyond me.
And I guess we can surmise that winning and/or playing in a quality organization were NOT the things Havlat was going to pursue in what would have been his UFA summer next year. His reluctance to make a longer-term commitment coupled with his absurd Blackhawkian-pay-day make this deal intelligible from a Senator standpoint. With players like Spezza, Alfreddson, Heatley and Redden already on the roster, shedding Havlat's injury-prone-money-grubbing-opponent-kicking ass makes a lot of sense. In addition, Ottawa got the Hawks to take on Smolinski's useless presence (and salary figure) in the deal as well. Not to mention getting a young up-and-comer like Priessing to boot.
Score. At least SOMEONE'S doing something right.
- The glut of goaltenders on the market notwithstanding, it's probably tough for some people to comprehend how Manny Legace hasn't been aggressively pursued yet. His stats from last season are stellar: 2.19 GAA (good for 3rd in the league), 0.915 SP (8th) had 7 shut-outs and a 37-8-3-7 record. Granted, one has to consider that Legace played for the best regular season team in the league, in the weakest division. However, in the last 4 seasons with the Red Wings, Legace's SP has never been lower than 0.911 and his GAA has never plunged below 2.42. In the last 2 seasons, Legace has played 92 games (5, 230 minues) and has lost only 18 of them (in regulation). Surely, Manny deserves a moderate amount of credit for numbers this impressive - team and division aside. At 33 years old he must be worth, at the very LEAST, a one year go 'round. Especially when ancient fossils like Hasek, Belfour and Roloson are still haunting the league's creases.
So what's wrong with Manny? It can't be simply the strong team/weak division issue. Well, if this article is to be believed, it was Legace's play-off performance that dissuaded the Red Wings from signing him (and, therefore, anyone else as well). While Legace was less than Stellar this past April, the team in front of him was decidedly less than good as well...which makes me think it's MORE than just a shakey 7 games that is keeping GM's away from the Legace Well - keep in mind that JFJ decided to trade for Andrew Raycroft: a deal that won him probably the worst tender in the NHL last season AND cost him a top-notch propsect in Rask.
Aside from JFJ's incompetence, there's gotta more to it. On the face of it, the decision to do that deal for Raycroft when Legace could have been had for nothing looks absurd to even the most mentally challenged hockey fan...
I think one of the best clues as to why ML has become a social pariah can be found in this post from Abel to Yzerman, aptly dubbed "Out of the Mouth of Legace". Anyone who followed the Red Wings/Oilers (or read the above blog during that time) can probably attest to the very public and almost juvenile mental collapse of Legace during the series. "I feel like going out and hanging myself" was Manny's response to being upset in game 7. Hmmm...not the kind of thing that inspires confidence in a teammate. Kinda sounds like the twitchy, anxious, bound-to-die character that inhabits most action/horror flicks - you know, like Bill Paxton's sissy-army-guy from Aliens: "Game over man! GAME OVER!!"
A later post from Abel to Yzerman says as much: it wasn't Legace's play that soured his teammates and coaches on him - it was his attitude. And sadly for Manny THAT may be a lot harder thing for prospective employers to get over than, say, a season of bad stats...
- On a somewhat related note, there's indications that Ken Holland is getting ready to sign Ed Belfour. Let's see...very old, very injury prone and coming off a very bad year. Uh...with options like JS Giguere and Nabokov to be had via trade one has to wonder what Holland is thinking. Didn't he take note of the Hasek/Ottawa fiasco? It's a move so baffling and idiotic, from what seems to be a sensible GM, it almost smacks of some shady, "blackmaily"-type dealings. Does Belfour have some Holland+five iron+goat pictures in his possession? Or maybe Eddie simply bribed Ken with an offer he couldn't refuse? Whatever the reason, Im fairly certain that the Eagle (should he definitively land in Detroit) will prove to be the Red Wings undoing next season.
Tuesday, July 04, 2006
F'ed in the A
I guess I should stop ignoring the White Elephant in the room and post something about the Pronger trade...
Let's see. Pronger for Lupul and a prospect (Smid) and some high picks (first rounder, a conditional first rounder and a second rounder).
Yup, it's an "F" alright: an F right in the A.
Or at least it seems to be - from an Oiler's perspective, anyways. Especially considering the short-term ramifications. Take a look at the Greaser's current blueline brigade, for instance:
- Steve Staios
- Jason Smith
- MA Bergeron
- Matt Greene
- (Syvret, Smid)?
One can almost hear Spacek's agent cackling gleefully. Not only did this weekend's activity set the bar obscenely high for slightly above average defensemen (like Spacek), but he now has mountains of leverage in the form of KLowe desperation which he will no doubt turn into a long-term, lucrative deal for his client. Just another gentleman caller looking to woo the Oil with his "rapist wit" (apologies to Dumb and Dumber).
Not that the Oil won't be well used and lubed by the time that comes around. First, Pronger screws them by demanding the trade. Then, a little drunk from their SCF run, they bow to the pressures of Roli and Pisani and overpay to keep them around. Then that wily ol' Burke sneaks up on them in the showers and delivers the above deal to boot.
Ouch.
Course, it's not really ALL bad. Edmonton has a ton of cap room and a pretty deep core of young, scoring forwards...especially with the addition of Lupul. IF Lowe can somehow patch the gaping 30 minute hole left by Pronger through trades or free agency, they might escape this whole debacle sans Pronger and pride but otherwise intact.
So what's left in the UFA pool anyways? Not much.
Gone are premium names like Redden, Chara, Jovo and Blake. Heck, even most of the 2nd-tier d-men have been claimed - McKee, Witt, Ward, Zyuzin, Kuba, Kubina, Gill, Pothier, Corvo, Mitchell, Johnsson - all snatched up between Saturday and Monday.
Which means there's certainly no ONE guy out there that can take Pronger's place in Edmonton. Here are some players who are (unofficially) still available:
Radoslav Suchy, Jason Woolley, Shane Hnidy, Daniel Tjarnqvist, Jiri Slegr, Ian Moran, Rory Fitzpatrick, Cale Hulse, Bryan Marchment, Jamie Pushor, John Erskine, Dick Tarnstrom, Joel Kwiatkowski, Jamie Allison, Alex Karpovtsev, Todd Simpson, Tommy Albelin, Joel Bouchard, Jason Strudwick, Brad Norton, Lyle Odelein, Patrick Traverse, Cory Cross, Igor Ulanov, Jamie Rivers, Chris McAllister, Kevin Dallman, Mathieu Biron, Jason Doig, Brad Brown
Assuming they'll re-sign Spacek, Edmonton will probably want at least one more d-man that can play 20 minutes a night. Radoslav Suchy maybe? Dallman? Erskine? Jason Woolley?? Of course, what if they DON'T re-sign Spacek? Which 2 of the above would you take to play top 4 minutes??? *shudder*
It's an unpleasant prospect to be certain. 'Course, there's always the trade route...though, considering the leagues frothing-at-the-mouth demand for quality defensemen currently, one can figure that a top 4 guy will come at a pretty significant cost. Is Hemsky, Stoll or Horcoff worth a top 4 guy? Would one of each even be enough in the current market?
Tough questions, tough call. Grabia has an exhaustive post at the Battle of Alberta for those of you that are morbidly curious about the future facing ol' Shelbyville...
As for the Anaheim perspective - well...
you give up a young up-coming scorer...something you have in spades anyhow. You acquire one of the top 5 d-men in the league, even though you ALREADY HAVE one of those in Niedermayer. With those two anchors on the back-end it almost doesn't matter who else they decide to dress on the blueline. Oh...and they have cap room to spare. Scary.
If Anaheim is able to garner the kind of seasons they got out of Selanne, Getzlaf, MacDonald and co. again next year, they could be a force to be reckoned with. One thing's for certain, though - the Battle of California is sure going to be interesting to watch.
Let's see. Pronger for Lupul and a prospect (Smid) and some high picks (first rounder, a conditional first rounder and a second rounder).
Yup, it's an "F" alright: an F right in the A.
Or at least it seems to be - from an Oiler's perspective, anyways. Especially considering the short-term ramifications. Take a look at the Greaser's current blueline brigade, for instance:
- Steve Staios
- Jason Smith
- MA Bergeron
- Matt Greene
- (Syvret, Smid)?
One can almost hear Spacek's agent cackling gleefully. Not only did this weekend's activity set the bar obscenely high for slightly above average defensemen (like Spacek), but he now has mountains of leverage in the form of KLowe desperation which he will no doubt turn into a long-term, lucrative deal for his client. Just another gentleman caller looking to woo the Oil with his "rapist wit" (apologies to Dumb and Dumber).
Not that the Oil won't be well used and lubed by the time that comes around. First, Pronger screws them by demanding the trade. Then, a little drunk from their SCF run, they bow to the pressures of Roli and Pisani and overpay to keep them around. Then that wily ol' Burke sneaks up on them in the showers and delivers the above deal to boot.
Ouch.
Course, it's not really ALL bad. Edmonton has a ton of cap room and a pretty deep core of young, scoring forwards...especially with the addition of Lupul. IF Lowe can somehow patch the gaping 30 minute hole left by Pronger through trades or free agency, they might escape this whole debacle sans Pronger and pride but otherwise intact.
So what's left in the UFA pool anyways? Not much.
Gone are premium names like Redden, Chara, Jovo and Blake. Heck, even most of the 2nd-tier d-men have been claimed - McKee, Witt, Ward, Zyuzin, Kuba, Kubina, Gill, Pothier, Corvo, Mitchell, Johnsson - all snatched up between Saturday and Monday.
Which means there's certainly no ONE guy out there that can take Pronger's place in Edmonton. Here are some players who are (unofficially) still available:
Radoslav Suchy, Jason Woolley, Shane Hnidy, Daniel Tjarnqvist, Jiri Slegr, Ian Moran, Rory Fitzpatrick, Cale Hulse, Bryan Marchment, Jamie Pushor, John Erskine, Dick Tarnstrom, Joel Kwiatkowski, Jamie Allison, Alex Karpovtsev, Todd Simpson, Tommy Albelin, Joel Bouchard, Jason Strudwick, Brad Norton, Lyle Odelein, Patrick Traverse, Cory Cross, Igor Ulanov, Jamie Rivers, Chris McAllister, Kevin Dallman, Mathieu Biron, Jason Doig, Brad Brown
Assuming they'll re-sign Spacek, Edmonton will probably want at least one more d-man that can play 20 minutes a night. Radoslav Suchy maybe? Dallman? Erskine? Jason Woolley?? Of course, what if they DON'T re-sign Spacek? Which 2 of the above would you take to play top 4 minutes??? *shudder*
It's an unpleasant prospect to be certain. 'Course, there's always the trade route...though, considering the leagues frothing-at-the-mouth demand for quality defensemen currently, one can figure that a top 4 guy will come at a pretty significant cost. Is Hemsky, Stoll or Horcoff worth a top 4 guy? Would one of each even be enough in the current market?
Tough questions, tough call. Grabia has an exhaustive post at the Battle of Alberta for those of you that are morbidly curious about the future facing ol' Shelbyville...
As for the Anaheim perspective - well...
you give up a young up-coming scorer...something you have in spades anyhow. You acquire one of the top 5 d-men in the league, even though you ALREADY HAVE one of those in Niedermayer. With those two anchors on the back-end it almost doesn't matter who else they decide to dress on the blueline. Oh...and they have cap room to spare. Scary.
If Anaheim is able to garner the kind of seasons they got out of Selanne, Getzlaf, MacDonald and co. again next year, they could be a force to be reckoned with. One thing's for certain, though - the Battle of California is sure going to be interesting to watch.
The Free Agent Feeding Frenzy
The madness began Saturday. And I don't think it's going to stop any time soon.
Looking at the large and lengthy deals being thrown at the various UFA's this weekend, "madness" is certainly an appropriate term. It almost seems like "Mad" Mike Milbury imposed his habit of conjuring albatross-type-contracts upon a sizable portion of the NHL's general managers - which is all the more baffling in light of the salary-capped CBA.
So, without further foreplay...let's examine the wreckage.
Saturday:
- Boston inks Chara and Savard to a massive five year deals, each worth 7.5 and 4 million per season respectively. This looks to me like a green GM earnestly trying to make a big splash in his new position. Both contracts are too long and too fat - Savard can't play defense, has never seen the post season and has inflated offensive stats thanks to playing alongside guys like Hossa and Kovalchuk on the PP. While Chara is indeed a premium blueliner, his huge, lanky frame probably comes with more risk from wear and tear than other players - that, and he always seems to struggle in the post-season. If either of these guys stumble in their first couple of seasons with Boston, the Bruins are gonna be stuck with $11.5 million worth of onerus headaches per season.
- The Flames replace Jordan Leopold with Andrei Zyuzin. Zyuzin can play top 4 minutes and comes at the relatively low price of 1.4/season. The Sutter connection should have disuaded from picking the wrong Wild d-man in this post.
- Carolina signs John Grahame. Meh.
- Chicago picks up Patrick Lalime. Great, now they have two horrible former #1 goalies.
- Detroit re-signs Chris Osgood. YAWN. The Red Wings better start looking for a new starter pretty soon. At least they didn't sign Lalime.
- Edmonton picks up Pisani and Roloson to 4 and 3 year deals respectively. As mentioned previously here, that's just too long (and too much) for both players. Roloson, a career back-up until last season, is now being paid more than Kiprusoff - and he's 36. Pisani had a career season and superb play-offs, but let's face it; he's a third line forward who's a Shean Donovan away from averaging 9 goals and 25 points a season for the next 4 years.
- The Kings coax Rob Blake back into the fold with a well-paying, but short, 2 year contract. That sounds about right.
- The Wild revolution continues with Minnesota adding Mark Parrish, Keith Carney and Kim Johnsson. Yikes. It looks like the Wild have finally grown weary of finishing last in the NW division.
- The Devils re-sign Langenbrunner to a 5 year, 2.8/season deal. Decent amount of money for a play-0ff performer, which probably mitigates the excessive length of the contract.
- The Rangers lock up Matt Cullen and the oft-forgotten Karel Rachunek. Cullen's 4 year, $11.2 million contract isn't a terrible burden, provided his career season last year wasn't a total aberration. He'll bring some grit and balance to New York's line-up. Not sure about Rachunek's deal, but Im guessing it'll be a brief 1 or 2 year "try out" contract. Im sure the Rags are hoping for another Roszival-type revelation in Rachunek.
- Ottawa shores up their goaltending and defense by adding former Hurricane Martin Gerber and offensively minded d-man Joe Corvo. Expect Gerber and Emery to split starting duties in the Capital next season. Corvo will probably get first unit PP time with Redden. Corvo's 4 year, 10.5/season contract is a risk, but could become a steal should he flourish in the fertile soil that is the Ottawa Senators.
- Phoenix grabs Jovo-cop for a staggering $6.5/season for 5 years. Too much and too long for an incomplete rearguard. Jovo is a big, mean, give-away machine. They should have signed someone nice and defensive, like Witt or McKee. Maybe the desert dogs will have the last laugh if Jovo leads the league in points by a defenseman next year. Course, I may still have the last laugh if he's -15.
- Tampa Bay signs...Andy Delmore? Why do teams keep picking this guy up? They also snagged my coveted Filip Kuba for 3 years, 3 million per. Nice length, too much money. Why is T-bay in cap trouble again?
- And now for some laughers - Toronto signs Pavel Kubina to a 4 year, $20 million deal and Hal Gill to a 3 year, $6.3 million contract. Yup, Pavel Kubina, he who has never broken the 40 point total and has never been better than +9 is being paid 5 MILLION DOLLARS. PER SEASON. Then there's Hal "the Glacier" Gill. Over 2 million a year for a guy who can neither skate nor score. I hope they pair him with Belak.
So now the Leafs have nearly $20 million in cap space tied up in 4 defensemen - and none of them are what I would consider clear cut "#1" guys. Smart. S-M-R-T.
- Vancouver bolsters their depleted blueline with Willie Mitchell. While the Canucks were badly in need of some depth on the back-end, Im not sure that paying a defensive defenseman $14 million over 4 years is a wise choice. At least he's a combined +44 over his last 3 seasons I guess.
- Washington plucks Pothier from the FA pool for $10 million over 4 years. This helps the Capitals get closer to the salary-basement while getting better on the back-end.
Worst Signings of the day:
Kubina, Roloson, Chara. In that order.
Sunday:
- Boston grabs our own erstwhile checker, Shean Donovan. His speed, grit and gap-toothed grin will be missed. His maddening inconsistency and offensive-zone hooking penalties will not.
- Florida grabs Ruslan salei for 4 years/12.1 million. $3mill./year? For SALEI? Most points in a season =20. Best plus/minus = +17. Well...I guess if Kubina's getting 5 mill...
- Nashville inks Jason Arnott to a 5 year/$22.5 million contract. Looks like Nashville's wish to get bigger down the middle made them overpay a tad. Arnott is a career 20-goal scorer who had a big (read: contract) season last year. If he doesn't come close to replicating his 30 goal/70 point numbers in Predators colors, they may be left lamenting the length of this contract.
- The Devils exascerbate their cap concerns by re-signing Patrik Elias to a monstrous 7 year, $42 million deal. He'll be 37 at end of this contract! Now, Elias is an elite first line left-winger...but there are simply too many variables and thus too much risk involved with a contract of this length - if Elias' play suddenly drops off 3 or 4 years from now, which is a possibility (see: Bill Guerin), the Devils will be stuck with this albatross for another 3 or 4 seasons. I can understand the compulsion to re-sign your marquee forward...but come on.
- The Islander's snag the ultimate journeyman Mike Sillinger to a relatively sane 3 year/$6.6 million deal. While I doubt he will have a repeat of his 30 goal season, he will no doubt bring some experience, leadership and stability to the Islanders forward corps. Good signing (can't remember the last time I said that about an Islander's deal).
- Alyn McCauley goes to the Kings. Three years, 6 million, not too bad.
- St. Louis removes Jay McKee from the market with a 4 year/$16 million contract. Jay McKee, who's career high is 5 goals. Good defensive defenseman, great shot-blocker...worth $4 million a year? No. I guess the Columbus Blue Jacket/Adam Foote experience hasn't really taught anyone anything.
Worst Signings of the Day:
Elias, McKee, Arnott.
Monday:
- Atlanta grabs Steve Rucchin. 3 years for about $2.8million a year, the Thrashers add a veteran 2-way presence for a pretty decent price.
- Rangers sign Aaron Ward to a 2 year/$5.5 million contract. Ward is only 33, but already has a ton of post-season experience and should stabilize the Rangers bottom-two pairing. Seems a little pricey at 2.75/year, but considering some of the other d-man deals going down...
- The Blues pick-up Guerin, Weight and Dan Hinote. Heck, they might actually have a NHL caliber roster next year. Weight will return for 3.5 mill./season for two years, while Guerin nabbed a one year contract for some mystery amount. The details surrounding the hinote deal are still fuzzy.
While adding the likes of aging stars Guerin and Weight may seem like a gamble, the Blues had very little to lose and a lot to gain. At the very least, neither of the ex-Oilers are inked for a long period of time, so the risk is minimal.
- Mike Griere and Curtis Brown both sign with the San Jose Sharks. The Griere contract is $1.75 million over 3 years. Both players were probably brought in to fill the checking-line holes left by the departures of Scott Thornton and Alyn McCauley.
- The Islanders sign Witt to a 3 year $(?) contract. Hard to evaluate the quality of this signing right now without the dollar amount. Im sure it's something absurd, given what similar guys like Willie Mitchell and Jay McKee were able to obtain. At least it's "only" a 3 year deal.
Worst Signings of the Day...none.
More to come...
Looking at the large and lengthy deals being thrown at the various UFA's this weekend, "madness" is certainly an appropriate term. It almost seems like "Mad" Mike Milbury imposed his habit of conjuring albatross-type-contracts upon a sizable portion of the NHL's general managers - which is all the more baffling in light of the salary-capped CBA.
So, without further foreplay...let's examine the wreckage.
Saturday:
- Boston inks Chara and Savard to a massive five year deals, each worth 7.5 and 4 million per season respectively. This looks to me like a green GM earnestly trying to make a big splash in his new position. Both contracts are too long and too fat - Savard can't play defense, has never seen the post season and has inflated offensive stats thanks to playing alongside guys like Hossa and Kovalchuk on the PP. While Chara is indeed a premium blueliner, his huge, lanky frame probably comes with more risk from wear and tear than other players - that, and he always seems to struggle in the post-season. If either of these guys stumble in their first couple of seasons with Boston, the Bruins are gonna be stuck with $11.5 million worth of onerus headaches per season.
- The Flames replace Jordan Leopold with Andrei Zyuzin. Zyuzin can play top 4 minutes and comes at the relatively low price of 1.4/season. The Sutter connection should have disuaded from picking the wrong Wild d-man in this post.
- Carolina signs John Grahame. Meh.
- Chicago picks up Patrick Lalime. Great, now they have two horrible former #1 goalies.
- Detroit re-signs Chris Osgood. YAWN. The Red Wings better start looking for a new starter pretty soon. At least they didn't sign Lalime.
- Edmonton picks up Pisani and Roloson to 4 and 3 year deals respectively. As mentioned previously here, that's just too long (and too much) for both players. Roloson, a career back-up until last season, is now being paid more than Kiprusoff - and he's 36. Pisani had a career season and superb play-offs, but let's face it; he's a third line forward who's a Shean Donovan away from averaging 9 goals and 25 points a season for the next 4 years.
- The Kings coax Rob Blake back into the fold with a well-paying, but short, 2 year contract. That sounds about right.
- The Wild revolution continues with Minnesota adding Mark Parrish, Keith Carney and Kim Johnsson. Yikes. It looks like the Wild have finally grown weary of finishing last in the NW division.
- The Devils re-sign Langenbrunner to a 5 year, 2.8/season deal. Decent amount of money for a play-0ff performer, which probably mitigates the excessive length of the contract.
- The Rangers lock up Matt Cullen and the oft-forgotten Karel Rachunek. Cullen's 4 year, $11.2 million contract isn't a terrible burden, provided his career season last year wasn't a total aberration. He'll bring some grit and balance to New York's line-up. Not sure about Rachunek's deal, but Im guessing it'll be a brief 1 or 2 year "try out" contract. Im sure the Rags are hoping for another Roszival-type revelation in Rachunek.
- Ottawa shores up their goaltending and defense by adding former Hurricane Martin Gerber and offensively minded d-man Joe Corvo. Expect Gerber and Emery to split starting duties in the Capital next season. Corvo will probably get first unit PP time with Redden. Corvo's 4 year, 10.5/season contract is a risk, but could become a steal should he flourish in the fertile soil that is the Ottawa Senators.
- Phoenix grabs Jovo-cop for a staggering $6.5/season for 5 years. Too much and too long for an incomplete rearguard. Jovo is a big, mean, give-away machine. They should have signed someone nice and defensive, like Witt or McKee. Maybe the desert dogs will have the last laugh if Jovo leads the league in points by a defenseman next year. Course, I may still have the last laugh if he's -15.
- Tampa Bay signs...Andy Delmore? Why do teams keep picking this guy up? They also snagged my coveted Filip Kuba for 3 years, 3 million per. Nice length, too much money. Why is T-bay in cap trouble again?
- And now for some laughers - Toronto signs Pavel Kubina to a 4 year, $20 million deal and Hal Gill to a 3 year, $6.3 million contract. Yup, Pavel Kubina, he who has never broken the 40 point total and has never been better than +9 is being paid 5 MILLION DOLLARS. PER SEASON. Then there's Hal "the Glacier" Gill. Over 2 million a year for a guy who can neither skate nor score. I hope they pair him with Belak.
So now the Leafs have nearly $20 million in cap space tied up in 4 defensemen - and none of them are what I would consider clear cut "#1" guys. Smart. S-M-R-T.
- Vancouver bolsters their depleted blueline with Willie Mitchell. While the Canucks were badly in need of some depth on the back-end, Im not sure that paying a defensive defenseman $14 million over 4 years is a wise choice. At least he's a combined +44 over his last 3 seasons I guess.
- Washington plucks Pothier from the FA pool for $10 million over 4 years. This helps the Capitals get closer to the salary-basement while getting better on the back-end.
Worst Signings of the day:
Kubina, Roloson, Chara. In that order.
Sunday:
- Boston grabs our own erstwhile checker, Shean Donovan. His speed, grit and gap-toothed grin will be missed. His maddening inconsistency and offensive-zone hooking penalties will not.
- Florida grabs Ruslan salei for 4 years/12.1 million. $3mill./year? For SALEI? Most points in a season =20. Best plus/minus = +17. Well...I guess if Kubina's getting 5 mill...
- Nashville inks Jason Arnott to a 5 year/$22.5 million contract. Looks like Nashville's wish to get bigger down the middle made them overpay a tad. Arnott is a career 20-goal scorer who had a big (read: contract) season last year. If he doesn't come close to replicating his 30 goal/70 point numbers in Predators colors, they may be left lamenting the length of this contract.
- The Devils exascerbate their cap concerns by re-signing Patrik Elias to a monstrous 7 year, $42 million deal. He'll be 37 at end of this contract! Now, Elias is an elite first line left-winger...but there are simply too many variables and thus too much risk involved with a contract of this length - if Elias' play suddenly drops off 3 or 4 years from now, which is a possibility (see: Bill Guerin), the Devils will be stuck with this albatross for another 3 or 4 seasons. I can understand the compulsion to re-sign your marquee forward...but come on.
- The Islander's snag the ultimate journeyman Mike Sillinger to a relatively sane 3 year/$6.6 million deal. While I doubt he will have a repeat of his 30 goal season, he will no doubt bring some experience, leadership and stability to the Islanders forward corps. Good signing (can't remember the last time I said that about an Islander's deal).
- Alyn McCauley goes to the Kings. Three years, 6 million, not too bad.
- St. Louis removes Jay McKee from the market with a 4 year/$16 million contract. Jay McKee, who's career high is 5 goals. Good defensive defenseman, great shot-blocker...worth $4 million a year? No. I guess the Columbus Blue Jacket/Adam Foote experience hasn't really taught anyone anything.
Worst Signings of the Day:
Elias, McKee, Arnott.
Monday:
- Atlanta grabs Steve Rucchin. 3 years for about $2.8million a year, the Thrashers add a veteran 2-way presence for a pretty decent price.
- Rangers sign Aaron Ward to a 2 year/$5.5 million contract. Ward is only 33, but already has a ton of post-season experience and should stabilize the Rangers bottom-two pairing. Seems a little pricey at 2.75/year, but considering some of the other d-man deals going down...
- The Blues pick-up Guerin, Weight and Dan Hinote. Heck, they might actually have a NHL caliber roster next year. Weight will return for 3.5 mill./season for two years, while Guerin nabbed a one year contract for some mystery amount. The details surrounding the hinote deal are still fuzzy.
While adding the likes of aging stars Guerin and Weight may seem like a gamble, the Blues had very little to lose and a lot to gain. At the very least, neither of the ex-Oilers are inked for a long period of time, so the risk is minimal.
- Mike Griere and Curtis Brown both sign with the San Jose Sharks. The Griere contract is $1.75 million over 3 years. Both players were probably brought in to fill the checking-line holes left by the departures of Scott Thornton and Alyn McCauley.
- The Islanders sign Witt to a 3 year $(?) contract. Hard to evaluate the quality of this signing right now without the dollar amount. Im sure it's something absurd, given what similar guys like Willie Mitchell and Jay McKee were able to obtain. At least it's "only" a 3 year deal.
Worst Signings of the Day...none.
More to come...
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